SPC Convective Outlook Day 1

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423
ACUS01 KWNS 242001
SWODY1
SPC AC 241959

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

Valid 242000Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ARKLATEX/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe hail and damaging gusts are expected later this afternoon and
evening across central/northeast Texas and possibly far southern
Oklahoma and the Arklatex vicinity.

...20Z Update...
No changes have been made to the severe probabilities. Supercell
development remains possible later this afternoon into this evening
from central TX into the ArkLaTex region, with some clustering of
storms possible tonight. Very large hail and severe/damaging gusts
will be the primary threats. The greatest relative threat may become
centered over northeast TX, to the east of a surface low. Some
enhancement to low-level shear/SRH in this region may support the
threat of a tornado as well. See the previous discussion below and
MCD 2192 for more information.

..Dean.. 09/24/2023

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023/

...Central Texas to southeast Oklahoma/ArkLaTex...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, potentially very large
(2+ inch in some cases), and damaging winds are expected mainly late
this afternoon and much of the evening especially across parts of
central to north/northeast Texas, and possibly nearby parts of
southern Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex region.

Water vapor imagery continues to feature an eastward-moving
low-amplitude shortwave trough and mid-level speed max over the
southern High Plains late this morning, with these features expected
to reach the region (north Texas/ArkLaTex) by late afternoon and
evening. Meanwhile, a northeast/southwest-oriented front will settle
southward across the region, with augmenting outflow/differential
heating influences across the ArkLaTex. Ample warm-sector heating is
anticipated under cloud-free skies early today, where plentiful
upper 60s to middle 70s F surface dewpoints currently reside.

Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorm development is expected
as early as late afternoon near the front/surface low and possibly
also influenced by aforementioned residual outflow/differential
heating and pre-frontal convergence. Upwards of 2500-3500 J/kg
MLCAPE in the presence of moderate-caliber effective shear
(generally 30-40 kt effective) will support some initial supercells
cable of large hail, with some potentially significant in excess of
2 inches in diameter. A low-probability tornado risk may also exist
in areas such as northeast Texas, where 1-3 km AGL winds will be a
bit stronger to the east of the surface wave across north Texas.

Storms are likely to cluster/grow upscale across the warm sector
this evening, with damaging winds and some hail risk continuing,
while other storms may develop tonight as far north as far southern
Oklahoma/north Texas and ArkLaTex as a low-level jet and related
warm advection increase.

$$

The "Convective Outlooks" issued by SPC can be thought of as a detailed discussion of the Severe Thunderstorm threat and it's associated risks nationwide. Risk levels range from Marginal to Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High and are issued based on the likelihood of 3 major severe weather threats; the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. These discussions are often heavily laced meteorological terminology that may be difficult to understand without a background in the field. However understanding these discussions shouldn't be thought of as necessary. Instead, should DuPage county fall under one of these threat levels for severe weather, the response should be to have a heightened level of awareness about the deveoloping weather. Keep an eye on the "Watch County Notification" for any active severe weather watches issued for DuPage county; the "Hazardous Weather Outlook" and "Severe Weather Statement" can also be helpful in explaining the developing risk; additionally, watch for "Active Weather Warnings" and keep an eye on our "Regional Satellite and Radar" products which can be viewed with active watches/warnings or lightning activity.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

See Product Description

636
FLUS43 KLOT 241930
HWOLOT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL
230 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

ILZ003>006-008-010>013-019>021-023-032-033-039-103>108-INZ001-002-
010-011-019-251930-
Winnebago-Boone-McHenry-Lake IL-Ogle-Lee-De Kalb-Kane-DuPage-
La Salle-Kendall-Grundy-Kankakee-Livingston-Iroquois-Ford-
Northern Cook-Central Cook-Southern Cook-Northern Will-
Southern Will-Eastern Will-Lake IN-Porter-Newton-Jasper-Benton-
230 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023 /330 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North Central
Illinois...Northeast Illinois and Northwest Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Monday night through Wednesday ...
Limited Thunderstorm Risk.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be necessary through tonight.

$$

LMZ740>745-251930-
Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL-
Wilmette Harbor to Northerly Island IL-
Northerly Island to Calumet Harbor IL-
Calumet Harbor IL to Gary IN-Gary to Burns Harbor IN-
Burns Harbor to Michigan City IN-
230 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Illinois
nearshore waters of Lake Michigan and the Indiana nearshore
waters of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Monday night through Wednesday...
Limited Thunderstorm Risk.

$$

Borchardt

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The "Hazardous Weather Outlook" contains information regarding any and all weather expected to occur within the region that could be hazardous to travel, life or property. This is one of our most highly recommended products to check on a daily basis, and it some cases multiple times per day should significant weather be expected to affect DuPage county.

