SPC Convective Outlook Day 1

See Product Description

119
ACUS01 KWNS 251644
SWODY1
SPC AC 251643

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025

Valid 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-SOUTH/TENNESSEE VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms, including the risk for very large hail, swaths
of severe winds with isolated 75+ mph gusts, and a few tornadoes,
are expected across parts of the southern Plains this afternoon and
evening, including northwest Texas and southern/central Oklahoma.
Scattered severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds
will also be a concern across the Mid-South, Tennessee Valley, and
other parts of the Southeast.

...Arkansas/Mid-South to Tennessee Valley/Southeast...
A rather complex scenario exists regionally owing to yesterday's MCS
and its impacts in addition to renewed MCS development overnight
across the Ozarks. That said, air mass recovery and boundary layer
destabilization is well underway along the
west/northwest-east/southeast-oriented outflow-reinforced baroclinic
zone across the region. Multi-MCV-related enhancement to the flow
field is also evident across the Ozarks, and this should translate
downstream (east-southeasterly) toward the Mid-South and eventually
Tennessee Valley.

This scenario appears favorable for one or more well-organized
east/southeastward-moving clusters/bowing line segments to evolve
later this afternoon into evening. Damaging winds can be expected,
with occasional large hail as well. Portions of the region have been
upgraded to an Enhanced Risk for this potential.

...Southern High Plains to Oklahoma/North Texas/ArkLaTex...
A low-amplitude mid-level shortwave trough over northern Mexico this
morning will move northeastward across the southern High Plains by
this afternoon/evening. Ahead of this feature, ample daytime heating
will likely aid in the development of moderate to strong instability
by mid afternoon amid a moist low-level airmass. A surface front
will extend from eastern New Mexico across northwest Texas and the
southern Texas Panhandle into parts of western/central Oklahoma,
with a dryline extending southward from the front across west Texas.
Both of these surface boundaries will likely prove instrumental, in
combination with modest large-scale ascent associated with the
shortwave trough, to focus intense thunderstorm development later
today. While mid/upper-level winds are not expected to be overly
strong, veering and gradual strengthening with height should support
around 30-45 kt of deep-layer shear. Stronger shear is forecast near
the front. Convective temperatures will likely be reached by 20-22Z,
and explosive thunderstorm development is expected in this time
frame across west/northwest Texas along the front and dryline.

A mix of supercells and clusters will likely form and spread
east-northeastward through the late afternoon and early evening.
Very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) will be possible with any
initial supercells given favorably steep mid-level lapse rates and
relatively long/straight hodographs at mid/upper levels. By early
evening, consolidation into a bowing complex appears likely across
northwest Texas and southern Oklahoma. An increasing threat for
scattered to numerous severe winds will exist with this cluster as
it develops generally east-southeastward ward into western north
Texas and southern Oklahoma through the evening.

Given steepened low-level lapse rates and the presence of strong to
locally extreme instability, some wind gusts of 75+ mph appear
possible with the bowing cluster. The potential for supercells to
develop separately farther east along the front in western/central
Oklahoma still remains unclear. If thunderstorms can form here, they
would likely become severe quickly, and pose a threat for very large
hail. Some risk for a few tornadoes may also exist this evening,
either embedded with the bow or with semi-discrete supercells, as a
southerly low-level jet and related 0-1 km SRH gradually
strengthens. A continued threat for severe/damaging winds may
continue into the overnight hours across north Texas.

...Eastern New Mexico...
A somewhat separate area of at least isolated supercell potential is
evident across northeast to east-central New Mexico this afternoon
in a modest low-level upslope flow regime along and north of the
front. Large hail should be the main threat with this activity. The
eastward extent of the severe threat will likely be confined by
weaker instability into the Oklahoma Panhandle and northern Texas
Panhandle.

...Colorado Front Range...
As clouds abate/thin, a relatively isolated/focused severe threat
will again exist near the foothills/urban corridor of east-central
Colorado later this afternoon.

