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Current Conditions

A message from COD Meteorology

Current Local Radar

Temperature
60°F
Feels Like:
60°F
Dew Point	Humidity
46°F	60%

Overcast

Wind Strength
Light	Moderate	Strong
Northwest at 11 mph

Local Graphical Forecast (Updated: 10/15/21 3:15 pm)

Friday (10/15)
Day	Night

40%	40%
High	Low
60	42

Saturday (10/16)
Day	Night


High	Low
59	41

Sunday (10/17)
Day	Night


High	Low
64	44

Monday (10/18)
Day	Night


High	Low
69	50

Tuesday (10/19)
Day	Night


High	Low
71	53

Wednesday (10/20)
Day	Night

15%	30%
High	Low
71	53

Thursday (10/21)
Day	Night

30%
High	Low
63

Detailed Text Forecast (Updated: 10/15/21 3:15 pm)

Friday: Scattered showers. Cloudy, with a high near 60. North northwest wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Friday Night: Scattered showers, mainly before 10pm. Cloudy during the early evening, then gradual clearing, with a low around 42. West northwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 59. Breezy, with a west northwest wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

Saturday Night: Clear, with a low around 41. West wind 5 to 10 mph.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 64. West wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Sunday Night: Clear, with a low around 44.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 69.

Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 50.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 71.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 53.

Wednesday: A slight chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 71.

Wednesday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53.

Thursday: A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 63.

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SPC Convective Outlook Day 1

See Product Description

280
ACUS01 KWNS 151936
SWODY1
SPC AC 151935

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0235 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021

Valid 152000Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MID-SOUTH/TN VALLEY AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe gusts and hail, along with a marginal tornado
threat, are expected today from parts of Arkansas across the Ohio
Valley into western New York.

...20Z Update...

...Mid-South/TN Valley...
Recent surface analysis places a low over the MO Bootheel/far
northeast AR vicinity, with a cold front extending southwestward
from the low across central AR and into northeast TX. Thunderstorms
have developed along this front, as well as within the broad warm
sector ahead of it. Expectation is for the front to continue
eastward as the surface low moves east-northeastward and the upper
trough approaches. The front will likely overtake the preceding
storms later this evening, while increased large-scale forcing for
ascent help form a more coherent line. This could result in a brief
period of a more organized linear structure in the western TN
vicinity before limited instability and nocturnal stabilization
result in a more outflow dominant storm structure. However, the
limited buoyancy and relatively weak/veered low-level flow should
preclude robust organization and the potential for widespread severe
that would merit an upgrade to ENH.

...Middle OH Valley into western New York...
Recent surface analysis places a low about 20 miles southeast of
TOL. A cold front extends southwestward from this back across IN,
while a warm front extends northeastward along the southern coast of
Lake Erie and into western NY. Showers and thunderstorms will
continue to develop within the warm sector between these fronts.
Instability is modest but wind profiles support supercell structures
with any more robust/prolonged updrafts. As a result, the threat for
isolated wind damage and/or brief tornadoes will continue through
the afternoon into the early evening.

..Mosier.. 10/15/2021

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021/

...Lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley region...

Cold front extends from a weak surface low in northeast IN southwest
through southeast MO and northwest AR. A moist warm sector is in
place with dewpoints around 70 F from western TN, northern MS into
AR. However, morning RAOB data show a pronounced subsidence
inversion near 600 mb with a substantial dry layer above. This type
of profile may tend to limit updraft accelerations to some degree.
Nevertheless, effective bulk shear with 45+ kt is supportive of some
organized storm structures. Several MCVs are evident including one
over southeast MO, and another farther west across northwest AR, and
these features may tend to augment storm development as the boundary
layer destabilizes. Visible imagery shows stratus beginning to erode
from the southwest across AR and this trend should spread northeast
with time. Storms are expected to undergo a slow but gradual
increase in coverage and intensity as the atmosphere begins to
destabilize with MLCAPE up to 1500 J/kg expected during the
afternoon. Strong effective bulk shear will support both supercells
and bowing segments with damaging wind the main threat. Low-level
hodographs are expected to remain modest in size due to veered winds
in the lowest 2 km. However, a couple of tornadoes cannot be ruled
out, especially with any supercell structures. Activity will likely
evolve into an organized line as it continues east through the TN
Valley this evening. Some potential for an ENH exists for wind, and
this will be re-evaluated in the upcoming 20Z outlook.

