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Current Conditions

A message from COD Meteorology

Current Local Radar

Temperature
74°F
Feels Like:
74°F
Dew Point	Humidity
59°F	60%

Mostly Cloudy

Wind Strength
Light	Moderate	Strong
East at 6 mph

Local Graphical Forecast (Updated: 09/24/23 4:11 pm)

Sunday (9/24)
Day	Night

	20%
High	Low
	60

Monday (9/25)
Day	Night

20%	30%
High	Low
75	60

Tuesday (9/26)
Day	Night

70%	70%
High	Low
72	60

Wednesday (9/27)
Day	Night

60%
High	Low
69	59

Thursday (9/28)
Day	Night


High	Low
70	58

Friday (9/29)
Day	Night


High	Low
74	58

Saturday (9/30)
Day	Night


High	Low
77	59

Detailed Text Forecast (Updated: 09/24/23 4:11 pm)

Sunday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers after 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60. East southeast wind around 5 mph, with gusts as high as 10 mph.

Monday: A slight chance of showers before 9am, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 4pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 75. East southeast wind around 5 mph, with gusts as high as 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Monday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60. East southeast wind 5 to 10 mph.

Tuesday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 72. East southeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Tuesday Night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60. East wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Wednesday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 69. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59.

Thursday: Partly sunny, with a high near 70.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 58.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 74.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 58.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 77.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 59.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 77.

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SPC Convective Outlook Day 1

See Product Description

423
ACUS01 KWNS 242001
SWODY1
SPC AC 241959

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

Valid 242000Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ARKLATEX/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe hail and damaging gusts are expected later this afternoon and
evening across central/northeast Texas and possibly far southern
Oklahoma and the Arklatex vicinity.

...20Z Update...
No changes have been made to the severe probabilities. Supercell
development remains possible later this afternoon into this evening
from central TX into the ArkLaTex region, with some clustering of
storms possible tonight. Very large hail and severe/damaging gusts
will be the primary threats. The greatest relative threat may become
centered over northeast TX, to the east of a surface low. Some
enhancement to low-level shear/SRH in this region may support the
threat of a tornado as well. See the previous discussion below and
MCD 2192 for more information.

..Dean.. 09/24/2023

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023/

...Central Texas to southeast Oklahoma/ArkLaTex...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, potentially very large
(2+ inch in some cases), and damaging winds are expected mainly late
this afternoon and much of the evening especially across parts of
central to north/northeast Texas, and possibly nearby parts of
southern Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex region.

Water vapor imagery continues to feature an eastward-moving
low-amplitude shortwave trough and mid-level speed max over the
southern High Plains late this morning, with these features expected
to reach the region (north Texas/ArkLaTex) by late afternoon and
evening. Meanwhile, a northeast/southwest-oriented front will settle
southward across the region, with augmenting outflow/differential
heating influences across the ArkLaTex. Ample warm-sector heating is
anticipated under cloud-free skies early today, where plentiful
upper 60s to middle 70s F surface dewpoints currently reside.

Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorm development is expected
as early as late afternoon near the front/surface low and possibly
also influenced by aforementioned residual outflow/differential
heating and pre-frontal convergence. Upwards of 2500-3500 J/kg
MLCAPE in the presence of moderate-caliber effective shear
(generally 30-40 kt effective) will support some initial supercells
cable of large hail, with some potentially significant in excess of
2 inches in diameter. A low-probability tornado risk may also exist
in areas such as northeast Texas, where 1-3 km AGL winds will be a
bit stronger to the east of the surface wave across north Texas.

Storms are likely to cluster/grow upscale across the warm sector
this evening, with damaging winds and some hail risk continuing,
while other storms may develop tonight as far north as far southern
Oklahoma/north Texas and ArkLaTex as a low-level jet and related
warm advection increase.

$$

The "Convective Outlooks" issued by SPC can be thought of as a detailed discussion of the Severe Thunderstorm threat and it's associated risks nationwide. Risk levels range from Marginal to Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High and are issued based on the likelihood of 3 major severe weather threats; the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. These discussions are often heavily laced meteorological terminology that may be difficult to understand without a background in the field. However understanding these discussions shouldn't be thought of as necessary. Instead, should DuPage county fall under one of these threat levels for severe weather, the response should be to have a heightened level of awareness about the deveoloping weather. Keep an eye on the "Watch County Notification" for any active severe weather watches issued for DuPage county; the "Hazardous Weather Outlook" and "Severe Weather Statement" can also be helpful in explaining the developing risk; additionally, watch for "Active Weather Warnings" and keep an eye on our "Regional Satellite and Radar" products which can be viewed with active watches/warnings or lightning activity.

