SPC Convective Outlook Day 1

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129
ACUS01 KWNS 071958
SWODY1
SPC AC 071956

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CST Fri Nov 07 2025

Valid 072000Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon
through the evening across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.
A few marginally severe storms could also develop in the central
Gulf Coast states late this afternoon into the overnight period.

...20z Update...

Visible satellite shows a gradual uptick in convective development
along the primary front, stretching from south-central Indiana
southwestward into far southern Illinois and Bootheel of Missouri.
Localized clearing has been evident in this region the last few
hours, aiding in destabilization ahead of the front in tandem with
cooling mid-level temperatures aloft in association with the
advancing upper-trough. Scattered storms are expected to develop in
the next few hours in this region and eventually pose a risk for
marginally severe wind/hail, particularly as storms begin to mature
and approach the Marginal Risk area across western Tennessee and
vicinity by early evening.

As this activity spreads east, the potential for severe storms
remains possible for the remainder of the evening, mainly across
middle Tennessee and south-central Kentucky. Therefore, the ongoing
forecast appears on track with no adjustments made to hazard
probabilities. Some uncertainty remains on eventual storm modes that
materialize and the potential for convection to remain organized and
persist east and south of the Slight Risk area. A few of the recent
CAM solutions are suggestive of downstream organization, and this
may need to be reexamined at 01z.

..Karstens/Moore.. 11/07/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Fri Nov 07 2025/

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level shortwave
trough over eastern NE/KS moving into southwest IA/MO. This upper
feature will move into the OH Valley by mid evening and the central
Appalachians by 08/12 UTC. Surface analysis indicates a cold front
over the middle MS Valley. The front will sweep east-southeast
across the OH/TN Valleys before reaching the Mid-Atlantic states and
northern portions of the central Gulf Coast states by early morning
Saturday.

...TN Valley into the southern Appalachians...
South-southwesterly low-level flow will act to gradually advect
richer moisture poleward within the warm conveyor and feature
surface dewpoints rising into the 56-58 deg F range across KY and
near 60 deg F across Middle TN by late afternoon. Perhaps equally
consequential will be mid-level cold-air advection with 500-mb
temperatures forecast to significantly cool (e.g., -12 deg C at 12
UTC per the Nashville, TN 12 UTC raob to -16 to -17 deg C by 00
UTC). As a result, weak destabilization is forecast with MLCAPE
ranging from 200-500 J/kg over KY to 500-1000 J/kg across the TN
Valley. Model guidance continues to show scattered cellular storms
developing late this afternoon initially over the KY/TN border
vicinity, with storms developing farther south near the AL/TN border
during the evening. Forecast hodographs will support organized
storms with the stronger updrafts, including the possibility for a
few supercells. A tornado risk, in addition to the threat for
damaging gusts and perhaps marginally severe hail may accompany the
stronger storms. A mix of linear storm modes and supercells are
expected through the early to mid evening as this activity moves
east. Storms and the severe risk will probably lessen over the
southern Appalachians before diminishing overnight.

...Central Gulf Coast...
Greater low-level moisture is anticipated farther south across this
region. However, overall forcing for ascent, both synoptically and
along the front, will be weaker and mid-level temperature
considerably warmer. The primary forcing across this region will
likely be warm-air advection, which leads to greater uncertainty
regarding convective initiation, particularly given the cloud cover
expected. If an updraft is able to mature and persist, there will
likely be enough low-level helicity to support a limited tornado
risk.

$$

The "Convective Outlooks" issued by SPC can be thought of as a detailed discussion of the Severe Thunderstorm threat and it's associated risks nationwide. Risk levels range from Marginal to Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High and are issued based on the likelihood of 3 major severe weather threats; the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. These discussions are often heavily laced meteorological terminology that may be difficult to understand without a background in the field. However understanding these discussions shouldn't be thought of as necessary. Instead, should DuPage county fall under one of these threat levels for severe weather, the response should be to have a heightened level of awareness about the deveoloping weather. Keep an eye on the "Watch County Notification" for any active severe weather watches issued for DuPage county; the "Hazardous Weather Outlook" and "Severe Weather Statement" can also be helpful in explaining the developing risk; additionally, watch for "Active Weather Warnings" and keep an eye on our "Regional Satellite and Radar" products which can be viewed with active watches/warnings or lightning activity.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

