SPC Convective Outlook Day 1

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368
ACUS01 KWNS 031951
SWODY1
SPC AC 031950

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Mon Oct 03 2022

Valid 032000Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR
NORTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur over
north-central Arizona and into adjacent portions of southeast
California through the early evening.

...Discussion...
No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook.

..Smith.. 10/03/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Mon Oct 03 2022/

...Northern Arizona...
A positive-tilt upper trough centered over southern Nevada will
continue east-southeastward toward the Four Corners area through
tonight. Steep mid-level lapse rates accompany the trough-related
mid-level cold core (-14C at 500 mb). As further boundary layer
heating/destabilization occurs into this afternoon, some stronger
storms may develop and persist even with relatively weak winds
aloft. A few of these storms could episodically produce hail to near
severe levels through the afternoon before weakening by around
sunset.

...North-central High Plains...
Isolated stronger storms may also form later today over the Black
Hills and the Nebraska Panhandle. Stronger winds aloft will promote
some risk of more persistent structures, but limited low-level
moisture will keep CAPE values rather low today. Nevertheless, small
hail or gusty winds cannot be ruled out in a storm or two.

$$

The "Convective Outlooks" issued by SPC can be thought of as a detailed discussion of the Severe Thunderstorm threat and it's associated risks nationwide. Risk levels range from Marginal to Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High and are issued based on the likelihood of 3 major severe weather threats; the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. These discussions are often heavily laced meteorological terminology that may be difficult to understand without a background in the field. However understanding these discussions shouldn't be thought of as necessary. Instead, should DuPage county fall under one of these threat levels for severe weather, the response should be to have a heightened level of awareness about the deveoloping weather. Keep an eye on the "Watch County Notification" for any active severe weather watches issued for DuPage county; the "Hazardous Weather Outlook" and "Severe Weather Statement" can also be helpful in explaining the developing risk; additionally, watch for "Active Weather Warnings" and keep an eye on our "Regional Satellite and Radar" products which can be viewed with active watches/warnings or lightning activity.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

See Product Description

760
FLUS43 KLOT 031953
HWOLOT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL
253 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022

ILZ003>006-008-010>013-019>021-023-032-033-039-103>108-INZ001-002-
010-011-019-042000-
Winnebago-Boone-McHenry-Lake IL-Ogle-Lee-De Kalb-Kane-DuPage-
La Salle-Kendall-Grundy-Kankakee-Livingston-Iroquois-Ford-
Northern Cook-Central Cook-Southern Cook-Northern Will-
Southern Will-Eastern Will-Lake IN-Porter-Newton-Jasper-Benton-
253 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022 /353 PM EDT Mon Oct 3 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North Central
Illinois...Northeast Illinois and Northwest Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Friday Night and Saturday Night...
Significant Frost and Freeze Risk.

DISCUSSION:

A much colder period of weather is expected Friday into Saturday
following a strong cold frontal passage on Thursday. This cold
period is likely to result in the season's first freeze Friday
night for many locations outside of Chicago and inland from Lake
Michigan.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be necessary through tonight.

$$

LMZ740>745-042000-
Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL-
Wilmette Harbor to Northerly Island IL-
Northerly Island to Calumet Harbor IL-
Calumet Harbor IL to Gary IN-Gary to Burns Harbor IN-
Burns Harbor to Michigan City IN-
253 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Illinois
nearshore waters of Lake Michigan and the Indiana nearshore
waters of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Thursday and Friday...
Hazardous conditions for small craft are likely.

$$

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The "Hazardous Weather Outlook" contains information regarding any and all weather expected to occur within the region that could be hazardous to travel, life or property. This is one of our most highly recommended products to check on a daily basis, and it some cases multiple times per day should significant weather be expected to affect DuPage county.

SPC Convective Outlook Day 2

See Product Description

853
ACUS02 KWNS 031719
SWODY2
SPC AC 031718

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 PM CDT Mon Oct 03 2022

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the
contiguous United States on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level low over the Mid-Atlantic states will slowly move east
into the adjacent Atlantic during the period as a mid-level low
shifts slowly east across the Dakotas. An extension of the
mid-level trough over the north-central U.S. will protrude farther
southwest into NM. A plume of modest moisture and heating will
promote isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms from the Desert
Southwest north-northeastward into parts of the Upper Midwest. A
few lightning flashes cannot be ruled out near the immediate coast
from NJ to Cape Cod.

..Smith.. 10/03/2022

$$

The "Convective Outlooks" issued by SPC can be thought of as a detailed discussion of the Severe Thunderstorm threat and it's associated risks nationwide. Risk levels range from Marginal to Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High and are issued based on the likelihood of 3 major severe weather threats; the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. These discussions are often heavily laced meteorological terminology that may be difficult to understand without a background in the field. However understanding these discussions shouldn't be thought of as necessary. Instead, should DuPage county fall under one of these threat levels for severe weather, the response should be to have a heightened level of awareness about the deveoloping weather. Keep an eye on the "Watch County Notification" for any active severe weather watches issued for DuPage county; the "Hazardous Weather Outlook" and "Severe Weather Statement" can also be helpful in explaining the developing risk; additionally, watch for "Active Weather Warnings" and keep an eye on our "Regional Satellite and Radar" products which can be viewed with active watches/warnings or lightning activity.