SPC Convective Outlook Day 2

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021
ACUS02 KWNS 241722
SWODY2
SPC AC 241720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TX
TRANS-PECOS REGION EASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER TX COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible
across parts of Texas on Monday.

...Parts of TX into southern LA...
Convection will likely be ongoing Monday morning across parts of
central TX into the upper TX Coast, though the coverage and
intensity of the early-day storms remains uncertain. The Sunday
night into Monday morning convection will influence the position of
a cold front that will likely become draped somewhere from southwest
TX into central TX and the mid/upper TX Coast by Monday afternoon.
Diurnal heating and favorable low-level moisture will support
moderate to locally strong buoyancy near/south of the front, and
also within a post-frontal regime across the TX Trans-Pecos region.

Large-scale ascent will largely remain weak across the region, but
isolated to widely scattered diurnal thunderstorm development will
be possible within a weakly capped environment near the front, and
also across the higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos. Modest midlevel
northwesterly flow will support effective shear generally in the
20-30 kt range, sufficient for a few semi-organized cells/clusters
during the afternoon and evening. Isolated severe gusts will be
possible with the strongest storms, with some hail potential also
evident from the Trans-Pecos into Edwards Plateau vicinity, where
somewhat steeper midlevel lapse rates are expected compared to areas
farther east.

..Dean.. 09/24/2023

$$

The "Convective Outlooks" issued by SPC can be thought of as a detailed discussion of the Severe Thunderstorm threat and it's associated risks nationwide. Risk levels range from Marginal to Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High and are issued based on the likelihood of 3 major severe weather threats; the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. These discussions are often heavily laced meteorological terminology that may be difficult to understand without a background in the field. However understanding these discussions shouldn't be thought of as necessary. Instead, should DuPage county fall under one of these threat levels for severe weather, the response should be to have a heightened level of awareness about the deveoloping weather. Keep an eye on the "Watch County Notification" for any active severe weather watches issued for DuPage county; the "Hazardous Weather Outlook" and "Severe Weather Statement" can also be helpful in explaining the developing risk; additionally, watch for "Active Weather Warnings" and keep an eye on our "Regional Satellite and Radar" products which can be viewed with active watches/warnings or lightning activity.

SPC Convective Outlook Day 3

See Product Description

909
ACUS03 KWNS 240730
SWODY3
SPC AC 240729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PECOS VALLEY TO BIG BEND...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms, associated with strong winds and hail, will be
possible on Tuesday across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and
Pecos Valley to Big Bend.

...Mid Mississippi Valley...
An upper-level low is forecast to move southeastward across Iowa on
Tuesday, as a cold front advances southward into northern Missouri
and western Illinois. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints around
60 F along with surface heating will result in weak destabilization
across much of the mid Mississippi Valley by afternoon. A small
pocket of moderate instability could develop by late afternoon, most
likely in Missouri. Scattered convection is expected to initiate
ahead of the upper-level low and near the front, with storms moving
southeastward across the mid Mississippi Valley. Forecast soundings
near St. Louis at 00Z/Thursday have MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg, with 0-6
km shear around 30 knots, and 500 mb temperatures around -14C. This
could be enough for hail with the stronger cores. A few strong gusts
may also occur.

...West Texas/Eastern New Mexico...
Northwesterly flow at mid-levels is forecast on Tuesday across much
of the Rockies and southern Plains. At the surface, an axis of
maximized low-level moisture is forecast from southwest Texas
extending northwestward into southeast New Mexico. Surface dewpoints
near this axis will likely be in the lower 60s F, possibly yielding
moderate instability by afternoon as surface temperatures warm. In
spite of the lack of large-scale ascent, isolated thunderstorms
appear likely to develop in the higher terrain. This convection will
move into the lower elevations during the late afternoon. Steep
low-level lapse rates, along with modest deep-layer shear may be
enough for a marginal severe threat. Hail and strong gusts will be
the primary hazards.

