SPC Convective Outlook Day 1

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362
ACUS01 KWNS 061631
SWODY1
SPC AC 061629

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1029 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Valid 061630Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from mid-afternoon
through tonight across parts of the southern/central Plains to the
Ozarks and Midwest. The greatest potential for a few strong
tornadoes and very large hail should exist across eastern portions
of Oklahoma/Kansas/Nebraska into western Arkansas/Missouri and
southern Iowa.

...Central Plains and Midwest/Great Lakes...
Low-level moisture will continue to stream northward today ahead of
the cold front across east-central Nebraska and western Kansas, with
upper 50s to low 60s F surface dewpoints common by mid afternoon.
Cold temperatures aloft and steepened mid-level lapse rates will
support the development of at least 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE with
daytime heating. More instability may exist farther south into
Kansas where greater low-level moisture will be in place, although
such details are complicated by existing convection/cloud cover
across eastern Kansas into northwest Missouri at mid-morning.

Current expectations are for scattered robust thunderstorms to
develop around mid afternoon (20-22Z) across southeast
Nebraska/northern Kansas and vicinity, in close proximity to the
surface low and ejecting shortwave trough. Strong deep-layer shear
associated with a 50-70+ kt mid-level jet will easily support
organized updrafts including multiple supercells initially. This
activity will pose a risk for large to very large hail, but fairly
quick upscale growth into one or more bowing clusters with a wind
damage threat seems probable along/ahead of the cold front as
convection spreads into Iowa/Missouri this evening. Some risk for at
least isolated severe/damaging winds may persist late tonight into
early Saturday morning across Wisconsin/Illinois and Lower Michigan
if these clusters can maintain intensity, although instability is
forecast to become more limited with eastward extent across these
areas.

A few tornadoes may occur with sustained supercells or embedded QLCS
circulations across the central Plains/Midwest along/south of the
warm front given favorable low-level shear and enlarged/curved
hodographs. Pending development into the warm sector, a strong
tornado could occur with any supercells this evening as low-level
shear strengthens in tandem with a south-southwesterly low-level
jet.

...Southern Plains and Ozarks...
Thunderstorms have increased and locally intensified this morning
across north-central Oklahoma into southeast Kansas, complicating
the later-day scenario somewhat with poorly resolved
short-term/convective details in guidance. Convective initiation
along the length of the dryline in Oklahoma/Texas still remains a
bit uncertain this afternoon/evening, as low-level convergence will
be weak and stronger large-scale ascent associated with the ejecting
shortwave trough will remain mostly displaced to the north of the
region. Even so, especially to the south of aforementioned early day
storms, at least isolated deep convective development is plausible
into mid/afternoon in areas near the dryline, but perhaps more
likely to its east potentially related to differential
heating/somewhat richer low-level moisture.

Where cells can sustain and mature, they would likely become severe
and pose a threat for very large hail given the presence of steep
mid-level lapse rates noted on the 12Z OUN observed sounding, along
with around 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear aiding updraft
organization. The tornado threat would also increase this evening
with any persistent supercells as low-level shear gradually
strengthens. Additional and more probable robust thunderstorm
development remains apparent later this evening/tonight as the cold
front accelerates south-southeastward. Both large hail and damaging
winds may occur with this overnight activity through the end of the
period.

..Guyer/Kerr.. 03/06/2026

$$

The "Convective Outlooks" issued by SPC can be thought of as a detailed discussion of the Severe Thunderstorm threat and it's associated risks nationwide. Risk levels range from Marginal to Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High and are issued based on the likelihood of 3 major severe weather threats; the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. These discussions are often heavily laced meteorological terminology that may be difficult to understand without a background in the field. However understanding these discussions shouldn't be thought of as necessary. Instead, should DuPage county fall under one of these threat levels for severe weather, the response should be to have a heightened level of awareness about the deveoloping weather. Keep an eye on the "Watch County Notification" for any active severe weather watches issued for DuPage county; the "Hazardous Weather Outlook" and "Severe Weather Statement" can also be helpful in explaining the developing risk; additionally, watch for "Active Weather Warnings" and keep an eye on our "Regional Satellite and Radar" products which can be viewed with active watches/warnings or lightning activity.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

