SPC Convective Outlook Day 1

See Product Description

294
ACUS01 KWNS 190535
SWODY1
SPC AC 190534

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN MISSOURI
ACROSS MUCH OF ILLINOIS...INDIANA...KENTUCKY...OHIO...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms, with potential for a couple tornadoes, large
hail and damaging wind gusts are possible across parts of the middle
Mississippi to lower Ohio Valleys today. Storms may produce strong
gusts over parts of coastal central California this morning.

...Mid MS Valley / Midwest / OH Valley...
Strong southwest flow aloft will stretch from AZ/NM across OK/TX and
into the mid MS Valley and OH Valleys. As a trough begins to amplify
across the central Plains, significant warming aloft will occur in
the midlevels, which may impact quality of instability over the
Midwest. However, low-level moisture will already be in place with
50s F dewpoints common and perhaps lower 60s F toward the lower OH
Valley, which will initially support favorable instability profiles
between 12-18Z today, before the stronger warming aloft occurs.

Low pressure will deepen into MO during the day and move into lower
MI by 12Z Friday. A 40 kt low-level jet beneath strong midlevel
winds will result in long hodographs, and, 200-300 m2/s2 SRH over
much of the warm sector including eastern MO, IL, IN, KY, and OH.
Strong heating over MO will result in steep lapse rates and storms
are likely to form there near 12-15Z. This activity should generally
spread northeastward during the day across IL and IN, perhaps
extending into western KY. A couple supercells appear likely, with
tornado/hail/wind potential. Behind this initial/midday activity,
the rapid warming aloft may reduce potential for additional storms.
However, elevated instability should support storms producing hail
farther northeast in the warm advection regime across the upper OH
Valley and perhaps approaching Lake Erie.

...Central CA Coast...
A line of shallow convection is forecast to be ongoing close to
Monterey County at 12Z this morning, and this activity will
translate southward along the coast through 15-18Z. Forecast
soundings indicate shallow SBCAPE of 100-200 J/kg, along with
moderate mean boundary-layer winds just off the surface. As such,
locally strong to damaging gusts cannot be ruled out as the front
pushes south.

..Jewell/Squitieri.. 02/19/2026

$$

The "Convective Outlooks" issued by SPC can be thought of as a detailed discussion of the Severe Thunderstorm threat and it's associated risks nationwide. Risk levels range from Marginal to Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High and are issued based on the likelihood of 3 major severe weather threats; the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. These discussions are often heavily laced meteorological terminology that may be difficult to understand without a background in the field. However understanding these discussions shouldn't be thought of as necessary. Instead, should DuPage county fall under one of these threat levels for severe weather, the response should be to have a heightened level of awareness about the deveoloping weather. Keep an eye on the "Watch County Notification" for any active severe weather watches issued for DuPage county; the "Hazardous Weather Outlook" and "Severe Weather Statement" can also be helpful in explaining the developing risk; additionally, watch for "Active Weather Warnings" and keep an eye on our "Regional Satellite and Radar" products which can be viewed with active watches/warnings or lightning activity.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

See Product Description

535
FLUS43 KLOT 190342 AAA
HWOLOT

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL
942 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

ILZ003>006-008-010>013-019>021-023-032-033-039-103>108-INZ001-002-
010-011-019-200345-
Winnebago-Boone-McHenry-Lake IL-Ogle-Lee-De Kalb-Kane-DuPage-
La Salle-Kendall-Grundy-Kankakee-Livingston-Iroquois-Ford-
Northern Cook-Central Cook-Southern Cook-Northern Will-
Southern Will-Eastern Will-Lake IN-Porter-Newton-Jasper-Benton-
942 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026 /1042 PM EST Wed Feb 18 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

Limited Thunderstorm Risk.

DISCUSSION...

Isolated thunderstorms may develop near and south of a Gibson
City, Illinois to Rensselaer, Indiana line late tonight. If storms
develop they would be capable of lightning and small hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thursday...
Limited Thunderstorm Risk...with an associated:
Level 2 of 5 Severe Thunderstorm Risk.