SPC Convective Outlook Day 3

See Product Description

075
ACUS03 KWNS 030640
SWODY3
SPC AC 030639

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 AM CDT Mon Oct 03 2022

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
A strong shortwave trough will move southeastward across Manitoba
and western Ontario, reaching the northern Plains and upper Great
Lakes by Thursday morning. Preceding this amplification will be a
weaker wave which will drift eastward across the upper MS Valley,
eventually becoming absorbed by the northern trough.

High pressure will remain centered over the OH Valley, with another
high over the Rockies. The result will be relatively cool and/or
stable air over the majority of the CONUS on Wednesday. A pocket of
weak instability may develop due to cold temperatures aloft from IA
into southern MN and western WI, with only general thunder expected.

Elsewhere, weak northerly flow aloft will exist over AZ, where
isolated daytime thunderstorms will be possible over the higher
terrain in a weakly unstable environment.

..Jewell.. 10/03/2022

$$

The "Convective Outlooks" issued by SPC can be thought of as a detailed discussion of the Severe Thunderstorm threat and it's associated risks nationwide. Risk levels range from Marginal to Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High and are issued based on the likelihood of 3 major severe weather threats; the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. These discussions are often heavily laced meteorological terminology that may be difficult to understand without a background in the field. However understanding these discussions shouldn't be thought of as necessary. Instead, should DuPage county fall under one of these threat levels for severe weather, the response should be to have a heightened level of awareness about the deveoloping weather. Keep an eye on the "Watch County Notification" for any active severe weather watches issued for DuPage county; the "Hazardous Weather Outlook" and "Severe Weather Statement" can also be helpful in explaining the developing risk; additionally, watch for "Active Weather Warnings" and keep an eye on our "Regional Satellite and Radar" products which can be viewed with active watches/warnings or lightning activity.

Special Weather Statement

See Product Description

No active Special Weather Statement for DuPage County.

The "Special Weather Statement" details notable weather either occuring or expected to occur, but does not necessarily have to be considered severe or hazardous. This is a supplementary product issued by the National Weather Service to help describe noteworthy weather. It's terminology should be reasonably easy to understand by the general public.

Watch County Notification

See Product Description

No active Watch County Notification for DuPage County.

The "Watch County Notification" will contain updates regarding active severe weather watches that pertain to DuPage county. This may be for a newly issued watch, or the cancelation of an existing watch. Severe weather watches come in two forms; Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado, and it should be noted that a Severe Thunderstorm Watch does NOT rule out the possibility of tornadoes occuring. It generally means that the tornado threat is minimal while damaging winds and hail are still likely. See our "Watch, Warning, and Advisory Criteria" for more detailed information on the differences and critera for watches, warnings and advisory for all forms of weather.

Winter Weather Statement

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No active Winter Weather Statement for DuPage County.

The "Winter Weather Statement" is a product aimed at the general public that will discuss impacts caused by winter weather. This may include information about watches, warnings and advisories as well as details about impactful winter weather that may not warrant the issuance of a watch, warning or advisory.

Severe Weather Statement

See Product Description

No active Severe Weather Statement for DuPage County.

The "Severe Weather Statement" is a product aimed at the general public that will discuss impacts caused by severe thunderstorms. This may include information about watches and warnings as well as details about impactful "sub-severe" weather that may not warrant the issuance of a watch or warning which sometimes may come when a watch or warning has been canceled.

Non-Precip Statement

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No active Non-Precip Statement for DuPage County.

The "Non-Precip Statement" is aimed at the general public and will detail notable weather that is either occuring or expected to occur, but does not relate to any form of precipitation. These would include but are not limited to high winds, reduced visibility or extreme temperatures.

Active Weather Warnings

Tornado Warnings

No active Tornado Warnings.

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings

No active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings.

Flood Warnings

No active Flood Warnings.

Winter Weather Warnings

No active Winter Weather Warnings.

General Tornado/Severe Weather Safety

1. A Tornado or Severe Thunderstorm Warning is issued when it has been reported, or when it has been detected via National Weather Service radar. It is to be interpreted that this event is occuring and is expected to affect all warned areas. Those within the warning need to take action immediately.
2. If under a warning remain calm and if it is necessary to seek shelter. Students and Employees should head to their nearest designated shelter area. The route to these shelter areas are posted in all rooms on campus and signs are placed in the hallways to direct you to the nearest shelter area. Review these instructions and be familiar with where your nearest shelter is. Stay indoors, away from windows and large unsupported ceilings. Faculty should account for their students and Supervisors should account for their areas employees.
3. If outside, take shelter in the nearest building.
4. After the storm has passed, dial Police at 911 to report any injuries or damage to buildings.
5. If the building is severely damaged, evacuate the building as soon as possible after the storm has passed.