SPC Convective Outlook Day 1

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685
ACUS01 KWNS 031236
SWODY1
SPC AC 031235

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0635 AM CST Wed Mar 03 2021

Valid 031300Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
At least a few thunderstorms are possible today over parts of
Florida and near-coastal southern California, and tonight over
northern Arizona.

...Synopsis...
A progressive upper-air pattern with a somewhat active, regionally
splitting southern stream is forecast this period. The first
perturbation in that stream -- a strong shortwave trough initially
located over portions of GA/SC -- will move offshore by 18Z. Behind
that feature, generally zonal flow across the south-central/
southeastern CONUS will give way to height rises over the southern
Plains.

Those height rises will occur in advance of a marginally synoptic-
scale (roughly 1000 km width of outer closed isohypse) cyclone now
apparent in moisture-channel imagery west of southern CA and
northern Baja. This vortex will move inland across southern CA
today, with its 500-mb trough assuming negative tilt, and a
cyclonically curved, 120-140-kt 250-mb jet streak over its southern
semicircle. By 12Z tomorrow, the cyclone should reach northern AZ
and central/southern UT, with trough back near neutral tilt,
southward to northern Sonora.

...Southern CA and AZ...
Widely scattered thunderstorms are possible in the associated
frontal/convergence arc immediately preceding the cyclone core,
where isolated, shallow thunderstorms also may develop and move
ashore. The most probable area for thunder appears to be over
southern CA from portions of the L.A. area through SAN. Isolated
thunder also may be noted tonight over parts of northern AZ. Strong
large-scale lift (with DCVA under left-exit region of aforementioned
jet max) and accompanying cooling aloft will steepen lapse rates.
Despite cool surface conditions, sufficient low-level moistening
should occur with those greater lapse rates to yield MUCAPE of
50-150 J/kg, extending into icing layers favorable for sporadic
lightning.

...FL...
11Z surface analysis showed a low just offshore from the GA Coast
with a cold front southwestward across northern FL to the central
Gulf. This front should move southeastward and off the peninsula
around 03Z. A prefrontal low-level convergence zone and
accompanying band of convection -- initially located across parts of
central FL -- should move eastward with some backbuilding possible
through early/mid afternoon. With the mid/upper perturbation now
north of the area forecast to move away quickly, mid/upper support
and low-level mass convergence should weaken with time, albeit with
some offsetting influence from diurnal destabilization and weakening
MLCINH of a moist air mass inland. Still, with weak lapse rates
aloft and lack of stronger lift, thunderstorm coverage should remain
isolated to widely scattered before diminishing late this afternoon
and evening.

..Edwards/Jewell.. 03/03/2021

$$

The "Convective Outlooks" issued by SPC can be thought of as a detailed discussion of the Severe Thunderstorm threat and it's associated risks nationwide. Risk levels range from Marginal to Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High and are issued based on the likelihood of 3 major severe weather threats; the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. These discussions are often heavily laced meteorological terminology that may be difficult to understand without a background in the field. However understanding these discussions shouldn't be thought of as necessary. Instead, should DuPage county fall under one of these threat levels for severe weather, the response should be to have a heightened level of awareness about the deveoloping weather. Keep an eye on the "Watch County Notification" for any active severe weather watches issued for DuPage county; the "Hazardous Weather Outlook" and "Severe Weather Statement" can also be helpful in explaining the developing risk; additionally, watch for "Active Weather Warnings" and keep an eye on our "Regional Satellite and Radar" products which can be viewed with active watches/warnings or lightning activity.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

See Product Description

664
FLUS43 KLOT 030828
HWOLOT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL
228 AM CST Wed Mar 3 2021

ILZ003>006-008-010>013-019>021-023-032-033-039-103>108-INZ001-002-
010-011-019-040830-
Winnebago-Boone-McHenry-Lake IL-Ogle-Lee-De Kalb-Kane-DuPage-
La Salle-Kendall-Grundy-Kankakee-Livingston-Iroquois-Ford-
Northern Cook-Central Cook-Southern Cook-Northern Will-
Southern Will-Eastern Will-Lake IN-Porter-Newton-Jasper-Benton-
228 AM CST Wed Mar 3 2021 /328 AM EST Wed Mar 3 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North Central
Illinois...Northeast Illinois and Northwest Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be necessary through tonight.