See Product Description

461
FLUS43 KLOT 061745
HWOLOT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL
1145 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

ILZ003>006-008-010>013-019>021-023-032-033-039-103>108-INZ001-002-
010-011-019-071745-
Winnebago-Boone-McHenry-Lake IL-Ogle-Lee-De Kalb-Kane-DuPage-
La Salle-Kendall-Grundy-Kankakee-Livingston-Iroquois-Ford-
Northern Cook-Central Cook-Southern Cook-Northern Will-
Southern Will-Eastern Will-Lake IN-Porter-Newton-Jasper-Benton-
1145 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026 /1245 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

Elevated Thunderstorm Risk...with an associated:
Level 2 of 5 Damaging Wind Risk...up to 60 mph.
Level 2 of 5 Large Hail Risk...up to one inch.
Level 1 of 5 Tornado Risk.
Limited Flooding Risk.
Limited Fog Risk.

DISCUSSION...

Periods of thunderstorms are expected through tonight. Heavy rain
and localized flooding will be possible with any of these
thunderstorms.

Some of these thunderstorms may become severe late this afternoon
and again late tonight. Large hail and locally damaging winds
will be possible with the strongest storms. There is also a risk
for tornadoes with any thunderstorms that develop this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Saturday...
Limited Thunderstorm Risk in the morning.
Tuesday...
Limited Flooding Risk.
Limited Thunderstorm Risk.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed this afternoon and again tonight.

GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY:

Moving toward the east at 35 to 45 mph.

$$

LMZ740>745-071745-
Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL-
Wilmette Harbor to Northerly Island IL-
Northerly Island to Calumet Harbor IL-
Calumet Harbor IL to Gary IN-Gary to Burns Harbor IN-
Burns Harbor to Michigan City IN-
1145 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Illinois
nearshore waters of Lake Michigan and the Indiana nearshore
waters of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

Elevated Thunderstorm Risk...with an associated:
Thunderstorm Waterspout Risk
Level 1 of 5 Thunderstorm Wind Gust Risk...up to 40 knots.
Level 1 of 5 Hail Risk...up to one inch.
Elevated Fog Risk.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Saturday...
Hazardous conditions for small craft are likely.
Limited Thunderstorm Risk in the morning.
Monday...
Hazardous conditions for small craft are likely.
Tuesday...
Hazardous conditions for small craft are likely.
Limited Thunderstorm Risk
Wednesday and Thursday...
Hazardous conditions for small craft are likely.

$$

Kluber

Visit us at www.weather.gov/chicago

The "Hazardous Weather Outlook" contains information regarding any and all weather expected to occur within the region that could be hazardous to travel, life or property. This is one of our most highly recommended products to check on a daily basis, and it some cases multiple times per day should significant weather be expected to affect DuPage county.

SPC Convective Outlook Day 2

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113
ACUS02 KWNS 061728
SWODY2
SPC AC 061726

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN TX TO MS AND
THE UPPER OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from Saturday
morning into the evening across a broad swath of the southern Great
Plains to the Lower Great Lakes. Isolated very large hail should
occur over parts of Texas, centered on the south-central vicinity.

...Synopsis...
An upper shortwave trough, with multiple embedded shortwave
impulses, will move east from the Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes
regions on Saturday. Meanwhile, an upper low over the Lower CO
Valley will continue to retrograde, becoming positioned offshore
from Baja CA by Sunday morning. At the surface, a cyclone over the
Upper Great Lakes will deepen as it quickly moves to QC. A trailing
cold front will extend southwest from the low across the Lower MO
Valley to central TX at 12Z Saturday. This front will sweep
east/southeast across the Midwest, while the TX portion slows its
southern progression through early Sunday.

