SPC Convective Outlook Day 1

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583
ACUS01 KWNS 240536
SWODY1
SPC AC 240535

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are possible across part of the southern Plains to the
Southeast today. Severe wind gusts, large hail and perhaps a couple
tornadoes are expected. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter
could also occur. Isolated severe storms will also be possible
across parts of the central High Plains and south Florida.

...Southern Plains to Southeast...

Large-scale pattern will not change appreciably today as upper
troughing remains established over the Great Lakes/Northeast, and
across the Great Basin. As a result, neutral-weak height rises are
forecast across much of the CONUS. Latest model guidance suggests
mid-level ridging will be the dominant feature across the High
Plains, with west-northwesterly flow expected to extend downstream
into the central Gulf States region.

This flow regime warrants caution regarding predictability as
warm-advection clusters will likely be noted through the period
along this corridor. Despite the unpredictability of these clusters,
substantial convective overturning and boundary-layer disruption are
expected. Early this morning, several convective clusters continue,
or have developed, from Kansas into northern Arkansas. Some of this
activity is a continuation of late-day initiation across the High
Plains, while newer development is due to increasing low-level warm
advection across central Oklahoma into the Ozarks. Much of this
activity may be ongoing at the start of the day1 period. If adequate
LLJ is maintained into the mid-South, an MCS may ultimately evolve
and propagate across this region. A secondary, perhaps more
significant, scenario is for diurnally enhanced development along a
front/dry line that should extend across OK into the TX South
Plains. Strongest boundary-layer heating is expected across west
Texas into southwest Oklahoma. This should result in convective
temperatures being breached by late afternoon. Steep lapse rates and
strong buoyancy favor robust updrafts and potential supercell
development. Very large hail would be the greatest concern, though a
tornado can not be ruled out.

...CO/WY...

Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms may develop against the higher
terrain of the eastern slopes this afternoon, where upslope flow
remains favorably moist. While buoyancy is not forecast to be that
significant, adequate shear favors some supercell concern.

...South Florida...

Seasonally cool mid-level temperatures persist across the southern
Peninsula today. In the absence of large-scale changes, robust
convection is once again expected as temperatures warm into the
early afternoon. Sea breeze interactions will prove instrumental in
this development, and the strongest storms will pose at least some
risk for wind gusts and hail.

..Darrow/Thornton.. 05/24/2025

$$

The "Convective Outlooks" issued by SPC can be thought of as a detailed discussion of the Severe Thunderstorm threat and it's associated risks nationwide. Risk levels range from Marginal to Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High and are issued based on the likelihood of 3 major severe weather threats; the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. These discussions are often heavily laced meteorological terminology that may be difficult to understand without a background in the field. However understanding these discussions shouldn't be thought of as necessary. Instead, should DuPage county fall under one of these threat levels for severe weather, the response should be to have a heightened level of awareness about the deveoloping weather. Keep an eye on the "Watch County Notification" for any active severe weather watches issued for DuPage county; the "Hazardous Weather Outlook" and "Severe Weather Statement" can also be helpful in explaining the developing risk; additionally, watch for "Active Weather Warnings" and keep an eye on our "Regional Satellite and Radar" products which can be viewed with active watches/warnings or lightning activity.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

See Product Description

826
FLUS43 KLOT 240819
HWOLOT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL
319 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

ILZ003>006-008-010>013-019>021-023-032-033-039-103>108-INZ001-002-
010-011-019-250830-
Winnebago-Boone-McHenry-Lake IL-Ogle-Lee-De Kalb-Kane-DuPage-
La Salle-Kendall-Grundy-Kankakee-Livingston-Iroquois-Ford-
Northern Cook-Central Cook-Southern Cook-Northern Will-
Southern Will-Eastern Will-Lake IN-Porter-Newton-Jasper-Benton-
319 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025 /419 AM EDT Sat May 24 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be necessary through tonight.

$$

LMZ740>745-250830-
Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL-
Wilmette Harbor to Northerly Island IL-
Northerly Island to Calumet Harbor IL-
Calumet Harbor IL to Gary IN-Gary to Burns Harbor IN-
Burns Harbor to Michigan City IN-
319 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Illinois
nearshore waters of Lake Michigan and the Indiana nearshore
waters of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

$$

Ogorek

Visit us at www.weather.gov/chicago

The "Hazardous Weather Outlook" contains information regarding any and all weather expected to occur within the region that could be hazardous to travel, life or property. This is one of our most highly recommended products to check on a daily basis, and it some cases multiple times per day should significant weather be expected to affect DuPage county.

