SPC Convective Outlook Day 1

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323
ACUS01 KWNS 220443
SWODY1
SPC AC 220441

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST NM
ACROSS NORTHWEST TX AND INTO FAR SOUTHWEST OK...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of mainly hail and damaging
winds are possible from southeast New Mexico across the South Plains
and into parts of northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma from late
afternoon Monday through evening. Isolated strong to severe storms
are also possible across parts of southern Wisconsin, eastern Iowa,
and northern Illinois. A weak, brief tornado cannot be ruled out in
either area.

...Synopsis...
An upper low will drop south from AZ into northwest Mexico with a
leading shortwave disturbance moving out of northern Mexico across
west TX. At the surface, a stalling front will stretch roughly from
southeast NM into central OK by 00Z, with winds veering to easterly
across the High Plains. Mid to upper level southwesterly winds will
increase to an average of 40-70 kt respectively, enhancing the
potential for scattered severe storms.

To the north, a shortwave trough will move into the upper MS Valley
during the afternoon, with a surface low moving from IA into MI.
Southerly winds will increase ahead of this low, enhancing low-level
shear, with the low track becoming a favorable corridor for isolated
severe storms.

...Southeast NM...South Plains...Southwest OK...
Scattered storms are expected to form around 21Z from central and
southeast NM into parts of west TX, where heating is strongest south
of the front. Hail is possible with the NM cells, as well as into
the South Plains. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out near peak
heating, near the boundary, and before cells grow upscale into a
possible MCS. The greatest potential for damaging winds will likely
be along the boundary, extending into northwest TX, as storms move
along it, aided by strong east/northeast surface winds just north of
the boundary. A few storms may remain strong to severe into far
southwest OK, before the air mass overturns with more widespread
precipitation.

...Eastern IA...northern IL...southern WI...
Upstream heating of a 50s dewpoint air mass and increasing southerly
winds ahead of the surface low will result in an axis of around 1000
J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon across IA/IL/WI. Forecast soundings show
some capping around 700 mb, but lift near the low track is expected
to support thunderstorm development, which will be centered over the
tri-state area. While winds in the mid and upper levels will not be
particularly strong (short hodographs), low-level veering of the
winds with height may support rotating storms with marginal hail,
wind, or a brief tornado (especially over WI where LCLs will be
lower).

..Jewell/Karstens.. 04/22/2019

$$

The "Convective Outlooks" issued by SPC can be thought of as a detailed discussion of the Severe Thunderstorm threat and it's associated risks nationwide. Risk levels range from Marginal to Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High and are issued based on the likelihood of 3 major severe weather threats; the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. These discussions are often heavily laced meteorological terminology that may be difficult to understand without a background in the field. However understanding these discussions shouldn't be thought of as necessary. Instead, should DuPage county fall under one of these threat levels for severe weather, the response should be to have a heightened level of awareness about the deveoloping weather. Keep an eye on the "Watch County Notification" for any active severe weather watches issued for DuPage county; the "Hazardous Weather Outlook" and "Severe Weather Statement" can also be helpful in explaining the developing risk; additionally, watch for "Active Weather Warnings" and keep an eye on our "Regional Satellite and Radar" products which can be viewed with active watches/warnings or lightning activity.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

See Product Description

347
FLUS43 KLOT 212041
HWOLOT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL
341 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-
222045-
Winnebago-Boone-McHenry-Lake IL-Ogle-Lee-DeKalb-Kane-DuPage-Cook-
La Salle-Kendall-Grundy-Will-Kankakee-Livingston-Iroquois-Ford-
Lake IN-Porter-Newton-Jasper-Benton-
341 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019 /441 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North Central
Illinois...Northeast Illinois and Northwest Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Monday...
Limited Thunderstorm Risk in the afternoon and evening.
Elevated Fire Weather Risk.
Thursday...
Limited Thunderstorm Risk.