...OH Valley/Lower Great Lakes...
At least scattered convection will be ongoing in a broad swath
along/ahead of the aforementioned front from the Mid-South to the
central Great Lakes. Southwesterly low-level flow and the deepening
surface cyclone into ON/QC will support upper 50s to low 60s
dewpoints advecting towards western PA/southwest NY. Cloudiness in
vicinity of the ongoing convection will limit heating immediately
downstream, but a corridor of moderate insolation should develop
from the Cumberland Plateau into a portion of the Upper OH Valley.
This should support weak to modest MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg during
the afternoon. Most guidance signals an uptick in convective
intensity should occur as the large-scale outflow impinges on the
stronger instability by early afternoon. Sufficient low-level speed
shear will be present to moderately enlarge hodographs, however
linear convection is expected to be the main storm mode given nearly
parallel to the boundary deep-layer southwesterly flow. Scattered
damaging winds from strong to isolated severe gusts should be the
main hazard. A tornado or two and isolated marginally severe hail
may occur in deeper updrafts.

...TX to the Deep South...
Extensive convection is expected to be ongoing near the surface
front at 12Z Saturday from the Mid-South to the TX Big Country. The
western portion of this activity should be elevated with continuous
undercutting by the south/southeastward-moving cold front, posing an
initial severe hail threat. Linear convection will be most
predominant from the Ark-La-Tex/Mid-South, sagging east-southeast
across the Lower MS to TN Valleys, as it expands in coverage with
downstream diurnal destabilization. Low-level shear will be
strongest in the morning, before weakening through the afternoon. A
brief tornado or two is possible early, but sporadic bursts of
damaging winds should be the primary hazard, along with isolated
severe hail. Linear clusters will probably persist into the evening,
but shrink in areal extent on Saturday night, with a diminishing
severe threat towards the central Gulf Coast.

Over central to southern TX, steep mid-level lapse rates and greater
boundary-layer heating, particularly closer to the Rio Grande,
should support a plume of MLCAPE from 1500-2000 J/kg. Low-level flow
will remain weak and slightly diffluent in the open warm-moist
sector. Transient supercells are expected as the composite
front/outflow ripples southeastward across the state through the
evening. Large hail and isolated severe gusts should be the primary
hazards. A more intense supercell or two remains plausible in a
meso-beta corridor of south TX/Brush Country vicinity, capable of
very large hail. This may warrant a level 3-ENH with a CIG2
delineation in later outlooks.

..Grams.. 03/06/2026

$$

The "Convective Outlooks" issued by SPC can be thought of as a detailed discussion of the Severe Thunderstorm threat and it's associated risks nationwide. Risk levels range from Marginal to Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High and are issued based on the likelihood of 3 major severe weather threats; the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. These discussions are often heavily laced meteorological terminology that may be difficult to understand without a background in the field. However understanding these discussions shouldn't be thought of as necessary. Instead, should DuPage county fall under one of these threat levels for severe weather, the response should be to have a heightened level of awareness about the deveoloping weather. Keep an eye on the "Watch County Notification" for any active severe weather watches issued for DuPage county; the "Hazardous Weather Outlook" and "Severe Weather Statement" can also be helpful in explaining the developing risk; additionally, watch for "Active Weather Warnings" and keep an eye on our "Regional Satellite and Radar" products which can be viewed with active watches/warnings or lightning activity.

SPC Convective Outlook Day 3

See Product Description

827
ACUS03 KWNS 060801
SWODY3
SPC AC 060800

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms potential is low on Sunday.

...Synopsis...

A lower-amplitude upper-level pattern defined by westerly flow aloft
east of the Rockies will overspread the central and eastern U.S. on
Sunday. Meanwhile, an upper low will persist offshore from Baja CA.
At the surface, a cold front will move offshore the Northeast coast
by late afternoon. The southern extension of this boundary will
stall from the Mid-Atlantic into the TN Valley. Meanwhile, the
western portion of the boundary across eastern and southern TX will
lift northward late in the period. Gulf moisture will remain in
place across the southeast U.S. into TX, but limited large-scale
ascent and lack of height falls within the quasi-zonal regime will
limit severe potential. Nevertheless, isolated thunderstorms may be
ongoing across parts of the Lower MS Valley along remnant outflow
from the Day 2/Sat period. The warm advection regime across TX also
may support isolated thunderstorms through the period. Overall,
severe thunderstorm potential appears low.