SPC Convective Outlook Day 2

See Product Description

052
ACUS02 KWNS 240559
SWODY2
SPC AC 240558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...OZARKS...LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
A severe threat is expected Sunday afternoon and evening across
parts of the southern and central Plains. A threat for large hail,
wind damage and a couple tornadoes will be possible. A wind damage
and hail threat is also expected from parts of the Ozarks into the
Southeast.

...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks/Lower To Mid Mississippi
Valley/Central Gulf Coast States...
A mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central
Plains on Sunday, as southwest flow becomes established in the wake
of the ridge. At the surface, a front is forecast to be located
across central Oklahoma eastward into the Ozarks early in the day.
Near the front, some model forecasts show a linear convective system
at the start of the period in the western Ozarks. This convection
could become organized as surface temperatures warm across a moist
and unstable airmass from the lower to mid Mississippi Valley into
the central Gulf Coast states. Wind-damage and hail would be the
primary threats.

Further west, the front in Oklahoma is forecast to extend
southwestward to a low in west Texas. Along and to the southeast of
the front, surface dewpoints are forecast to be from the mid 60s to
the lower 70s F. Across the moist airmas, the NAM and ECMWF are in
reasonably good agreement, suggesting MLCAPE will peak in the 4000
to 5000 J/kg range from northwest Texas to central Oklahoma.
Although large-scale ascent will likely remain weak, low-level
convergence along the front should result in convective initiation
during the late afternoon.

Near the forecast instability maximum, NAM forecast soundings at 21Z
across central and southwest Oklahoma have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to
40 knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates from 8.5 to 9 C/Km. This
environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail.
Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with
the more dominant storms. An isolated tornado threat could also
develop, as low-level flow increases during the evening. Supercells
will also be capable of damaging wind gusts. Due to the relatively
weak large-ascent, thunderstorm coverage could remain somewhat
widely spaced across parts of southwest Oklahoma and northwest
Texas.

Further northwest into parts of the southern and central High
Plains, isolated thunderstorms are expected to move off the higher
terrain during the afternoon. Although instability is forecast to
remain weak, steep mid-level lapse rates could be sufficient for
marginally severe hail. A few marginally severe gusts could also
occur.

..Broyles.. 05/24/2025

$$

The "Convective Outlooks" issued by SPC can be thought of as a detailed discussion of the Severe Thunderstorm threat and it's associated risks nationwide. Risk levels range from Marginal to Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High and are issued based on the likelihood of 3 major severe weather threats; the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. These discussions are often heavily laced meteorological terminology that may be difficult to understand without a background in the field. However understanding these discussions shouldn't be thought of as necessary. Instead, should DuPage county fall under one of these threat levels for severe weather, the response should be to have a heightened level of awareness about the deveoloping weather. Keep an eye on the "Watch County Notification" for any active severe weather watches issued for DuPage county; the "Hazardous Weather Outlook" and "Severe Weather Statement" can also be helpful in explaining the developing risk; additionally, watch for "Active Weather Warnings" and keep an eye on our "Regional Satellite and Radar" products which can be viewed with active watches/warnings or lightning activity.

SPC Convective Outlook Day 3

See Product Description

245
ACUS03 KWNS 240729
SWODY3
SPC AC 240729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
A severe threat is expected on Monday across parts of the southern
Plains, with large hail and wind damage as the primary threats.
Marginally severe storms will also be possible outside the Slight
Risk area from the southern Plains into the Southeast.

...Southern Plains...
At mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move into the
southern and central High Plains on Monday, as southwest flow
persists over much of the south-central U.S. Early in the day,
warm-advection-related convection is expected to be ongoing at the
start of the period over parts of the southern Plains. Morning
storms will hamper destabilization in some areas, especially further
north into parts of Oklahoma and the Ozarks. The effective cold
front could be located near the Red River extending eastward into
the Ark-La-Tex. To the south, model forecasts suggest that strong
instability will develop by midday. As surface heating takes place,
and low-level convergence increases near the front, scattered
thunderstorm initiation is expected in the afternoon. Model
forecasts suggest that storm coverage will increase in the
afternoon, developing southward across parts of north and central
Texas. The ECMWF has been relatively consistent with scenario from
run to run.

Forecast soundings from the ECMWF at 00Z/Monday within parts of this
unstable airmass have 0-6 km shear above 30 knots with 700-500 mb
lapse rates near 8 C/km. Since deep-layer shear is forecast to be
marginal for supercells, a mixed mode would be expected. Near
instability maxima, supercells could form and have a large hail
threat. In other areas where instability is lessened, short line
segments with severe gusts would be favored.