...Florida...
Compared to the prior couple of days, mid/upper-level winds appear
somewhat weaker across the Florida Peninsula today, while mid-level
temperatures are also slightly warmer per regionally observed 12Z
soundings. Even so, another day of scattered thunderstorm
development is anticipated over much of the Florida Peninsula, with
various sea breezes acting as foci for initiation. Moderate
instability coupled with modest deep-layer shear may still support
an isolated threat for marginally severe hail and gusty winds with
the stronger cores that can develop this afternoon.

..Guyer/Lyons.. 05/25/2025

$$

The "Convective Outlooks" issued by SPC can be thought of as a detailed discussion of the Severe Thunderstorm threat and it's associated risks nationwide. Risk levels range from Marginal to Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High and are issued based on the likelihood of 3 major severe weather threats; the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. These discussions are often heavily laced meteorological terminology that may be difficult to understand without a background in the field. However understanding these discussions shouldn't be thought of as necessary. Instead, should DuPage county fall under one of these threat levels for severe weather, the response should be to have a heightened level of awareness about the deveoloping weather. Keep an eye on the "Watch County Notification" for any active severe weather watches issued for DuPage county; the "Hazardous Weather Outlook" and "Severe Weather Statement" can also be helpful in explaining the developing risk; additionally, watch for "Active Weather Warnings" and keep an eye on our "Regional Satellite and Radar" products which can be viewed with active watches/warnings or lightning activity.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

See Product Description

146
FLUS43 KLOT 251604
HWOLOT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL
1104 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025

ILZ003>006-008-010>013-019>021-023-032-033-039-103>108-INZ001-002-
010-011-019-261615-
Winnebago-Boone-McHenry-Lake IL-Ogle-Lee-De Kalb-Kane-DuPage-
La Salle-Kendall-Grundy-Kankakee-Livingston-Iroquois-Ford-
Northern Cook-Central Cook-Southern Cook-Northern Will-
Southern Will-Eastern Will-Lake IN-Porter-Newton-Jasper-Benton-
1104 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 /1204 PM EDT Sun May 25 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Tuesday...
Limited Thunderstorm Risk.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be necessary through tonight.

$$

LMZ740>745-261615-
Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL-
Wilmette Harbor to Northerly Island IL-
Northerly Island to Calumet Harbor IL-
Calumet Harbor IL to Gary IN-Gary to Burns Harbor IN-
Burns Harbor to Michigan City IN-
1104 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Illinois
nearshore waters of Lake Michigan and the Indiana nearshore
waters of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Tuesday...
Limited Thunderstorm Risk.

$$

Yack

Visit us at www.weather.gov/chicago

The "Hazardous Weather Outlook" contains information regarding any and all weather expected to occur within the region that could be hazardous to travel, life or property. This is one of our most highly recommended products to check on a daily basis, and it some cases multiple times per day should significant weather be expected to affect DuPage county.

SPC Convective Outlook Day 2

See Product Description

387
ACUS02 KWNS 251733
SWODY2
SPC AC 251732

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MUCH OF
CENTRAL TEXAS INTO PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are expected Monday from west-central Texas eastward
into Arkansas and Louisiana. Areas of large hail will be possible
with the primary risk becoming damaging winds. Marginally severe
storms will also be possible outside the Slight Risk area from the
southern Plains into the Southeast.

...Synopsis...
Modest southwest flow aloft will persist over the southern Plains
and into the TN/OH Valleys on Monday, with embedded waves in
association with convective clusters throughout the period.

At the surface, high pressure will remain over the northern
Plains/Great Lakes/Northeast, with a large-scale boundary roughly
from northern TX into SC. Substantial moisture will remain south of
the front, with episodes of thunderstorms producing primarily strong
to damaging gusts.

