SPC Convective Outlook Day 1

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326
ACUS01 KWNS 281243
SWODY1
SPC AC 281241

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 AM CDT Sun May 28 2023

Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN KS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across western
portions of the Great Plains this afternoon and evening. Hail and
severe gusts will be the main hazards.

...Plains through this evening...
The stagnant large-scale pattern persists with a Rex block from the
Great Lakes to the Southeast, though there are some subtle changes
underway across the Plains. Small height rises are expected today
over the southern Rockies (downstream from a closed low along the CA
coast), while convectively-enhanced shortwave troughs move slowly
northeast over the central/northern Plains, and southeastward along
the middle/lower Rio Grande Valley. The surface lee trough will be
loosely in phase with the trailing vorticity lobe aloft this
afternoon, though the details of thunderstorm development are
uncertain based on any lingering influences of clouds/convective
outflow through the day across KS and the TX Panhandle.

Assuming sufficient clearing in the wake of the morning convective
clusters, additional thunderstorm development will be possible along
the lee trough later this afternoon. Vertical shear will be on the
lower margins for supercells, so a mixed convective mode with
predominately multicell clusters is expected. Steep lapse rates and
MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg will support the potential for at least
isolated large hail and severe outflow gusts of 60-70 mph. Overall
confidence in the forecast scenario is low, and there is not much
difference in the severe threats (generally low end) comparing the
Slight risk to areas farther south and north.

...Rio Grande Valley through tonight...
The remnants of an overnight MCS continue to move east-southeastward
along the lower Rio Grande Valley this morning. Isolated strong
wind gusts may occur this morning near Brownsville, with a lull
expected thereafter through the afternoon (as a result of the
stabilizing effects of this morning convection). Additional storms
will likely form across northeast Mexico later this
afternoon/evening, and some of this convection could approach the TX
border this evening into early tonight.

..Thompson/Broyles.. 05/28/2023

$$

The "Convective Outlooks" issued by SPC can be thought of as a detailed discussion of the Severe Thunderstorm threat and it's associated risks nationwide. Risk levels range from Marginal to Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High and are issued based on the likelihood of 3 major severe weather threats; the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. These discussions are often heavily laced meteorological terminology that may be difficult to understand without a background in the field. However understanding these discussions shouldn't be thought of as necessary. Instead, should DuPage county fall under one of these threat levels for severe weather, the response should be to have a heightened level of awareness about the deveoloping weather. Keep an eye on the "Watch County Notification" for any active severe weather watches issued for DuPage county; the "Hazardous Weather Outlook" and "Severe Weather Statement" can also be helpful in explaining the developing risk; additionally, watch for "Active Weather Warnings" and keep an eye on our "Regional Satellite and Radar" products which can be viewed with active watches/warnings or lightning activity.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

See Product Description

307
FLUS43 KLOT 280826
HWOLOT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL
326 AM CDT Sun May 28 2023

ILZ003>006-008-010>013-019>021-023-032-033-039-103>108-INZ001-002-
010-011-019-290830-
Winnebago-Boone-McHenry-Lake IL-Ogle-Lee-De Kalb-Kane-DuPage-
La Salle-Kendall-Grundy-Kankakee-Livingston-Iroquois-Ford-
Northern Cook-Central Cook-Southern Cook-Northern Will-
Southern Will-Eastern Will-Lake IN-Porter-Newton-Jasper-Benton-
326 AM CDT Sun May 28 2023 /426 AM EDT Sun May 28 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North Central
Illinois...Northeast Illinois and Northwest Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Thursday and Friday...
Limited Thunderstorm Risk.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be necessary through tonight.

$$

LMZ740>745-290830-
Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL-
Wilmette Harbor to Northerly Island IL-
Northerly Island to Calumet Harbor IL-
Calumet Harbor IL to Gary IN-Gary to Burns Harbor IN-
Burns Harbor to Michigan City IN-
326 AM CDT Sun May 28 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Illinois
nearshore waters of Lake Michigan and the Indiana nearshore
waters of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Thursday and Friday...
Limited Thunderstorm Risk.

$$

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The "Hazardous Weather Outlook" contains information regarding any and all weather expected to occur within the region that could be hazardous to travel, life or property. This is one of our most highly recommended products to check on a daily basis, and it some cases multiple times per day should significant weather be expected to affect DuPage county.

