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Current Local Radar

Temperature
51°F
Feels Like:
51°F
Dew Point	Humidity
28°F	41%

Partly Cloudy

Wind Strength
Light	Moderate	Strong
Northeast at 11 mph

Local Graphical Forecast (Updated: 05/11/21 11:23 pm)

Thursday (1/1)
Day	Night


High	Low

Detailed Text Forecast (Updated: 05/11/21 11:23 pm)

Thursday:

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SPC Convective Outlook Day 1

See Product Description

185
ACUS01 KWNS 112154
SWODY1
SPC AC 112153

Day 1 Convective Outlook AMEND 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0453 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

Valid 112150Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS...AND WESTERN LOUISIANA...

AMENDED TO ADD SLIGHT INTO LOUISIANA AHEAD OF SEVERE STORMS IN TEXAS

...SUMMARY...
Large hail will be possible today across central Texas, while large
hail and damaging gusts may occur later this afternoon/evening
across parts of south central Texas. More isolated severe storms
will be possible farther east into the lower Mississippi Valley and
the Southeast.

...2150Z update...
Extended Slight Risk into western Louisiana ahead of an organized
line of severe storms. For more information see mesoscale discussion
595.

...20Z update...
Minor adjustments were made to clear severe from parts of northwest
Texas in the wake of the ongoing storms now moving across north
Texas. Otherwise, substantial instability remains across the Slight
Risk area south of the cold front, with sufficient deep-layer shear
to support severe storms. Isolated supercells remain possible ahead
of the front into east Texas, and with activity developing over
Mexico which will threaten the Rio Grande Valley later today.

The Slight Risk was also expanded a bit across Deep South Texas, in
deference to the very strong instability which could fuel an MCS
later tonight as the front continues south, and possibly interacts
with activity/outflow moving out of Mexico. Capping is forecast to
remain weak, supporting southeastward propagation. Damaging winds
will be possible.

For more information on the Rio Grande Valley, southern Alabama, and
east Texas, see mesoscale discussions 592, 593, and 594
(respectively).

..Jewell.. 05/11/2021

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021/

...TX to the lower MS Valley through tonight...
Multiple clusters of elevated thunderstorms are ongoing from the
Edwards Plateau in TX northeastward into OK in association with
850-700 mb warm advection, downstream from a series of subtle
southern-stream speed maxima ejecting eastward in advance of a
midlevel trough over UT/CO. Other clusters of storms have shown
signs of slow weakening across southern LA in a weak low-level warm
advection zone north of a surface front that is sagging southward.
The slow-moving front extends westward across southeast TX and
southwestward into south central TX. South of the front, an influx
of mid 70s boundary-layer dewpoints continues from the Gulf of
Mexico, beneath an elevated mixed layer extending northeastward over
TX from northern Mexico.

The combination of steep midlevel lapse rates and moisture influx
into the warm advection zone atop the frontal surface will continue
to support elevated thunderstorms spreading eastward from TX to the
lower MS Valley through tonight. The more consistent threat for
large hail with the stronger elevated storms will be today across TX
where moderate buoyancy remains aloft, prior to more widespread
convective overturning and reduction of midlevel lapse rates.
Farther south along the front, moderate-strong buoyancy (MLCAPE up
to 3000 J/kg) is expected with daytime heating from portions of the
Rio Grande Valley into southeast TX. Isolated storms may form along
the front and pose a large hail threat. There is also a chance for
mergers of the frontal storms with convection originating east of
the higher terrain in northeast Mexico, which could lead to the
development of a larger cluster this evening across south central
TX.

...Southern AL/FL Panhandle to southern GA this afternoon...
Isolated strong-severe storms will be possible within and east of a
cluster of storms moving eastward over the MS coast as of late
morning, as well as along and south of a diffuse boundary across
southern GA. Effective bulk shear of 25-35 kt and MLCAPE of
1000-1500 J/kg will support the potential for isolated large
hail/damaging gusts.

$$

The "Convective Outlooks" issued by SPC can be thought of as a detailed discussion of the Severe Thunderstorm threat and it's associated risks nationwide. Risk levels range from Marginal to Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High and are issued based on the likelihood of 3 major severe weather threats; the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. These discussions are often heavily laced meteorological terminology that may be difficult to understand without a background in the field. However understanding these discussions shouldn't be thought of as necessary. Instead, should DuPage county fall under one of these threat levels for severe weather, the response should be to have a heightened level of awareness about the deveoloping weather. Keep an eye on the "Watch County Notification" for any active severe weather watches issued for DuPage county; the "Hazardous Weather Outlook" and "Severe Weather Statement" can also be helpful in explaining the developing risk; additionally, watch for "Active Weather Warnings" and keep an eye on our "Regional Satellite and Radar" products which can be viewed with active watches/warnings or lightning activity.