...From eastern TX into LA/MS/AL - Daytime...
Models indicate that early day convection, possibly with wind
potential, will affect much of eastern TX into southern AR and
northern LA, and move into MS during the day. Substantial moisture
and instability will remain across the region ahead of any such
system, suggesting a wind threat. If the early day storms diminish,
outflows may still serve as a focal point for afternoon development.
Additional warm sector activity may develop eastward into AL and GA
as well, where shear will be weak but CAPE sufficient for locally
severe gusts or marginal hail.

...West-central into central and southeast TX...
Strong instability will redevelop across the region in the wake of
the early activity over much of eastern TX. Cool midlevel
temperatures with -10 to -12 C at 500 mb combined with upper 60s+
dewpoints will lead to strong instability. The nose of the low-level
lapse rate plume emanating out of southwest TX will be a primary
focus for supercell development, with very large hail and perhaps a
brief tornado possible. Near or just east of the lapse rate plume
may be the composite front/outflow boundary, and a large convective
complex is forecast during the late afternoon and evening. Details
are inherently uncertain with these MCS tracks and antecedent
outflows, but in general, much of central into eastern TX should
experience strong to severe wind gusts.

...Eastern NM and CO...TX Panhandle...
Beneath the upper wave, cold temperatures aloft and daytime heating
over the high terrain will lead to an uncapped air mass along the
Front Range and extending south across most of eastern NM. Easterly
upslope flow combined with weak westerlies aloft may be sufficient
for scattered cells producing marginal hail. Clustering of storms
with aggregate outflows may stretch into the OK/TX Panhandles late,
with marginal wind and hail risk.

..Jewell.. 05/25/2025

$$

The "Convective Outlooks" issued by SPC can be thought of as a detailed discussion of the Severe Thunderstorm threat and it's associated risks nationwide. Risk levels range from Marginal to Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High and are issued based on the likelihood of 3 major severe weather threats; the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. These discussions are often heavily laced meteorological terminology that may be difficult to understand without a background in the field. However understanding these discussions shouldn't be thought of as necessary. Instead, should DuPage county fall under one of these threat levels for severe weather, the response should be to have a heightened level of awareness about the deveoloping weather. Keep an eye on the "Watch County Notification" for any active severe weather watches issued for DuPage county; the "Hazardous Weather Outlook" and "Severe Weather Statement" can also be helpful in explaining the developing risk; additionally, watch for "Active Weather Warnings" and keep an eye on our "Regional Satellite and Radar" products which can be viewed with active watches/warnings or lightning activity.

SPC Convective Outlook Day 3

See Product Description

818
ACUS03 KWNS 250719
SWODY3
SPC AC 250718

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
A marginal severe threat is expected on Tuesday from parts of the
southern Plains eastward into the Southeast.

...Southern Plains...
A mid-level trough will move from the southern Plains eastward into
the Ozarks on Tuesday, as flow remains primary from a westerly
direction over much of the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold
front is forecast to move southward across the Texas Hill Country,
with the boundary extending eastward into the lower Mississippi
Valley. To the south of this boundary, surface dewpoints in the
upper 60s to mid 70s F will contribute to moderate instability by
afternoon. The boundary will be a focus for convective initiation.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the
afternoon and move east-southeastward across this moist airmass.
Although deep-layer shear over much of the southern Plains is
forecast to be in the 25 to 35 knot range, an isolated severe threat
could develop in areas that heat up the most. Model forecasts
suggest that the MLCAPE could peak around 4000 J/kg across part of
the Texas Hill Country by mid to late afternoon. If this were to
occur, then some of the cells could exhibit rotation near or within
the instability maximum. An isolated threat for hail and severe
gusts would be possible.

...Southeast...
A mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Ozarks on
Tuesday, as flow ahead of the trough remains west-southwesterly. At
the surface, a moist airmass will likely be in place across parts of
the Southeast by afternoon. The greatest instability is forecast to
the south of a front across the central Gulf Coast, where surface
dewpoints should be in the lower to mid 70s F. Model forecasts
across the central Gulf Coast suggest that MLCAPE could peak in the
2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be
relatively weak, low-level lapse rates should become steep as
surface heating takes place during the mid to late afternoon.
Multicells that develop near focused corridors of low-level
convergence could have potential for marginally severe wind gusts
and hail.