DISCUSSION:

Dry, warm and breezy conditions on Monday afternoon may increase
the risk for more rapid spread of brush fires, especially for
portions of northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana. There is a
chance for scattered thunderstorms mid to late Monday afternoon
into Monday evening, with the highest chance roughly west and
north of a Waukegan to Rochelle to Sterling line. A few of the
thunderstorms may become strong with a risk for hail and gusty
winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be necessary through tonight.

$$

LMZ740>745-222045-
Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor-
Wilmette Harbor to Northerly Island-
Northerly Island to Calumet Harbor-Calumet Harbor to Gary-
Gary to Burns Harbor-Burns Harbor to Michigan City-
341 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Illinois
nearshore waters of Lake Michigan and the Indiana nearshore
waters of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Monday...
Hazardous conditions for small craft are likely.
Limited Thunderstorm Risk.
Thursday...
Limited Thunderstorm Risk.

$$

RC

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The "Hazardous Weather Outlook" contains information regarding any and all weather expected to occur within the region that could be hazardous to travel, life or property. This is one of our most highly recommended products to check on a daily basis, and it some cases multiple times per day should significant weather be expected to affect DuPage county.

SPC Convective Outlook Day 2

See Product Description

379
ACUS02 KWNS 220541
SWODY2
SPC AC 220540

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with an isolated large hail and wind damage
threat are expected to develop across parts of Texas on Tuesday
afternoon and evening.

...Southern Plains...
An upper-level low will move slowly southeastward across northern
Mexico on Tuesday as west to southwest mid-level flow remains over
the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front will move
southeastward across west-central and north-central Texas. The
airmass will moisten south of the front with surface dewpoints
reaching the mid to upper 60s F. In response, a pocket of moderate
instability is forecast to develop along and just south of the front
from Del Rio extending east-northeastward into the Texas Hill
Country. Thunderstorms are forecast to initiate and organize along
the front during the late afternoon where the models are showing
steep low to mid-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear.
For this reason, a severe threat is expected to develop across
southwest and central Texas from the late afternoon into the
evening. Supercells with large hail and wind damage will be
possible. Organized multicells with damaging wind gusts and hail
appear likely in areas where mesoscale conditions become most
favorable.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado: 2% - Marginal
Wind: 15% - Slight
Hail: 15% - Slight

..Broyles.. 04/22/2019

$$

The "Convective Outlooks" issued by SPC can be thought of as a detailed discussion of the Severe Thunderstorm threat and it's associated risks nationwide. Risk levels range from Marginal to Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High and are issued based on the likelihood of 3 major severe weather threats; the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. These discussions are often heavily laced meteorological terminology that may be difficult to understand without a background in the field. However understanding these discussions shouldn't be thought of as necessary. Instead, should DuPage county fall under one of these threat levels for severe weather, the response should be to have a heightened level of awareness about the deveoloping weather. Keep an eye on the "Watch County Notification" for any active severe weather watches issued for DuPage county; the "Hazardous Weather Outlook" and "Severe Weather Statement" can also be helpful in explaining the developing risk; additionally, watch for "Active Weather Warnings" and keep an eye on our "Regional Satellite and Radar" products which can be viewed with active watches/warnings or lightning activity.

SPC Convective Outlook Day 3

See Product Description

482
ACUS03 KWNS 210707
SWODY3
SPC AC 210706

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WEST...CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with an isolated wind damage and hail
threat are expected to develop across parts of Texas on Tuesday
afternoon and evening.

...Southern Plains...
An upper-level low will move southeastward from the Desert Southwest
into northern Mexico on Tuesday. Southwest mid-level flow will
remain over the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front is
forecast to move southeastward across central and northeast Texas.
The models suggest that surface-based thunderstorms will develop
along the boundary during the afternoon and evening. NAM and GFS
forecast soundings early Tuesday evening in the Texas Hill Country
suggest that moderate instability and deep-layer shear will be in
place. For this reason, a severe threat is expected to develop along
the front during the late afternoon and early evening. However,
confidence in the forecast front position is not great enough to
issue a slight risk at this time.

