SPC Convective Outlook Day 1

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100
ACUS01 KWNS 191952
SWODY1
SPC AC 191950

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Valid 192000Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible over parts
of the Southeast this afternoon into the early evening.

Little change made to the outlook at 20Z.

...Southeast...
Strong heating continues well ahead of the cold front, beneath
modest west/northwest flow aloft. Midlevel lapse rates are poor, but
sufficient instability coupled with the heated boundary layer and
sufficient flow should support a few storms capable of damaging
gusts or marginal hail with the more robust cells. Convergence near
a weak low and a zone of mid 60s F dewpoints over central NC/eastern
SC may yield the strongest cells.

See mesoscale discussion 494 for more details.

..Jewell.. 04/19/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024/

...Southeast this afternoon/evening...
Late morning water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough
moving east across the southern Appalachians. This feature will
reach the VA/NC coast early tonight. Farther northwest, a closed
midlevel low will evolve into an open wave as it moves eastward over
the Great Lakes and OH Valley. An associated surface cold front
will continue to move slowly southeastward from TX to the southern
Appalachians. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be
possible with the disturbance over the Carolinas this afternoon.
Other than the front pushing into portions of AL/GA, little
larger-scale forcing for ascent is expected farther southwest.
Additional storm development will be associated with the front and
orographic lift along the spine of the Appalachians. Overall
weak-moderate buoyancy, modest deep-layer shear and steepening
low-level lapse rates will support some potential semi-organized
storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally
severe hail for a few hours this afternoon/evening.

...TX through tonight...
--No change needed to previous forecast discussion--
Weak upslope flow along a slow moving cold front will favor
thunderstorm development over the east slopes of the Sierra Madre
Oriental/Sierra del Burro this afternoon, with the potential for a
couple of supercells. However, it is not clear that storm motions
will bring the convection across the Rio Grande, and lingering
convective inhibition suggests storms will likely weaken if they
manage to cross the border. Later tonight in northwest TX, elevated
convection will likely develop atop the frontal surface, in a warm
advection regime downstream from a weak shortwave trough over AZ/NM.
Some small hail may occur given lingering steep midlevel lapse rates
and modest cloud-layer shear, but the potential for severe hail
appears too low to warrant an outlook area.

$$

The "Convective Outlooks" issued by SPC can be thought of as a detailed discussion of the Severe Thunderstorm threat and it's associated risks nationwide. Risk levels range from Marginal to Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High and are issued based on the likelihood of 3 major severe weather threats; the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. These discussions are often heavily laced meteorological terminology that may be difficult to understand without a background in the field. However understanding these discussions shouldn't be thought of as necessary. Instead, should DuPage county fall under one of these threat levels for severe weather, the response should be to have a heightened level of awareness about the deveoloping weather. Keep an eye on the "Watch County Notification" for any active severe weather watches issued for DuPage county; the "Hazardous Weather Outlook" and "Severe Weather Statement" can also be helpful in explaining the developing risk; additionally, watch for "Active Weather Warnings" and keep an eye on our "Regional Satellite and Radar" products which can be viewed with active watches/warnings or lightning activity.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

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607
FLUS43 KLOT 190744
HWOLOT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL
244 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

ILZ003>006-008-010>013-019>021-023-032-033-039-103>108-INZ001-002-
010-011-019-200745-
Winnebago-Boone-McHenry-Lake IL-Ogle-Lee-De Kalb-Kane-DuPage-
La Salle-Kendall-Grundy-Kankakee-Livingston-Iroquois-Ford-
Northern Cook-Central Cook-Southern Cook-Northern Will-
Southern Will-Eastern Will-Lake IN-Porter-Newton-Jasper-Benton-
244 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 /344 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

Elevated Fire Weather Risk.
Limited Frost Risk across northwest Illinois.

DISCUSSION...

The combination of westerly winds gusting up to 35 to 40 mph and
minimum relative humidity values of 25 to 35 percent will lead to
an elevated fire danger today.