DISCUSSION...

Additional thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon and evening on
Thursday, some of which could be strong to severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be necessary through tonight.

GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY:

Moving toward the northeast at 45 mph.

$$

LMZ740>745-200345-
Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL-
Wilmette Harbor to Northerly Island IL-
Northerly Island to Calumet Harbor IL-
Calumet Harbor IL to Gary IN-Gary to Burns Harbor IN-
Burns Harbor to Michigan City IN-
942 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Illinois
nearshore waters of Lake Michigan and the Indiana nearshore
waters of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thursday...
Hazardous conditions for small craft are likely.
Limited Thunderstorm Risk...with an associated:
Level 1 of 5 Severe Thunderstorm Risk.
Friday...
Gale force winds and hazardous waves are possible.
Friday night through Tuesday...
Hazardous conditions for small craft are likely.

$$

Petr

Visit us at www.weather.gov/chicago

The "Hazardous Weather Outlook" contains information regarding any and all weather expected to occur within the region that could be hazardous to travel, life or property. This is one of our most highly recommended products to check on a daily basis, and it some cases multiple times per day should significant weather be expected to affect DuPage county.

SPC Convective Outlook Day 2

See Product Description

673
ACUS02 KWNS 190602
SWODY2
SPC AC 190600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY
EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...GEORGIA AND PERHAPS ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered, but generally weak, thunderstorm activity is
possible Friday east of the lower Great Lakes into Mid Atlantic and
Southeast. A more substantive increase and clustering of
thunderstorms appears possible across parts of the northern Gulf
Coast states late Friday evening into early Saturday, which may pose
at least some risk for severe hail and localized strong, but
generally sub-severe wind gusts.

...Discussion...
Models continue to indicate that mid/upper flow will undergo renewed
amplification across the central into eastern mid-latitude Pacific
through this period. This is likely to include a significant short
wave trough digging south-southeast of the Gulf of Alaska (roughly
along 140W longitude), to the east of building ridging across and
north-northwest of the Aleutians. Farther east, mid-level ridging
is forecast to build inland of the Pacific coast, with remnant
larger-scale downstream troughing developing eastward across the
Rockies through Mississippi Valley.

There remains spread among model output concerning the continuing
strength of a short wave perturbation, which earlier emerged
from this troughing, after it reaches southwestern portions of the
Great Lakes region by the beginning of the period. It is generally
forecast to become sheared and weaken as it progresses to the south
of a blocking mid-level high centered near southern Hudson Bay, and
downstream troughing digging into the Canadian Maritimes and
northern New England. However, it appears possible that it may
maintain considerable strength east-northeastward across the lower
Great Lakes region through the day Friday, while its associated
occluding surface cyclone weakens across Michigan.

It continues to appear that secondary surface cyclogenesis will be
slow/subdued from the lee of the Blue Ridge across and
east-northeast of the northern Mid Atlantic, before perhaps
undergoing more substantive deepening offshore Friday night. The
trailing surface frontal zone probably will tend to stall across the
Carolinas, while retreating northward near the southern edge of the
strong westerlies across the Gulf Coast states by 12Z Saturday, in
advance of a short wave perturbation emerging from the Southwest.

Further low-level moistening associated with return flow off the
Gulf is probable along and south of the front. However, warm
layers aloft, near the northwestern periphery of mid/upper
subtropical ridging centered across the Bahamas/Caribbean, may tend
inhibit destabilization and thunderstorm development through much of
Friday into Friday evening.