..Broyles.. 05/25/2025

$$

The "Convective Outlooks" issued by SPC can be thought of as a detailed discussion of the Severe Thunderstorm threat and it's associated risks nationwide. Risk levels range from Marginal to Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High and are issued based on the likelihood of 3 major severe weather threats; the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. These discussions are often heavily laced meteorological terminology that may be difficult to understand without a background in the field. However understanding these discussions shouldn't be thought of as necessary. Instead, should DuPage county fall under one of these threat levels for severe weather, the response should be to have a heightened level of awareness about the deveoloping weather. Keep an eye on the "Watch County Notification" for any active severe weather watches issued for DuPage county; the "Hazardous Weather Outlook" and "Severe Weather Statement" can also be helpful in explaining the developing risk; additionally, watch for "Active Weather Warnings" and keep an eye on our "Regional Satellite and Radar" products which can be viewed with active watches/warnings or lightning activity.

Special Weather Statement

See Product Description

No active Special Weather Statement for DuPage County.

The "Special Weather Statement" details notable weather either occuring or expected to occur, but does not necessarily have to be considered severe or hazardous. This is a supplementary product issued by the National Weather Service to help describe noteworthy weather. It's terminology should be reasonably easy to understand by the general public.

Watch County Notification

See Product Description

No active Watch County Notification for DuPage County.

The "Watch County Notification" will contain updates regarding active severe weather watches that pertain to DuPage county. This may be for a newly issued watch, or the cancelation of an existing watch. Severe weather watches come in two forms; Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado, and it should be noted that a Severe Thunderstorm Watch does NOT rule out the possibility of tornadoes occuring. It generally means that the tornado threat is minimal while damaging winds and hail are still likely. See our "Watch, Warning, and Advisory Criteria" for more detailed information on the differences and critera for watches, warnings and advisory for all forms of weather.

Winter Weather Statement

See Product Description

No active Winter Weather Statement for DuPage County.

The "Winter Weather Statement" is a product aimed at the general public that will discuss impacts caused by winter weather. This may include information about watches, warnings and advisories as well as details about impactful winter weather that may not warrant the issuance of a watch, warning or advisory.

Severe Weather Statement

See Product Description

No active Severe Weather Statement for DuPage County.

The "Severe Weather Statement" is a product aimed at the general public that will discuss impacts caused by severe thunderstorms. This may include information about watches and warnings as well as details about impactful "sub-severe" weather that may not warrant the issuance of a watch or warning which sometimes may come when a watch or warning has been canceled.

Non-Precip Statement

See Product Description

No active Non-Precip Statement for DuPage County.

The "Non-Precip Statement" is aimed at the general public and will detail notable weather that is either occuring or expected to occur, but does not relate to any form of precipitation. These would include but are not limited to high winds, reduced visibility or extreme temperatures.

Active Weather Warnings

Tornado Warnings

No active Tornado Warnings.

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings

No active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings.

Flood Warnings

No active Flood Warnings.

General Tornado/Severe Weather Safety

1. A Tornado or Severe Thunderstorm Warning is issued when it has been reported, or when it has been detected via National Weather Service radar. It is to be interpreted that this event is occuring and is expected to affect all warned areas. Those within the warning need to take action immediately.
2. If under a warning remain calm and if it is necessary to seek shelter. Students and Employees should head to their nearest designated shelter area. The route to these shelter areas are posted in all rooms on campus and signs are placed in the hallways to direct you to the nearest shelter area. Review these instructions and be familiar with where your nearest shelter is. Stay indoors, away from windows and large unsupported ceilings. Faculty should account for their students and Supervisors should account for their areas employees.
3. If outside, take shelter in the nearest building.
4. After the storm has passed, dial Police at 911 to report any injuries or damage to buildings.
5. If the building is severely damaged, evacuate the building as soon as possible after the storm has passed.