Patchy frost is possible across northwest Illinois tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Saturday night and Monday night...
Elevated to Significant Frost and Freeze Risk outside of Chicago.
Tuesday...
Limited Thunderstorm Risk.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be necessary through tonight.

$$

LMZ740>745-200745-
Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL-
Wilmette Harbor to Northerly Island IL-
Northerly Island to Calumet Harbor IL-
Calumet Harbor IL to Gary IN-Gary to Burns Harbor IN-
Burns Harbor to Michigan City IN-
244 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Illinois
nearshore waters of Lake Michigan and the Indiana nearshore
waters of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

Hazardous conditions for small craft today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Monday night...
Hazardous conditions for small craft are likely.
Tuesday...
Hazardous conditions for small craft are likely.
Limited Thunderstorm Risk.
Wednesday...
Hazardous conditions for small craft are likely.

$$

Carlaw

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The "Hazardous Weather Outlook" contains information regarding any and all weather expected to occur within the region that could be hazardous to travel, life or property. This is one of our most highly recommended products to check on a daily basis, and it some cases multiple times per day should significant weather be expected to affect DuPage county.

SPC Convective Outlook Day 2

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854
ACUS02 KWNS 191653
SWODY2
SPC AC 191652

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL TEXAS AND FROM SOUTHERN ALABAMA ACROSS GEORGIA AND INTO
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe storms capable of strong wind gusts and hail will
be possible on Saturday across much of central Texas, and during the
afternoon from southern Alabama across parts of Georgia and into
southern South Carolina.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will move east from the Great Lakes into the
Northeast, as the parent upper low deepens over Hudson Bay. Moderate
westerly flow aloft will remain from the central Plains to the East
Coast, with a low-latitude wave moving from AZ/NM across the
southern Plains through Saturday night.

At the surface, high pressure will extend south and eastward across
much of the central and eastern CONUS, with a front from the coastal
Carolinas to the northern Gulf Coast and into southern TX. A moist
air mass will remain south of this boundary in TX, where lift north
of the boundary will lead to increase rain and thunderstorms.

...TX...
Primarily elevated thunderstorms are likely through much of the day
over parts of central and northern TX, with activity extending east
toward northern MS. This activity will be supported by modest warm
advection just above the cool post-frontal air mass. Instability may
still be substantial, especially just north of the surface front. As
such, a few hail reports will be possible over a relatively large
area, with a conditional risk of strong gusts closer to the front.

...Coastal SC into southern GA and AL...
The surface boundary will extend roughly from coastal SC across GA
and into southern AL during the afternoon, with strong heating
expected. Although gradual drying will occur due to westerly flow,
strong heating and sufficient moisture will still result in an
unstable air mass, and eastward-moving storms producing outflow are
anticipated. Given the steep low-level lapse rates, 1000-1500 SBCAPE
and sufficient deep-layer mean winds, isolated damaging gusts will
be possible.

..Jewell.. 04/19/2024

$$

The "Convective Outlooks" issued by SPC can be thought of as a detailed discussion of the Severe Thunderstorm threat and it's associated risks nationwide. Risk levels range from Marginal to Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High and are issued based on the likelihood of 3 major severe weather threats; the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. These discussions are often heavily laced meteorological terminology that may be difficult to understand without a background in the field. However understanding these discussions shouldn't be thought of as necessary. Instead, should DuPage county fall under one of these threat levels for severe weather, the response should be to have a heightened level of awareness about the deveoloping weather. Keep an eye on the "Watch County Notification" for any active severe weather watches issued for DuPage county; the "Hazardous Weather Outlook" and "Severe Weather Statement" can also be helpful in explaining the developing risk; additionally, watch for "Active Weather Warnings" and keep an eye on our "Regional Satellite and Radar" products which can be viewed with active watches/warnings or lightning activity.

SPC Convective Outlook Day 3

See Product Description

210
ACUS03 KWNS 190731
SWODY3
SPC AC 190730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday across parts of
the Gulf Coast region, but no severe threat is expected.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the central Gulf
Coast states on Sunday, as a cold front moves from the coastal areas
into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Isolated thunderstorms may develop
near the front early in the day. Other post-frontal storms may
develop in parts of the Gulf Coast states during the afternoon.
Instability across the Gulf Coast is expected to be very weak
limiting any potential for severe storms.