...Gulf Coast States...
While mid/upper forcing for ascent associated with the short wave
trough emerging from the Southwest may remain well to the cool side
of the surface frontal zone, it appears that strengthening
lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection will support potential for
increasing thunderstorm development by late Friday evening and
continue overnight. There appears a consensus among latest model
output that this will focus across parts of northern Mississippi,
Alabama and Georgia by 12Z Saturday. While this is likely to become
rooted above a cool, stable near-surface layer, forecast soundings
indicate that an initially warm/dry capping layer above the moist
layer will contribute to convectively unstable thermodynamic
profiles, which may become conducive to severe hail, in the presence
of strong cloud bearing layer shear. Potential for severe gusts
appears low, but as activity strengthens and perhaps organizes
overnight, gusty surface winds may accompany activity.

..Kerr.. 02/19/2026

$$

The "Convective Outlooks" issued by SPC can be thought of as a detailed discussion of the Severe Thunderstorm threat and it's associated risks nationwide. Risk levels range from Marginal to Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High and are issued based on the likelihood of 3 major severe weather threats; the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. These discussions are often heavily laced meteorological terminology that may be difficult to understand without a background in the field. However understanding these discussions shouldn't be thought of as necessary. Instead, should DuPage county fall under one of these threat levels for severe weather, the response should be to have a heightened level of awareness about the deveoloping weather. Keep an eye on the "Watch County Notification" for any active severe weather watches issued for DuPage county; the "Hazardous Weather Outlook" and "Severe Weather Statement" can also be helpful in explaining the developing risk; additionally, watch for "Active Weather Warnings" and keep an eye on our "Regional Satellite and Radar" products which can be viewed with active watches/warnings or lightning activity.

SPC Convective Outlook Day 3

See Product Description

231
ACUS03 KWNS 181932
SWODY3
SPC AC 181931

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Probabilities for severe storms Friday through Friday night appear
less than 5 percent across the U.S.

...Synopsis...
Mid-level flow will remain strong and largely zonal over the
southern US Day 3/Friday. A pronounced shortwave trough will move
eastward toward the Atlantic Coast as subtropical ridging slowly
builds over the Gulf Coast. A second low-amplitude trough over the
Southwest will eject eastward and move into the Southeast early
Saturday. A deep surface low associated with the first trough will
occlude over the Great Lakes as its associated cold front continues
to surge eastward across the upper OH valley. Trailing portions of
the front will begin to stall across the Southeast and lower MS
Valley Friday evening.

...Lower MS Valley and Gulf Coast States...
To the south of the strong southwesterly flow aloft, gradual
moistening of the low-level air mass is likely Friday and Friday
night along and south of the stalled front. While deep-layer ascent
will be limited along the anticyclonic curved portion of the strong
subtropical jet through much of the day, the approach of the
secondary upper trough may support increased ascent late.

As mid/upper forcing for ascent moves eastward, it is expected to
remain mostly to the cool side of the front. Some potential for
stronger thunderstorm development seems likely to become focused
along or just to the cool side of the frontal zone late Friday night
into early Saturday. Low/mid-level lapse rates and buoyancy appear
generally weak despite strong flow aloft. Model guidance also varies
significantly on destabilization and moistening near the front.
This, along with the late arrival of the stronger forcing suggests
that while some stronger elevated storms are possible near the
front, the risk is too conditional to introduce probabilities.

...Upper OH Valley...
As the surface low occludes, a strong cold front associated with the
advancing upper trough will surge through portions of eastern OH and
PA. A shallow line of weak convection is possible along the front
owing to weak low-level moisture advection and strong ascent tied to
the front. Largely devoid of meaningful buoyancy, little to no
lightning is expected. Whoever, the presence of 100+ kt of mid-level
flow could allow mixing of a few stronger wind gusts to the surface
through the morning Friday. Minimal buoyancy and the lack of more
robust moisture will preclude any severe probabilities.