SPC Convective Outlook Day 2

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608
ACUS02 KWNS 280543
SWODY2
SPC AC 280541

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 AM CDT Sun May 28 2023

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO...FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS...WESTERN NEBRASKA...MUCH OF SOUTH
DAKOTA AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail
and gusty winds will be possible across parts of the central High
Plains into the Dakotas vicinity Monday afternoon and evening.

...Northern/Central Plains...

A weak mid/upper shortwave trough will develop east across the
northern Plains, while another weak shortwave trough moves across TX
on Monday. Deep-layer flow will remain modest across the Plains,
similar to the previous several days. A surface trough associated
with a low over Ontario will shift east across the Dakotas. The
surface trough will weaken with southward extent, with a rather
nondescript surface pattern over the central Plains. Southerly
low-level flow will maintain 50s to low 60s F dewpoints. With a lack
of strong mid/upper level forcing and limited surface features to
focus convection, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
across much of the Plains. Most of this activity will likely remain
disorganized and limited in intensity. However, areas of steep
midlevel lapse rates and modest vertical shear could support
sporadic strong storms. Some increased severe potential could
develop across parts of the Dakotas, southwest toward northeast CO,
beneath the influence of the weak upper shortwave trough, and along
the better defined surface trough. Stronger instability and
somewhat stronger vertical shear will overlap across this area, with
hail and strong gusts being the main hazards associated any
organized and longer-lived convection.

...South Texas vicinity...

Some guidance suggests an MCV from remnant overnight convection may
move across southern portions of Texas on Monday. Seasonal moisture
will be in place with mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints forecast.
Lingering morning convection and cloud cover may limit stronger
heating, which may result in only weak diurnal destabilization.
Given uncertainty in the forecast of the MCV and concern over
instability amid generally weak vertical shear, severe probabilities
will not be included at this time, though may become necessary in
later outlooks depending on trends in forecast guidance and
observational trends.

..Leitman.. 05/28/2023

$$

The "Convective Outlooks" issued by SPC can be thought of as a detailed discussion of the Severe Thunderstorm threat and it's associated risks nationwide. Risk levels range from Marginal to Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High and are issued based on the likelihood of 3 major severe weather threats; the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. These discussions are often heavily laced meteorological terminology that may be difficult to understand without a background in the field. However understanding these discussions shouldn't be thought of as necessary. Instead, should DuPage county fall under one of these threat levels for severe weather, the response should be to have a heightened level of awareness about the deveoloping weather. Keep an eye on the "Watch County Notification" for any active severe weather watches issued for DuPage county; the "Hazardous Weather Outlook" and "Severe Weather Statement" can also be helpful in explaining the developing risk; additionally, watch for "Active Weather Warnings" and keep an eye on our "Regional Satellite and Radar" products which can be viewed with active watches/warnings or lightning activity.

SPC Convective Outlook Day 3

See Product Description

734
ACUS03 KWNS 280730
SWODY3
SPC AC 280728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Sun May 28 2023

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of strong gusts and
sporadic hail will be possible across parts of the central into the
northern Plains vicinity on Tuesday.

...Central to Northern Plains vicinity...

An upper ridge centered over the southern Rockies/High Plains
vicinity will result in modest northwesterly mid/upper flow from NE
southward into OK/TX on Tuesday. Several midlevel vorticity maxima
are forecast to migrate through this northwesterly flow across parts
of the central Plains. Upper 50s to low 60s F surface dewpoints and
strong heating will support moderate instability (1500-2500 J/kg
MLCAPE) from eastern CO into KS, southward into the TX
Panhandle/northwest OK. Vertical shear will remain modest. However,
steep low-level lapse rates and a deep, well-mixed boundary layer
could support strong downdrafts capable of isolated strong/severe
gusts gusts. Some potential for forward propagating clusters is
possible toward evening as a low-level jet modestly increases and
some better organized structures may develop via storm
interactions/consolidating outflows.