$$

LMZ740>745-040830-
Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL-
Wilmette Harbor to Northerly Island IL-
Northerly Island to Calumet Harbor IL-
Calumet Harbor IL to Gary IN-Gary to Burns Harbor IN-
Burns Harbor to Michigan City IN-
228 AM CST Wed Mar 3 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Illinois
nearshore waters of Lake Michigan and the Indiana nearshore
waters of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

Hazardous conditions for small craft are possible late
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thursday...
Hazardous conditions for small craft are possible.

$$

Carlaw

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The "Hazardous Weather Outlook" contains information regarding any and all weather expected to occur within the region that could be hazardous to travel, life or property. This is one of our most highly recommended products to check on a daily basis, and it some cases multiple times per day should significant weather be expected to affect DuPage county.

SPC Convective Outlook Day 2

See Product Description

003
ACUS02 KWNS 030541
SWODY2
SPC AC 030540

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 PM CST Tue Mar 02 2021

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday.

...Southern Plains Vicinity...

An upper low and attendant shortwave trough will migrate
east/southeast from the Four Corners vicinity to the southern Plains
on Thursday. In response to height falls, a weak surface low will
develop over the southern High Plains along with a 25-40 kt low
level jet. While this normally would result in strong northward
moisture transport, a previous cold front dropping into the southern
Gulf will limit stronger moisture surge on Gulf return flow. Surface
dew points ahead of a dryline extending southward from the eastern
OK Panhandle into western TX will only climb into the mid 40s to
near 50 F.

A warm nose in the 850-700 mb layer will also persist until closer
to 00z, limiting convection until late afternoon/evening when
cooling aloft ensues and midlevel lapse rates steepen. Isolated
thunderstorms are expected in the vicinity of the surface low,
though surface-based storms appear very conditional at this time and
would be high-based given the dry lower atmospheric conditions.
Modest instability and steep lapse rates could result in some
sub-severe hail in the strongest cells, but the threat also appears
very low-probability and conditional, precluding severe
probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 03/03/2021

$$

The "Convective Outlooks" issued by SPC can be thought of as a detailed discussion of the Severe Thunderstorm threat and it's associated risks nationwide. Risk levels range from Marginal to Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High and are issued based on the likelihood of 3 major severe weather threats; the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. These discussions are often heavily laced meteorological terminology that may be difficult to understand without a background in the field. However understanding these discussions shouldn't be thought of as necessary. Instead, should DuPage county fall under one of these threat levels for severe weather, the response should be to have a heightened level of awareness about the deveoloping weather. Keep an eye on the "Watch County Notification" for any active severe weather watches issued for DuPage county; the "Hazardous Weather Outlook" and "Severe Weather Statement" can also be helpful in explaining the developing risk; additionally, watch for "Active Weather Warnings" and keep an eye on our "Regional Satellite and Radar" products which can be viewed with active watches/warnings or lightning activity.

SPC Convective Outlook Day 3

See Product Description

372
ACUS03 KWNS 030752
SWODY3
SPC AC 030751

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 AM CST Wed Mar 03 2021

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.

...Synopsis...

An upper low over the southern Plains will develop eastward as an
open wave across the southeastern states. At the surface, a weak low
near the OK/north TX border will weaken as it develops southeast.
Gulf return flow will remain limited to the TX coastal Plain and
portions of the Sabine Valley. However, low level moisture will
remain shallow, with low 60s dewpoints hugging the coast while upper
40s to 50s dewpoints extend further north. Steepening midlevel lapse
rates will help contribute to less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Stronger
forcing will remain displaced to the north/northeast of low-level
moist axis, but moderate shear and weak elevated instability should
allow for isolated thunderstorms ahead of a surface cold front.
Severe storms are not expected.