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825
FLUS43 KLOT 070845
HWOLOT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL
245 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

ILZ003>006-008-010>013-019>021-023-032-033-039-103>108-INZ001-002-
010-011-019-080845-
Winnebago-Boone-McHenry-Lake IL-Ogle-Lee-De Kalb-Kane-DuPage-
La Salle-Kendall-Grundy-Kankakee-Livingston-Iroquois-Ford-
Northern Cook-Central Cook-Southern Cook-Northern Will-
Southern Will-Eastern Will-Lake IN-Porter-Newton-Jasper-Benton-
245 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025 /345 AM EST Fri Nov 7 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Sunday through Monday night...
Limited Snow Risk near Lake Michigan.


DISCUSSION...

Periods of lake effect snow may lead to localized impactful snow
accumulations near Lake Michigan Sunday and Monday, especially in
northwestern Indiana.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be necessary through tonight.

$$

LMZ740>745-080845-
Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL-
Wilmette Harbor to Northerly Island IL-
Northerly Island to Calumet Harbor IL-
Calumet Harbor IL to Gary IN-Gary to Burns Harbor IN-
Burns Harbor to Michigan City IN-
245 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Illinois
nearshore waters of Lake Michigan and the Indiana nearshore
waters of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

Hazardous conditions for small craft.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Saturday night through Monday...
Gale force winds and very hazardous waves are possible.
Tuesday through Thursday...
Hazardous conditions for small craft are likely, and a period
of Gale Force Winds are possible.

$$

Borchardt

Visit us at www.weather.gov/chicago

The "Hazardous Weather Outlook" contains information regarding any and all weather expected to occur within the region that could be hazardous to travel, life or property. This is one of our most highly recommended products to check on a daily basis, and it some cases multiple times per day should significant weather be expected to affect DuPage county.

SPC Convective Outlook Day 2

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931
ACUS02 KWNS 071723
SWODY2
SPC AC 071722

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 AM CST Fri Nov 07 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast on Saturday or Saturday night.

...Synopsis...
A large-scale trough with multiple embedded shortwave troughs will
persist across the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS for much of the
period. At the surface, a stalled frontal boundary will extend from
the North Carolina coast to northeast Texas.

...Portions of the Southeast...
Weak to moderate instability will develop south of a stalled frontal
zone across the Southeast on Saturday. Mostly neutral mid-level
height tendencies and weak convergence along the front will likely
limit overall storm coverage. In addition, relatively warm
temperatures around 700mb will limit updraft strength in an
otherwise favorable deep-layer shear environment. The stronger
upper-level forcing does not appear to arrive until after 06Z, at
which time instability will also remain limited. Therefore, a few
stronger storms capable of small hail are possible, but the overall
severe weather threat appears limited during the Day 2 period.

..Bentley.. 11/07/2025

$$

The "Convective Outlooks" issued by SPC can be thought of as a detailed discussion of the Severe Thunderstorm threat and it's associated risks nationwide. Risk levels range from Marginal to Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High and are issued based on the likelihood of 3 major severe weather threats; the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. These discussions are often heavily laced meteorological terminology that may be difficult to understand without a background in the field. However understanding these discussions shouldn't be thought of as necessary. Instead, should DuPage county fall under one of these threat levels for severe weather, the response should be to have a heightened level of awareness about the deveoloping weather. Keep an eye on the "Watch County Notification" for any active severe weather watches issued for DuPage county; the "Hazardous Weather Outlook" and "Severe Weather Statement" can also be helpful in explaining the developing risk; additionally, watch for "Active Weather Warnings" and keep an eye on our "Regional Satellite and Radar" products which can be viewed with active watches/warnings or lightning activity.

SPC Convective Outlook Day 3

See Product Description

973
ACUS03 KWNS 071911
SWODY3
SPC AC 071910

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0110 PM CST Fri Nov 07 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
FLORIDA TO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday midday into
early evening along the South Atlantic Coastal Plain from north
Florida to far southeast Virginia.

...Synopsis...
A very strong, amplifying mid-level trough will become a closed low
across the western Great Lakes with a strong mid-level jet extending
from the Plains to the Gulf Coast and into the Northeast. A surface
low will move from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic. A cold front
will tighten as it moves east of the Appalachians and eventually
into the western Atlantic.