..Broyles.. 04/21/2019

$$

The "Convective Outlooks" issued by SPC can be thought of as a detailed discussion of the Severe Thunderstorm threat and it's associated risks nationwide. Risk levels range from Marginal to Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High and are issued based on the likelihood of 3 major severe weather threats; the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. These discussions are often heavily laced meteorological terminology that may be difficult to understand without a background in the field. However understanding these discussions shouldn't be thought of as necessary. Instead, should DuPage county fall under one of these threat levels for severe weather, the response should be to have a heightened level of awareness about the deveoloping weather. Keep an eye on the "Watch County Notification" for any active severe weather watches issued for DuPage county; the "Hazardous Weather Outlook" and "Severe Weather Statement" can also be helpful in explaining the developing risk; additionally, watch for "Active Weather Warnings" and keep an eye on our "Regional Satellite and Radar" products which can be viewed with active watches/warnings or lightning activity.

Special Weather Statement

See Product Description

No active Special Weather Statement for DuPage County.

The "Special Weather Statement" details notable weather either occuring or expected to occur, but does not necessarily have to be considered severe or hazardous. This is a supplementary product issued by the National Weather Service to help describe noteworthy weather. It's terminology should be reasonably easy to understand by the general public.

Watch County Notification

See Product Description

No active Watch County Notification for DuPage County.

The "Watch County Notification" will contain updates regarding active severe weather watches that pertain to DuPage county. This may be for a newly issued watch, or the cancelation of an existing watch. Severe weather watches come in two forms; Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado, and it should be noted that a Severe Thunderstorm Watch does NOT rule out the possibility of tornadoes occuring. It generally means that the tornado threat is minimal while damaging winds and hail are still likely. See our "Watch, Warning, and Advisory Criteria" for more detailed information on the differences and critera for watches, warnings and advisory for all forms of weather.

Winter Weather Statement

See Product Description

No active Winter Weather Statement for DuPage County.

The "Winter Weather Statement" is a product aimed at the general public that will discuss impacts caused by winter weather. This may include information about watches, warnings and advisories as well as details about impactful winter weather that may not warrant the issuance of a watch, warning or advisory.

Severe Weather Statement

See Product Description

No active Severe Weather Statement for DuPage County.

The "Severe Weather Statement" is a product aimed at the general public that will discuss impacts caused by severe thunderstorms. This may include information about watches and warnings as well as details about impactful "sub-severe" weather that may not warrant the issuance of a watch or warning which sometimes may come when a watch or warning has been canceled.

Non-Precip Statement

See Product Description

No active Non-Precip Statement for DuPage County.

The "Non-Precip Statement" is aimed at the general public and will detail notable weather that is either occuring or expected to occur, but does not relate to any form of precipitation. These would include but are not limited to high winds, reduced visibility or extreme temperatures.

Active Weather Warnings

Tornado Warnings

No active Tornado Warnings.

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings

No active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings.

Flood Warnings

No active Flood Warnings.

Winter Weather Warnings

No active Winter Weather Warnings.

General Tornado/Severe Weather Safety

1. A Tornado or Severe Thunderstorm Warning is issued when it has been reported, or when it has been detected via National Weather Service radar. It is to be interpreted that this event is occuring and is expected to affect all warned areas. Those within the warning need to take action immediately.
2. If under a warning remain calm and if it is necessary to seek shelter. Students and Employees should head to their nearest designated shelter area. The route to these shelter areas are posted in all rooms on campus and signs are placed in the hallways to direct you to the nearest shelter area. Review these instructions and be familiar with where your nearest shelter is. Stay indoors, away from windows and large unsupported ceilings. Faculty should account for their students and Supervisors should account for their areas employees.
3. If outside, take shelter in the nearest building.
4. After the storm has passed, dial Police at 911 to report any injuries or damage to buildings.
5. If the building is severely damaged, evacuate the building as soon as possible after the storm has passed.