...Southeast...
A west-southwesterly mid-level flow pattern is expected over the
Southeast. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast from the
lower Mississippi Valley eastward to the southern Atlantic Seaboard.
As surface temperatures warm across this airmass during the day,
moderate instability is expected to develop in some areas.
Thunderstorms appear likely to form along pre-existing boundaries
and along focused zones of low-level convergence. Although
deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak, low-level lapse
rates will likely become steep in areas that heat up the most. This
should support marginally severe wind gusts with multicells that
become locally intense.

..Broyles.. 05/24/2025

$$

The "Convective Outlooks" issued by SPC can be thought of as a detailed discussion of the Severe Thunderstorm threat and it's associated risks nationwide. Risk levels range from Marginal to Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High and are issued based on the likelihood of 3 major severe weather threats; the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. These discussions are often heavily laced meteorological terminology that may be difficult to understand without a background in the field. However understanding these discussions shouldn't be thought of as necessary. Instead, should DuPage county fall under one of these threat levels for severe weather, the response should be to have a heightened level of awareness about the deveoloping weather. Keep an eye on the "Watch County Notification" for any active severe weather watches issued for DuPage county; the "Hazardous Weather Outlook" and "Severe Weather Statement" can also be helpful in explaining the developing risk; additionally, watch for "Active Weather Warnings" and keep an eye on our "Regional Satellite and Radar" products which can be viewed with active watches/warnings or lightning activity.

Special Weather Statement

See Product Description

No active Special Weather Statement for DuPage County.

The "Special Weather Statement" details notable weather either occuring or expected to occur, but does not necessarily have to be considered severe or hazardous. This is a supplementary product issued by the National Weather Service to help describe noteworthy weather. It's terminology should be reasonably easy to understand by the general public.

Watch County Notification

See Product Description

No active Watch County Notification for DuPage County.

The "Watch County Notification" will contain updates regarding active severe weather watches that pertain to DuPage county. This may be for a newly issued watch, or the cancelation of an existing watch. Severe weather watches come in two forms; Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado, and it should be noted that a Severe Thunderstorm Watch does NOT rule out the possibility of tornadoes occuring. It generally means that the tornado threat is minimal while damaging winds and hail are still likely. See our "Watch, Warning, and Advisory Criteria" for more detailed information on the differences and critera for watches, warnings and advisory for all forms of weather.

Winter Weather Statement

See Product Description

No active Winter Weather Statement for DuPage County.

The "Winter Weather Statement" is a product aimed at the general public that will discuss impacts caused by winter weather. This may include information about watches, warnings and advisories as well as details about impactful winter weather that may not warrant the issuance of a watch, warning or advisory.

Severe Weather Statement

See Product Description

No active Severe Weather Statement for DuPage County.

The "Severe Weather Statement" is a product aimed at the general public that will discuss impacts caused by severe thunderstorms. This may include information about watches and warnings as well as details about impactful "sub-severe" weather that may not warrant the issuance of a watch or warning which sometimes may come when a watch or warning has been canceled.

Non-Precip Statement

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No active Non-Precip Statement for DuPage County.

The "Non-Precip Statement" is aimed at the general public and will detail notable weather that is either occuring or expected to occur, but does not relate to any form of precipitation. These would include but are not limited to high winds, reduced visibility or extreme temperatures.

Active Weather Warnings

Tornado Warnings

No active Tornado Warnings.

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings

No active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings.

Flood Warnings

No active Flood Warnings.

General Tornado/Severe Weather Safety

1. A Tornado or Severe Thunderstorm Warning is issued when it has been reported, or when it has been detected via National Weather Service radar. It is to be interpreted that this event is occuring and is expected to affect all warned areas. Those within the warning need to take action immediately.
2. If under a warning remain calm and if it is necessary to seek shelter. Students and Employees should head to their nearest designated shelter area. The route to these shelter areas are posted in all rooms on campus and signs are placed in the hallways to direct you to the nearest shelter area. Review these instructions and be familiar with where your nearest shelter is. Stay indoors, away from windows and large unsupported ceilings. Faculty should account for their students and Supervisors should account for their areas employees.
3. If outside, take shelter in the nearest building.
4. After the storm has passed, dial Police at 911 to report any injuries or damage to buildings.
5. If the building is severely damaged, evacuate the building as soon as possible after the storm has passed.