..Lyons.. 02/18/2026

$$

The "Convective Outlooks" issued by SPC can be thought of as a detailed discussion of the Severe Thunderstorm threat and it's associated risks nationwide. Risk levels range from Marginal to Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High and are issued based on the likelihood of 3 major severe weather threats; the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. These discussions are often heavily laced meteorological terminology that may be difficult to understand without a background in the field. However understanding these discussions shouldn't be thought of as necessary. Instead, should DuPage county fall under one of these threat levels for severe weather, the response should be to have a heightened level of awareness about the deveoloping weather. Keep an eye on the "Watch County Notification" for any active severe weather watches issued for DuPage county; the "Hazardous Weather Outlook" and "Severe Weather Statement" can also be helpful in explaining the developing risk; additionally, watch for "Active Weather Warnings" and keep an eye on our "Regional Satellite and Radar" products which can be viewed with active watches/warnings or lightning activity.

Special Weather Statement

See Product Description

178
WWUS83 KLOT 190008
RFWLOT

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Chicago IL
608 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-190115-
/O.CAN.KLOT.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-260219T0200Z/
Winnebago-Boone-McHenry-Lake IL-Ogle-Lee-De Kalb-Kane-DuPage-Cook-
La Salle-Kendall-Grundy-Will-Kankakee-Livingston-Iroquois-Ford-
608 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

Gusty winds have quickly eased with sunset early this evening.
Accordingly, the National Weather Service in Chicago has cancelled
the Red Flag Warning.

$$

The "Special Weather Statement" details notable weather either occuring or expected to occur, but does not necessarily have to be considered severe or hazardous. This is a supplementary product issued by the National Weather Service to help describe noteworthy weather. It's terminology should be reasonably easy to understand by the general public.

Watch County Notification

See Product Description

No active Watch County Notification for DuPage County.

The "Watch County Notification" will contain updates regarding active severe weather watches that pertain to DuPage county. This may be for a newly issued watch, or the cancelation of an existing watch. Severe weather watches come in two forms; Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado, and it should be noted that a Severe Thunderstorm Watch does NOT rule out the possibility of tornadoes occuring. It generally means that the tornado threat is minimal while damaging winds and hail are still likely. See our "Watch, Warning, and Advisory Criteria" for more detailed information on the differences and critera for watches, warnings and advisory for all forms of weather.

Winter Weather Statement

See Product Description

No active Winter Weather Statement for DuPage County.

The "Winter Weather Statement" is a product aimed at the general public that will discuss impacts caused by winter weather. This may include information about watches, warnings and advisories as well as details about impactful winter weather that may not warrant the issuance of a watch, warning or advisory.

Severe Weather Statement

See Product Description

No active Severe Weather Statement for DuPage County.

The "Severe Weather Statement" is a product aimed at the general public that will discuss impacts caused by severe thunderstorms. This may include information about watches and warnings as well as details about impactful "sub-severe" weather that may not warrant the issuance of a watch or warning which sometimes may come when a watch or warning has been canceled.

Non-Precip Statement

See Product Description

No active Non-Precip Statement for DuPage County.

The "Non-Precip Statement" is aimed at the general public and will detail notable weather that is either occuring or expected to occur, but does not relate to any form of precipitation. These would include but are not limited to high winds, reduced visibility or extreme temperatures.

Active Weather Warnings

Tornado Warnings

No active Tornado Warnings.

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings

No active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings.

Flood Warnings

No active Flood Warnings.

General Tornado/Severe Weather Safety

1. A Tornado or Severe Thunderstorm Warning is issued when it has been reported, or when it has been detected via National Weather Service radar. It is to be interpreted that this event is occuring and is expected to affect all warned areas. Those within the warning need to take action immediately.
2. If under a warning remain calm and if it is necessary to seek shelter. Students and Employees should head to their nearest designated shelter area. The route to these shelter areas are posted in all rooms on campus and signs are placed in the hallways to direct you to the nearest shelter area. Review these instructions and be familiar with where your nearest shelter is. Stay indoors, away from windows and large unsupported ceilings. Faculty should account for their students and Supervisors should account for their areas employees.
3. If outside, take shelter in the nearest building.
4. After the storm has passed, dial Police at 911 to report any injuries or damage to buildings.
5. If the building is severely damaged, evacuate the building as soon as possible after the storm has passed.