SPC Convective Outlook Day 2

See Product Description

021
ACUS02 KWNS 241722
SWODY2
SPC AC 241720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TX
TRANS-PECOS REGION EASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER TX COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible
across parts of Texas on Monday.

...Parts of TX into southern LA...
Convection will likely be ongoing Monday morning across parts of
central TX into the upper TX Coast, though the coverage and
intensity of the early-day storms remains uncertain. The Sunday
night into Monday morning convection will influence the position of
a cold front that will likely become draped somewhere from southwest
TX into central TX and the mid/upper TX Coast by Monday afternoon.
Diurnal heating and favorable low-level moisture will support
moderate to locally strong buoyancy near/south of the front, and
also within a post-frontal regime across the TX Trans-Pecos region.

Large-scale ascent will largely remain weak across the region, but
isolated to widely scattered diurnal thunderstorm development will
be possible within a weakly capped environment near the front, and
also across the higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos. Modest midlevel
northwesterly flow will support effective shear generally in the
20-30 kt range, sufficient for a few semi-organized cells/clusters
during the afternoon and evening. Isolated severe gusts will be
possible with the strongest storms, with some hail potential also
evident from the Trans-Pecos into Edwards Plateau vicinity, where
somewhat steeper midlevel lapse rates are expected compared to areas
farther east.

..Dean.. 09/24/2023

$$

The "Convective Outlooks" issued by SPC can be thought of as a detailed discussion of the Severe Thunderstorm threat and it's associated risks nationwide. Risk levels range from Marginal to Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High and are issued based on the likelihood of 3 major severe weather threats; the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. These discussions are often heavily laced meteorological terminology that may be difficult to understand without a background in the field. However understanding these discussions shouldn't be thought of as necessary. Instead, should DuPage county fall under one of these threat levels for severe weather, the response should be to have a heightened level of awareness about the deveoloping weather. Keep an eye on the "Watch County Notification" for any active severe weather watches issued for DuPage county; the "Hazardous Weather Outlook" and "Severe Weather Statement" can also be helpful in explaining the developing risk; additionally, watch for "Active Weather Warnings" and keep an eye on our "Regional Satellite and Radar" products which can be viewed with active watches/warnings or lightning activity.

SPC Convective Outlook Day 3

See Product Description

909
ACUS03 KWNS 240730
SWODY3
SPC AC 240729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PECOS VALLEY TO BIG BEND...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms, associated with strong winds and hail, will be
possible on Tuesday across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and
Pecos Valley to Big Bend.

...Mid Mississippi Valley...
An upper-level low is forecast to move southeastward across Iowa on
Tuesday, as a cold front advances southward into northern Missouri
and western Illinois. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints around
60 F along with surface heating will result in weak destabilization
across much of the mid Mississippi Valley by afternoon. A small
pocket of moderate instability could develop by late afternoon, most
likely in Missouri. Scattered convection is expected to initiate
ahead of the upper-level low and near the front, with storms moving
southeastward across the mid Mississippi Valley. Forecast soundings
near St. Louis at 00Z/Thursday have MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg, with 0-6
km shear around 30 knots, and 500 mb temperatures around -14C. This
could be enough for hail with the stronger cores. A few strong gusts
may also occur.

...West Texas/Eastern New Mexico...
Northwesterly flow at mid-levels is forecast on Tuesday across much
of the Rockies and southern Plains. At the surface, an axis of
maximized low-level moisture is forecast from southwest Texas
extending northwestward into southeast New Mexico. Surface dewpoints
near this axis will likely be in the lower 60s F, possibly yielding
moderate instability by afternoon as surface temperatures warm. In
spite of the lack of large-scale ascent, isolated thunderstorms
appear likely to develop in the higher terrain. This convection will
move into the lower elevations during the late afternoon. Steep
low-level lapse rates, along with modest deep-layer shear may be
enough for a marginal severe threat. Hail and strong gusts will be
the primary hazards.

..Broyles.. 09/24/2023

$$

The "Convective Outlooks" issued by SPC can be thought of as a detailed discussion of the Severe Thunderstorm threat and it's associated risks nationwide. Risk levels range from Marginal to Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High and are issued based on the likelihood of 3 major severe weather threats; the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. These discussions are often heavily laced meteorological terminology that may be difficult to understand without a background in the field. However understanding these discussions shouldn't be thought of as necessary. Instead, should DuPage county fall under one of these threat levels for severe weather, the response should be to have a heightened level of awareness about the deveoloping weather. Keep an eye on the "Watch County Notification" for any active severe weather watches issued for DuPage county; the "Hazardous Weather Outlook" and "Severe Weather Statement" can also be helpful in explaining the developing risk; additionally, watch for "Active Weather Warnings" and keep an eye on our "Regional Satellite and Radar" products which can be viewed with active watches/warnings or lightning activity.