..Leitman.. 03/03/2021

$$

The "Convective Outlooks" issued by SPC can be thought of as a detailed discussion of the Severe Thunderstorm threat and it's associated risks nationwide. Risk levels range from Marginal to Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High and are issued based on the likelihood of 3 major severe weather threats; the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. These discussions are often heavily laced meteorological terminology that may be difficult to understand without a background in the field. However understanding these discussions shouldn't be thought of as necessary. Instead, should DuPage county fall under one of these threat levels for severe weather, the response should be to have a heightened level of awareness about the deveoloping weather. Keep an eye on the "Watch County Notification" for any active severe weather watches issued for DuPage county; the "Hazardous Weather Outlook" and "Severe Weather Statement" can also be helpful in explaining the developing risk; additionally, watch for "Active Weather Warnings" and keep an eye on our "Regional Satellite and Radar" products which can be viewed with active watches/warnings or lightning activity.

Special Weather Statement

See Product Description

No active Special Weather Statement for DuPage County.

The "Special Weather Statement" details notable weather either occuring or expected to occur, but does not necessarily have to be considered severe or hazardous. This is a supplementary product issued by the National Weather Service to help describe noteworthy weather. It's terminology should be reasonably easy to understand by the general public.

Watch County Notification

See Product Description

No active Watch County Notification for DuPage County.

The "Watch County Notification" will contain updates regarding active severe weather watches that pertain to DuPage county. This may be for a newly issued watch, or the cancelation of an existing watch. Severe weather watches come in two forms; Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado, and it should be noted that a Severe Thunderstorm Watch does NOT rule out the possibility of tornadoes occuring. It generally means that the tornado threat is minimal while damaging winds and hail are still likely. See our "Watch, Warning, and Advisory Criteria" for more detailed information on the differences and critera for watches, warnings and advisory for all forms of weather.

Winter Weather Statement

See Product Description

No active Winter Weather Statement for DuPage County.

The "Winter Weather Statement" is a product aimed at the general public that will discuss impacts caused by winter weather. This may include information about watches, warnings and advisories as well as details about impactful winter weather that may not warrant the issuance of a watch, warning or advisory.

Severe Weather Statement

See Product Description

No active Severe Weather Statement for DuPage County.

The "Severe Weather Statement" is a product aimed at the general public that will discuss impacts caused by severe thunderstorms. This may include information about watches and warnings as well as details about impactful "sub-severe" weather that may not warrant the issuance of a watch or warning which sometimes may come when a watch or warning has been canceled.

Non-Precip Statement

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No active Non-Precip Statement for DuPage County.

The "Non-Precip Statement" is aimed at the general public and will detail notable weather that is either occuring or expected to occur, but does not relate to any form of precipitation. These would include but are not limited to high winds, reduced visibility or extreme temperatures.

Active Weather Warnings

Tornado Warnings

No active Tornado Warnings.

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings

No active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings.

Flood Warnings

No active Flood Warnings.

Winter Weather Warnings

No active Winter Weather Warnings.

General Tornado/Severe Weather Safety

1. A Tornado or Severe Thunderstorm Warning is issued when it has been reported, or when it has been detected via National Weather Service radar. It is to be interpreted that this event is occuring and is expected to affect all warned areas. Those within the warning need to take action immediately.
2. If under a warning remain calm and if it is necessary to seek shelter. Students and Employees should head to their nearest designated shelter area. The route to these shelter areas are posted in all rooms on campus and signs are placed in the hallways to direct you to the nearest shelter area. Review these instructions and be familiar with where your nearest shelter is. Stay indoors, away from windows and large unsupported ceilings. Faculty should account for their students and Supervisors should account for their areas employees.
3. If outside, take shelter in the nearest building.
4. After the storm has passed, dial Police at 911 to report any injuries or damage to buildings.
5. If the building is severely damaged, evacuate the building as soon as possible after the storm has passed.