SPC Convective Outlook Day 2

See Product Description

255
ACUS02 KWNS 111718
SWODY2
SPC AC 111717

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1217 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN
GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible Wednesday across parts
of northern Florida and southern Georgia. Localized wind damage or
marginal hail will be possible.

...Southern GA into northern FL...
As a low-amplitude upper trough exits the Mid Atlantic, moderate
westerly flow aloft will remain over much of the Southeast. At the
surface, high pressure will exist over much of the central and
eastern CONUS, the exception being over southern MS/AL/GA and FL,
south of a cold front. Mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will exist south
of this front, with the greatest low-level lapse rates/heating
developing over FL and southern GA. Forecast soundings yield
1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE, with modest deep-layer shear of 35 or 40 kt
maximized along the cold front.

A few storms may be ongoing Wednesday morning across the northern
Gulf of Mexico or into southern MS and AL, and may continue east
during the day. Additional development is expected along and ahead
of the front during the afternoon. Sufficiently long, straight-line
hodographs will favor cells capable of marginal hail, with locally
damaging gusts possible with any larger clusters of storms.

..Jewell.. 05/11/2021

$$

The "Convective Outlooks" issued by SPC can be thought of as a detailed discussion of the Severe Thunderstorm threat and it's associated risks nationwide. Risk levels range from Marginal to Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High and are issued based on the likelihood of 3 major severe weather threats; the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. These discussions are often heavily laced meteorological terminology that may be difficult to understand without a background in the field. However understanding these discussions shouldn't be thought of as necessary. Instead, should DuPage county fall under one of these threat levels for severe weather, the response should be to have a heightened level of awareness about the deveoloping weather. Keep an eye on the "Watch County Notification" for any active severe weather watches issued for DuPage county; the "Hazardous Weather Outlook" and "Severe Weather Statement" can also be helpful in explaining the developing risk; additionally, watch for "Active Weather Warnings" and keep an eye on our "Regional Satellite and Radar" products which can be viewed with active watches/warnings or lightning activity.

SPC Convective Outlook Day 3

See Product Description

689
ACUS03 KWNS 110727
SWODY3
SPC AC 110726

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous
United States on Thursday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A shortwave trough is forecast to move from the lower/mid MS Valley
across the Southeast on Thursday. Surface high pressure should
remain prominent over much of the central/eastern CONUS, with a
front extending over the Gulf of Mexico and the vicinity of northern
FL. Rich low-level moisture will likely remain confined to locations
along/south of this boundary through the period. Convection should
develop across parts of the FL Peninsula through the day, but the
stronger mid-level flow associated with the shortwave trough will
probably be displaced generally north of the surface front. Although
a strong storm or two may occur across some portion of the FL
Peninsula Thursday afternoon given the moderate instability
forecast, deep-layer shear currently appears too marginal to include
low severe probabilities.

Other storms may occur across parts of the northern and central
Plains in association with a southwesterly low-level jet and related
warm advection. Moisture should remain quite limited across this
region owing to the frontal intrusion over the Gulf of Mexico, and
instability is likewise forecast to remain weak. Elsewhere, isolated
storms appear possible Thursday across parts of the southern High
Plains as modest low-level moisture returns, and across parts of the
northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains as a weak mid-level
perturbation traverses this area.

..Gleason.. 05/11/2021

$$

The "Convective Outlooks" issued by SPC can be thought of as a detailed discussion of the Severe Thunderstorm threat and it's associated risks nationwide. Risk levels range from Marginal to Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High and are issued based on the likelihood of 3 major severe weather threats; the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. These discussions are often heavily laced meteorological terminology that may be difficult to understand without a background in the field. However understanding these discussions shouldn't be thought of as necessary. Instead, should DuPage county fall under one of these threat levels for severe weather, the response should be to have a heightened level of awareness about the deveoloping weather. Keep an eye on the "Watch County Notification" for any active severe weather watches issued for DuPage county; the "Hazardous Weather Outlook" and "Severe Weather Statement" can also be helpful in explaining the developing risk; additionally, watch for "Active Weather Warnings" and keep an eye on our "Regional Satellite and Radar" products which can be viewed with active watches/warnings or lightning activity.