..Broyles.. 04/19/2024

$$

The "Convective Outlooks" issued by SPC can be thought of as a detailed discussion of the Severe Thunderstorm threat and it's associated risks nationwide. Risk levels range from Marginal to Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High and are issued based on the likelihood of 3 major severe weather threats; the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. These discussions are often heavily laced meteorological terminology that may be difficult to understand without a background in the field. However understanding these discussions shouldn't be thought of as necessary. Instead, should DuPage county fall under one of these threat levels for severe weather, the response should be to have a heightened level of awareness about the deveoloping weather. Keep an eye on the "Watch County Notification" for any active severe weather watches issued for DuPage county; the "Hazardous Weather Outlook" and "Severe Weather Statement" can also be helpful in explaining the developing risk; additionally, watch for "Active Weather Warnings" and keep an eye on our "Regional Satellite and Radar" products which can be viewed with active watches/warnings or lightning activity.

Special Weather Statement

See Product Description

No active Special Weather Statement for DuPage County.

The "Special Weather Statement" details notable weather either occuring or expected to occur, but does not necessarily have to be considered severe or hazardous. This is a supplementary product issued by the National Weather Service to help describe noteworthy weather. It's terminology should be reasonably easy to understand by the general public.

Watch County Notification

See Product Description

No active Watch County Notification for DuPage County.

The "Watch County Notification" will contain updates regarding active severe weather watches that pertain to DuPage county. This may be for a newly issued watch, or the cancelation of an existing watch. Severe weather watches come in two forms; Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado, and it should be noted that a Severe Thunderstorm Watch does NOT rule out the possibility of tornadoes occuring. It generally means that the tornado threat is minimal while damaging winds and hail are still likely. See our "Watch, Warning, and Advisory Criteria" for more detailed information on the differences and critera for watches, warnings and advisory for all forms of weather.

Winter Weather Statement

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No active Winter Weather Statement for DuPage County.

The "Winter Weather Statement" is a product aimed at the general public that will discuss impacts caused by winter weather. This may include information about watches, warnings and advisories as well as details about impactful winter weather that may not warrant the issuance of a watch, warning or advisory.

Severe Weather Statement

See Product Description

No active Severe Weather Statement for DuPage County.

The "Severe Weather Statement" is a product aimed at the general public that will discuss impacts caused by severe thunderstorms. This may include information about watches and warnings as well as details about impactful "sub-severe" weather that may not warrant the issuance of a watch or warning which sometimes may come when a watch or warning has been canceled.

Non-Precip Statement

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No active Non-Precip Statement for DuPage County.

The "Non-Precip Statement" is aimed at the general public and will detail notable weather that is either occuring or expected to occur, but does not relate to any form of precipitation. These would include but are not limited to high winds, reduced visibility or extreme temperatures.

Active Weather Warnings

Tornado Warnings

No active Tornado Warnings.

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings

No active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings.

Flood Warnings

No active Flood Warnings.

Winter Weather Warnings

No active Winter Weather Warnings.

General Tornado/Severe Weather Safety

1. A Tornado or Severe Thunderstorm Warning is issued when it has been reported, or when it has been detected via National Weather Service radar. It is to be interpreted that this event is occuring and is expected to affect all warned areas. Those within the warning need to take action immediately.
2. If under a warning remain calm and if it is necessary to seek shelter. Students and Employees should head to their nearest designated shelter area. The route to these shelter areas are posted in all rooms on campus and signs are placed in the hallways to direct you to the nearest shelter area. Review these instructions and be familiar with where your nearest shelter is. Stay indoors, away from windows and large unsupported ceilings. Faculty should account for their students and Supervisors should account for their areas employees.
3. If outside, take shelter in the nearest building.
4. After the storm has passed, dial Police at 911 to report any injuries or damage to buildings.
5. If the building is severely damaged, evacuate the building as soon as possible after the storm has passed.