..Broyles.. 09/24/2023

$$

The "Convective Outlooks" issued by SPC can be thought of as a detailed discussion of the Severe Thunderstorm threat and it's associated risks nationwide. Risk levels range from Marginal to Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High and are issued based on the likelihood of 3 major severe weather threats; the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. These discussions are often heavily laced meteorological terminology that may be difficult to understand without a background in the field. However understanding these discussions shouldn't be thought of as necessary. Instead, should DuPage county fall under one of these threat levels for severe weather, the response should be to have a heightened level of awareness about the deveoloping weather. Keep an eye on the "Watch County Notification" for any active severe weather watches issued for DuPage county; the "Hazardous Weather Outlook" and "Severe Weather Statement" can also be helpful in explaining the developing risk; additionally, watch for "Active Weather Warnings" and keep an eye on our "Regional Satellite and Radar" products which can be viewed with active watches/warnings or lightning activity.

Special Weather Statement

See Product Description

No active Special Weather Statement for DuPage County.

The "Special Weather Statement" details notable weather either occuring or expected to occur, but does not necessarily have to be considered severe or hazardous. This is a supplementary product issued by the National Weather Service to help describe noteworthy weather. It's terminology should be reasonably easy to understand by the general public.

Watch County Notification

See Product Description

No active Watch County Notification for DuPage County.

The "Watch County Notification" will contain updates regarding active severe weather watches that pertain to DuPage county. This may be for a newly issued watch, or the cancelation of an existing watch. Severe weather watches come in two forms; Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado, and it should be noted that a Severe Thunderstorm Watch does NOT rule out the possibility of tornadoes occuring. It generally means that the tornado threat is minimal while damaging winds and hail are still likely. See our "Watch, Warning, and Advisory Criteria" for more detailed information on the differences and critera for watches, warnings and advisory for all forms of weather.

Winter Weather Statement

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No active Winter Weather Statement for DuPage County.

The "Winter Weather Statement" is a product aimed at the general public that will discuss impacts caused by winter weather. This may include information about watches, warnings and advisories as well as details about impactful winter weather that may not warrant the issuance of a watch, warning or advisory.

Severe Weather Statement

See Product Description

No active Severe Weather Statement for DuPage County.

The "Severe Weather Statement" is a product aimed at the general public that will discuss impacts caused by severe thunderstorms. This may include information about watches and warnings as well as details about impactful "sub-severe" weather that may not warrant the issuance of a watch or warning which sometimes may come when a watch or warning has been canceled.

Non-Precip Statement

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No active Non-Precip Statement for DuPage County.

The "Non-Precip Statement" is aimed at the general public and will detail notable weather that is either occuring or expected to occur, but does not relate to any form of precipitation. These would include but are not limited to high winds, reduced visibility or extreme temperatures.

Active Weather Warnings

Tornado Warnings

No active Tornado Warnings.

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings

No active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings.

Flood Warnings

No active Flood Warnings.

General Tornado/Severe Weather Safety

1. A Tornado or Severe Thunderstorm Warning is issued when it has been reported, or when it has been detected via National Weather Service radar. It is to be interpreted that this event is occuring and is expected to affect all warned areas. Those within the warning need to take action immediately.
2. If under a warning remain calm and if it is necessary to seek shelter. Students and Employees should head to their nearest designated shelter area. The route to these shelter areas are posted in all rooms on campus and signs are placed in the hallways to direct you to the nearest shelter area. Review these instructions and be familiar with where your nearest shelter is. Stay indoors, away from windows and large unsupported ceilings. Faculty should account for their students and Supervisors should account for their areas employees.
3. If outside, take shelter in the nearest building.
4. After the storm has passed, dial Police at 911 to report any injuries or damage to buildings.
5. If the building is severely damaged, evacuate the building as soon as possible after the storm has passed.