..Leitman.. 03/06/2026

$$

The "Convective Outlooks" issued by SPC can be thought of as a detailed discussion of the Severe Thunderstorm threat and it's associated risks nationwide. Risk levels range from Marginal to Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High and are issued based on the likelihood of 3 major severe weather threats; the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. These discussions are often heavily laced meteorological terminology that may be difficult to understand without a background in the field. However understanding these discussions shouldn't be thought of as necessary. Instead, should DuPage county fall under one of these threat levels for severe weather, the response should be to have a heightened level of awareness about the deveoloping weather. Keep an eye on the "Watch County Notification" for any active severe weather watches issued for DuPage county; the "Hazardous Weather Outlook" and "Severe Weather Statement" can also be helpful in explaining the developing risk; additionally, watch for "Active Weather Warnings" and keep an eye on our "Regional Satellite and Radar" products which can be viewed with active watches/warnings or lightning activity.

Special Weather Statement

See Product Description

No active Special Weather Statement for DuPage County.

The "Special Weather Statement" details notable weather either occuring or expected to occur, but does not necessarily have to be considered severe or hazardous. This is a supplementary product issued by the National Weather Service to help describe noteworthy weather. It's terminology should be reasonably easy to understand by the general public.

Watch County Notification

See Product Description

No active Watch County Notification for DuPage County.

The "Watch County Notification" will contain updates regarding active severe weather watches that pertain to DuPage county. This may be for a newly issued watch, or the cancelation of an existing watch. Severe weather watches come in two forms; Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado, and it should be noted that a Severe Thunderstorm Watch does NOT rule out the possibility of tornadoes occuring. It generally means that the tornado threat is minimal while damaging winds and hail are still likely. See our "Watch, Warning, and Advisory Criteria" for more detailed information on the differences and critera for watches, warnings and advisory for all forms of weather.

Winter Weather Statement

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No active Winter Weather Statement for DuPage County.

The "Winter Weather Statement" is a product aimed at the general public that will discuss impacts caused by winter weather. This may include information about watches, warnings and advisories as well as details about impactful winter weather that may not warrant the issuance of a watch, warning or advisory.

Severe Weather Statement

See Product Description

No active Severe Weather Statement for DuPage County.

The "Severe Weather Statement" is a product aimed at the general public that will discuss impacts caused by severe thunderstorms. This may include information about watches and warnings as well as details about impactful "sub-severe" weather that may not warrant the issuance of a watch or warning which sometimes may come when a watch or warning has been canceled.

Non-Precip Statement

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No active Non-Precip Statement for DuPage County.

The "Non-Precip Statement" is aimed at the general public and will detail notable weather that is either occuring or expected to occur, but does not relate to any form of precipitation. These would include but are not limited to high winds, reduced visibility or extreme temperatures.

Active Weather Warnings

Tornado Warnings

No active Tornado Warnings.

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings

No active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings.

Flood Warnings

No active Flood Warnings.

Winter Weather Warnings

No active Winter Weather Warnings.

General Tornado/Severe Weather Safety

1. A Tornado or Severe Thunderstorm Warning is issued when it has been reported, or when it has been detected via National Weather Service radar. It is to be interpreted that this event is occuring and is expected to affect all warned areas. Those within the warning need to take action immediately.
2. If under a warning remain calm and if it is necessary to seek shelter. Students and Employees should head to their nearest designated shelter area. The route to these shelter areas are posted in all rooms on campus and signs are placed in the hallways to direct you to the nearest shelter area. Review these instructions and be familiar with where your nearest shelter is. Stay indoors, away from windows and large unsupported ceilings. Faculty should account for their students and Supervisors should account for their areas employees.
3. If outside, take shelter in the nearest building.
4. After the storm has passed, dial Police at 911 to report any injuries or damage to buildings.
5. If the building is severely damaged, evacuate the building as soon as possible after the storm has passed.