...Ohio Valley into western New York...

As of mid day a warm front extends from the lower Great Lakes
through western and central PA, and isolated storms have recently
intensified in the warm advection zone in vicinity of this boundary
across northwest PA. Farther west a cold front extends from a
surface low in northeast IN southwest into southeast MO. The warm
sector remains marginally unstable with 500-800 J/kg. Pockets of
heating will contribute to further boundary layer destabilization,
especially from northeast OH into PA with MLCAPE up to 1200 J/kg
possible during the afternoon. The 12Z Raob from Pittsburgh showed
minimal inhibition, and isolated storms may develop in the warm
sector as surface heating continues. Farther north and west,
additional storms will likely develop along the cold front from
northwest OH into IN and spread east into the lower Great Lakes. An
MCV is currently located along the IN/OH border and this feature may
foster a relative concentration of storms along the front. Wind
profiles with up to 40 kt effective bulk shear will support some
supercell structures with isolated damaging wind the main threat.
Low-level hodographs are rather modest, but a tornado or two cannot
be ruled out especially with any isolated supercell interacting with
the warm front from the lower Great Lakes region into central PA
later this afternoon.

$$

The "Convective Outlooks" issued by SPC can be thought of as a detailed discussion of the Severe Thunderstorm threat and it's associated risks nationwide. Risk levels range from Marginal to Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High and are issued based on the likelihood of 3 major severe weather threats; the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. These discussions are often heavily laced meteorological terminology that may be difficult to understand without a background in the field. However understanding these discussions shouldn't be thought of as necessary. Instead, should DuPage county fall under one of these threat levels for severe weather, the response should be to have a heightened level of awareness about the deveoloping weather. Keep an eye on the "Watch County Notification" for any active severe weather watches issued for DuPage county; the "Hazardous Weather Outlook" and "Severe Weather Statement" can also be helpful in explaining the developing risk; additionally, watch for "Active Weather Warnings" and keep an eye on our "Regional Satellite and Radar" products which can be viewed with active watches/warnings or lightning activity.

SPC Convective Outlook Day 2

See Product Description

287
ACUS02 KWNS 151712
SWODY2
SPC AC 151711

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1211 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEASTERN U.S....

...SUMMARY...
Potential for a few damaging wind gusts will exist across portions
of the Northeast and vicinity on Saturday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A deep upper trough is forecast to extend from northern Manitoba
across western Ontario, the Upper Great Lakes/Upper Midwest, and
the Mid MS Valley early Saturday. This upper trough is expected to
move northeastward throughout the day, encouraged by the fast
northeastward progression of an embedded shortwave trough moving
from the middle OH Valley/Lower MI through the Northeast into New
England. A surface low attendant to this embedded shortwave is
expected to begin the period over far southern Quebec before
continuing northward while occluding. Cold front attendant to this
low will push eastward throughout the day, from its early morning
position just east of the Appalachian crest to off the Eastern
Seaboard. By early Sunday morning, the front will likely have moved
entirely offshore, with the exception of South Florida and the Keys.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of this front,
with the strong flow aloft in place from northern Mid-Atlantic into
New England contributing to the potential for a few more robust
storms capable of damaging wind gusts. However, the overall severe
threat is expected to remain isolated, owing to limited
heating/buoyancy ahead of the front. Most likely corridor for strong
gusts currently appears to be from eastern PA northeastward across
northern/central NJ and the Hudson Valley into western MA/CT.

Stable conditions are expected across the remainder of the CONUS,
precluding thunderstorm development.

..Mosier.. 10/15/2021

$$

The "Convective Outlooks" issued by SPC can be thought of as a detailed discussion of the Severe Thunderstorm threat and it's associated risks nationwide. Risk levels range from Marginal to Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High and are issued based on the likelihood of 3 major severe weather threats; the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. These discussions are often heavily laced meteorological terminology that may be difficult to understand without a background in the field. However understanding these discussions shouldn't be thought of as necessary. Instead, should DuPage county fall under one of these threat levels for severe weather, the response should be to have a heightened level of awareness about the deveoloping weather. Keep an eye on the "Watch County Notification" for any active severe weather watches issued for DuPage county; the "Hazardous Weather Outlook" and "Severe Weather Statement" can also be helpful in explaining the developing risk; additionally, watch for "Active Weather Warnings" and keep an eye on our "Regional Satellite and Radar" products which can be viewed with active watches/warnings or lightning activity.