...Southeast into the Eastern Carolinas and far southeast
Virginia...
Weak to potentially moderate instability will develop from north
Florida to southeast Virginia in advance of an eastward-moving cold
front. Storms are expected along and ahead of this front as it moves
east. Moderately steep lapse rates and steep low-level lapse rates
may support damaging wind gusts during the afternoon/evening.
Greater instability across southeast Georgia and eastern South
Carolina may support a more concentrated zone of stronger storms. In
addition, moderate shear will support the potential for a few
supercells. While a Slight Risk may be needed across this area,
storm intensity (due to only modest instability) uncertainties
preclude an upgrade at this time.

..Bentley.. 11/07/2025

$$

The "Convective Outlooks" issued by SPC can be thought of as a detailed discussion of the Severe Thunderstorm threat and it's associated risks nationwide. Risk levels range from Marginal to Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High and are issued based on the likelihood of 3 major severe weather threats; the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. These discussions are often heavily laced meteorological terminology that may be difficult to understand without a background in the field. However understanding these discussions shouldn't be thought of as necessary. Instead, should DuPage county fall under one of these threat levels for severe weather, the response should be to have a heightened level of awareness about the deveoloping weather. Keep an eye on the "Watch County Notification" for any active severe weather watches issued for DuPage county; the "Hazardous Weather Outlook" and "Severe Weather Statement" can also be helpful in explaining the developing risk; additionally, watch for "Active Weather Warnings" and keep an eye on our "Regional Satellite and Radar" products which can be viewed with active watches/warnings or lightning activity.

Special Weather Statement

See Product Description

No active Special Weather Statement for DuPage County.

The "Special Weather Statement" details notable weather either occuring or expected to occur, but does not necessarily have to be considered severe or hazardous. This is a supplementary product issued by the National Weather Service to help describe noteworthy weather. It's terminology should be reasonably easy to understand by the general public.

Watch County Notification

See Product Description

No active Watch County Notification for DuPage County.

The "Watch County Notification" will contain updates regarding active severe weather watches that pertain to DuPage county. This may be for a newly issued watch, or the cancelation of an existing watch. Severe weather watches come in two forms; Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado, and it should be noted that a Severe Thunderstorm Watch does NOT rule out the possibility of tornadoes occuring. It generally means that the tornado threat is minimal while damaging winds and hail are still likely. See our "Watch, Warning, and Advisory Criteria" for more detailed information on the differences and critera for watches, warnings and advisory for all forms of weather.

Winter Weather Statement

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No active Winter Weather Statement for DuPage County.

The "Winter Weather Statement" is a product aimed at the general public that will discuss impacts caused by winter weather. This may include information about watches, warnings and advisories as well as details about impactful winter weather that may not warrant the issuance of a watch, warning or advisory.

Severe Weather Statement

See Product Description

No active Severe Weather Statement for DuPage County.

The "Severe Weather Statement" is a product aimed at the general public that will discuss impacts caused by severe thunderstorms. This may include information about watches and warnings as well as details about impactful "sub-severe" weather that may not warrant the issuance of a watch or warning which sometimes may come when a watch or warning has been canceled.

Non-Precip Statement

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No active Non-Precip Statement for DuPage County.

The "Non-Precip Statement" is aimed at the general public and will detail notable weather that is either occuring or expected to occur, but does not relate to any form of precipitation. These would include but are not limited to high winds, reduced visibility or extreme temperatures.

Active Weather Warnings

Tornado Warnings

No active Tornado Warnings.

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings

No active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings.

Flood Warnings

No active Flood Warnings.

General Tornado/Severe Weather Safety

1. A Tornado or Severe Thunderstorm Warning is issued when it has been reported, or when it has been detected via National Weather Service radar. It is to be interpreted that this event is occuring and is expected to affect all warned areas. Those within the warning need to take action immediately.
2. If under a warning remain calm and if it is necessary to seek shelter. Students and Employees should head to their nearest designated shelter area. The route to these shelter areas are posted in all rooms on campus and signs are placed in the hallways to direct you to the nearest shelter area. Review these instructions and be familiar with where your nearest shelter is. Stay indoors, away from windows and large unsupported ceilings. Faculty should account for their students and Supervisors should account for their areas employees.
3. If outside, take shelter in the nearest building.
4. After the storm has passed, dial Police at 911 to report any injuries or damage to buildings.
5. If the building is severely damaged, evacuate the building as soon as possible after the storm has passed.