Further north, a mid/upper shortwave trough over the eastern Dakotas
vicinity will weaken and lift northeast through the day. Vertical
shear will remain weak, but 60s F surface dewpoints amid strong
heating and steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate
instability. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of
strong gusts and hail (in any longer lived updrafts) will be
possible during the afternoon/early evening.

..Leitman.. 05/28/2023

$$

The "Convective Outlooks" issued by SPC can be thought of as a detailed discussion of the Severe Thunderstorm threat and it's associated risks nationwide. Risk levels range from Marginal to Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High and are issued based on the likelihood of 3 major severe weather threats; the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. These discussions are often heavily laced meteorological terminology that may be difficult to understand without a background in the field. However understanding these discussions shouldn't be thought of as necessary. Instead, should DuPage county fall under one of these threat levels for severe weather, the response should be to have a heightened level of awareness about the deveoloping weather. Keep an eye on the "Watch County Notification" for any active severe weather watches issued for DuPage county; the "Hazardous Weather Outlook" and "Severe Weather Statement" can also be helpful in explaining the developing risk; additionally, watch for "Active Weather Warnings" and keep an eye on our "Regional Satellite and Radar" products which can be viewed with active watches/warnings or lightning activity.

Special Weather Statement

See Product Description

No active Special Weather Statement for DuPage County.

The "Special Weather Statement" details notable weather either occuring or expected to occur, but does not necessarily have to be considered severe or hazardous. This is a supplementary product issued by the National Weather Service to help describe noteworthy weather. It's terminology should be reasonably easy to understand by the general public.

Watch County Notification

See Product Description

No active Watch County Notification for DuPage County.

The "Watch County Notification" will contain updates regarding active severe weather watches that pertain to DuPage county. This may be for a newly issued watch, or the cancelation of an existing watch. Severe weather watches come in two forms; Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado, and it should be noted that a Severe Thunderstorm Watch does NOT rule out the possibility of tornadoes occuring. It generally means that the tornado threat is minimal while damaging winds and hail are still likely. See our "Watch, Warning, and Advisory Criteria" for more detailed information on the differences and critera for watches, warnings and advisory for all forms of weather.

Winter Weather Statement

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No active Winter Weather Statement for DuPage County.

The "Winter Weather Statement" is a product aimed at the general public that will discuss impacts caused by winter weather. This may include information about watches, warnings and advisories as well as details about impactful winter weather that may not warrant the issuance of a watch, warning or advisory.

Severe Weather Statement

See Product Description

No active Severe Weather Statement for DuPage County.

The "Severe Weather Statement" is a product aimed at the general public that will discuss impacts caused by severe thunderstorms. This may include information about watches and warnings as well as details about impactful "sub-severe" weather that may not warrant the issuance of a watch or warning which sometimes may come when a watch or warning has been canceled.

Non-Precip Statement

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No active Non-Precip Statement for DuPage County.

The "Non-Precip Statement" is aimed at the general public and will detail notable weather that is either occuring or expected to occur, but does not relate to any form of precipitation. These would include but are not limited to high winds, reduced visibility or extreme temperatures.

Active Weather Warnings

Tornado Warnings

No active Tornado Warnings.

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings

No active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings.

Flood Warnings

No active Flood Warnings.

General Tornado/Severe Weather Safety

1. A Tornado or Severe Thunderstorm Warning is issued when it has been reported, or when it has been detected via National Weather Service radar. It is to be interpreted that this event is occuring and is expected to affect all warned areas. Those within the warning need to take action immediately.
2. If under a warning remain calm and if it is necessary to seek shelter. Students and Employees should head to their nearest designated shelter area. The route to these shelter areas are posted in all rooms on campus and signs are placed in the hallways to direct you to the nearest shelter area. Review these instructions and be familiar with where your nearest shelter is. Stay indoors, away from windows and large unsupported ceilings. Faculty should account for their students and Supervisors should account for their areas employees.
3. If outside, take shelter in the nearest building.
4. After the storm has passed, dial Police at 911 to report any injuries or damage to buildings.
5. If the building is severely damaged, evacuate the building as soon as possible after the storm has passed.