SPC Convective Outlook Day 1

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145
ACUS01 KWNS 050600
SWODY1
SPC AC 050558

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 PM CST Wed Mar 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are expected from northwest Texas and the
Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Large
hail, a few tornadoes and damaging winds will all be possible within
this corridor.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will move across the Great Basin and toward the
Rockies, with increasing southwest flow aloft spreading over the
Plains. At the surface, low pressure will develop over eastern CO
during the day, and will move into KS through Friday morning. A
stationary front extending from northwest TX into southern MO will
become a warm front as southerly surface winds increase throughout
the period. Low 60s F dewpoints will move across OK and into the
eastern TX Panhandle during the day, and along I-35 into KS
overnight. Moderate instability is expected to develop from western
TX into OK and southern KS, with increasing shear profiles late in
the day. This will likely lead to a compact area of severe storms,
particularly from the TX Panhandle/South Plains into western OK late
in the day and into the evening.

...TX Panhandle/northwest TX into western OK and southern KS...
Moisture and instability will gradually build during the day as the
warm front pushes through during the afternoon. There is some
concern about the degree of capping, especially across eastern
areas. However, it appears heating will be sufficient to instigate a
few supercells, developing by late afternoon across the eastern TX
Panhandle and perhaps portions of the South Plains or northwest TX.
Steep lapse rates aloft along with veering winds with height will
clearly support supercell mode initially, with very large hail and
tornado potential. These cells, or a developing cluster, will likely
continue into the evening across much of western OK and perhaps
toward southern KS by late evening. By that time, shear will be
quite strong, and may support significant bowing structures.

...Northern KS...NE...IA...
After dry conditions for much of the day, thunderstorms will develop
overnight as low-level theta-e rapidly spreads north due to a 60 kt
low-level jet. Forecast soundings indicate substantial elevated CAPE
developing after 03Z, north of a warm front. Deep-layer shear within
the cloud-bearing layer also appears favorable for sustained cells,
and a few storms could produce hail.

...Western FL Peninsula...
Beneath an upper high and within an easterly low-level flow regime,
strong heating will occur, with dewpoints dropping into the mid 60s
F. Despite the upper high, midlevel temperatures will be relatively
cool. Scattered storms appear probable along the western Peninsula
during the afternoon where convergence will be maximized. Locally
strong wind gusts will be possible, though severe storms are not
currently forecast.

..Jewell/Chalmers.. 03/05/2026

$$

The "Convective Outlooks" issued by SPC can be thought of as a detailed discussion of the Severe Thunderstorm threat and it's associated risks nationwide. Risk levels range from Marginal to Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High and are issued based on the likelihood of 3 major severe weather threats; the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. These discussions are often heavily laced meteorological terminology that may be difficult to understand without a background in the field. However understanding these discussions shouldn't be thought of as necessary. Instead, should DuPage county fall under one of these threat levels for severe weather, the response should be to have a heightened level of awareness about the deveoloping weather. Keep an eye on the "Watch County Notification" for any active severe weather watches issued for DuPage county; the "Hazardous Weather Outlook" and "Severe Weather Statement" can also be helpful in explaining the developing risk; additionally, watch for "Active Weather Warnings" and keep an eye on our "Regional Satellite and Radar" products which can be viewed with active watches/warnings or lightning activity.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

See Product Description

623
FLUS43 KLOT 050953
HWOLOT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL
353 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

ILZ003>006-008-010>013-019>021-023-032-033-039-103>108-INZ001-002-
010-011-019-061000-
Winnebago-Boone-McHenry-Lake IL-Ogle-Lee-De Kalb-Kane-DuPage-
La Salle-Kendall-Grundy-Kankakee-Livingston-Iroquois-Ford-
Northern Cook-Central Cook-Southern Cook-Northern Will-
Southern Will-Eastern Will-Lake IN-Porter-Newton-Jasper-Benton-
353 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026 /453 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

Significant Fog Risk.
Limited Thunderstorm Risk.

DISCUSSION...

Widespread dense fog is expected through this morning. Some
improvement in visibility may occur in the afternoon well inland
of Lake Michigan before increasing in coverage again this evening
and overnight.

A small cluster of showers is expected to move across the area
later this morning and may be capable of producing a lightning
strike or two.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Friday...
Elevated Fog Risk in the morning, especially near the lake.
Limited Thunderstorm Risk...with an associated:
Level 2 of 5 Severe Thunderstorm Risk.
Saturday morning...
Limited Thunderstorm Risk southeast of I-55.
Monday night and Tuesday...
Limited Thunderstorm Risk.

DISCUSSION...

A period of showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected Friday
morning and early afternoon, when any stronger thunderstorms may
be capable of producing hail. Additional scattered thunderstorms
are then expected to gradually push across the region late Friday
through early Saturday, some of which may be strong to severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be necessary through tonight.

GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY:

Moving toward the northeast at 35 mph.

$$

LMZ740>745-061000-
Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL-
Wilmette Harbor to Northerly Island IL-
Northerly Island to Calumet Harbor IL-
Calumet Harbor IL to Gary IN-Gary to Burns Harbor IN-
Burns Harbor to Michigan City IN-
353 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Illinois
nearshore waters of Lake Michigan and the Indiana nearshore
waters of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

Significant Fog Risk.
Limited Thunderstorm Risk.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Friday...
Significant Fog Risk.
Limited Thunderstorm Risk...with an associated:
Level 2 of 5 Severe Thunderstorm Risk.
Hazardous conditions for small craft are likely.
Saturday through Wednesday...
Hazardous conditions for small craft are likely.
Tuesday...
Limited Thunderstorm Risk.

$$

Petr

Visit us at www.weather.gov/chicago

The "Hazardous Weather Outlook" contains information regarding any and all weather expected to occur within the region that could be hazardous to travel, life or property. This is one of our most highly recommended products to check on a daily basis, and it some cases multiple times per day should significant weather be expected to affect DuPage county.

SPC Convective Outlook Day 2

See Product Description

776
ACUS02 KWNS 050715
SWODY2
SPC AC 050713

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 2
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI
VALLEY...

CORRECTED FOR TEXT

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from late afternoon
Friday through Friday night across parts of the central and southern
Plains northeastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. The
greatest potential for tornadoes, large to very large hail, and
damaging winds is across eastern parts of Kansas and Oklahoma into
western Missouri.

...Southern and Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley...
A strong upper-level system over the Desert Southwest, and an
associated jet streak will eject northeastward across the central
U.S. on Friday. At the surface, a moist airmass with surface
dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will spread northward from the
southern Plains into the eastern part of the central Plains and into
the lower Missouri Valley. As surface temperatures warm on Friday,
moderate instability will develop across most of the moist sector.
During the day, a cold front will advance southeastward into central
Kansas as a dryline sharpens over west-central Oklahoma. To the east
of these surface features, convective initiation is expected along a
north-to-south corridor from northeast Kansas south-southwestward
along the I-35 corridor into south-central Oklahoma. A significant
severe weather event appears likely across the southern and central
Plains into the lower Missouri Valley Friday afternoon and evening.
Additional more isolated storms are expected to form near the Red
River southward across north-central Texas into the Texas Hill
Country. These storms will move eastward toward the western Ozarks
and Ark-La-Tex during the evening.

A 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet will eject northeastward into the
central Plains on Friday. The latest forecasts from the ECMWF have
the jet coming through west-central Kansas positioned a bit further
southeast. This will be a favorable location for a severe weather
event across Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri. NAM forecast soundings
from Wichita to Oklahoma City in the late afternoon have 40 to 50
knots of 0-6 km shear with 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 8
C/km. In addition, strong low-level shear is forecast with curved
hodographs. This environment will be favorable for supercells with
tornadoes, large hail and damaging wind gusts. The more dominant
supercells should be capable of producing 2 inch diameter
hailstones. Hailstones around 3 inches in diameter will be possible
with the most intense supercells. In the early evening, 0-3 km
storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase into the 300 to 450
m2/s2 range, which will support a potential for strong tornadoes. As
storm coverage expands in the mid to late evening, a severe line
segment is expected to develop and move into the western Ozarks.
Tornadoes and severe wind gusts will be possible with rotating cells
embedded in the line and with bowing line segments.

Further south into north-central Texas and the Texas Hill Country, a
severe threat is expected during the afternoon and evening.
Large-scale forcing will be more limited which will keep the storms
more widely spaced. Forecast soundings in the late afternoon from
Dallas/Worth southward into the Texas Hill Country have MLCAPE
generally from 1500 to 2000 J/kg with 0-6km shear around 35 knots.
700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 7.5 C/km. This should
support supercells with potential for large to very large hail and
isolated severe wind gusts. The potential for tornadoes should be
greatest in north-central Texas, where low-level shear will be
stronger.

...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Southwestern Great Lakes...
An upper-level trough will eject northeastward across the central
U.S. on Friday afternoon and evening. Strong moisture advection will
take place ahead of the system from the mid to upper Mississippi
Valley into the southwestern Great Lakes. Surface heating during the
day will result in weak instability across much of the region with
scattered thunderstorms developing. Some of the cells could be
associated with an isolated severe threat. However, the greater
severe threat is expected to develop in the mid to late evening, as
an 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet moves into the region. With this
feature, strong large-scale ascent will likely result in multiple
organized line segments. The more intense components of these lines
should have a potential for severe wind gusts. An isolated tornado
threat will also be possible.

..Broyles.. 03/05/2026

$$

The "Convective Outlooks" issued by SPC can be thought of as a detailed discussion of the Severe Thunderstorm threat and it's associated risks nationwide. Risk levels range from Marginal to Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High and are issued based on the likelihood of 3 major severe weather threats; the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. These discussions are often heavily laced meteorological terminology that may be difficult to understand without a background in the field. However understanding these discussions shouldn't be thought of as necessary. Instead, should DuPage county fall under one of these threat levels for severe weather, the response should be to have a heightened level of awareness about the deveoloping weather. Keep an eye on the "Watch County Notification" for any active severe weather watches issued for DuPage county; the "Hazardous Weather Outlook" and "Severe Weather Statement" can also be helpful in explaining the developing risk; additionally, watch for "Active Weather Warnings" and keep an eye on our "Regional Satellite and Radar" products which can be viewed with active watches/warnings or lightning activity.

SPC Convective Outlook Day 3

See Product Description

937
ACUS03 KWNS 050829
SWODY3
SPC AC 050828

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN AND IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms will be possible on Saturday from the Texas Coastal
Plain into western Louisiana, and in the Ohio Valley/Lower Great
Lakes. Wind damage will be the primary threat, except in parts of
Texas where isolated large hail could also occur. A marginal severe
threat will also be possible across the Southeast and Tennessee
Valley.

...Texas Coastal Plain/Western Louisiana...
Mid-level west-southwesterly flow will be in place from the
south-central U.S. to the Eastern Seaboard on Saturday. At the
surface, a cold front will move southeastward into the Texas Coastal
Plains and Ark-La-Tex by afternoon. Surface dewpoints ahead of the
front will be in the 60s F, contributing to moderate instability by
midday. Thunderstorms are expected to form along the front early in
the day and steadily increase in coverage. A large complex of storms
is forecast to move southeastward across the Texas Coastal Plain and
the Sabine River Valley during the afternoon and evening. Model
forecasts suggest that 0-6 km shear will generally range from 30 to
35 knots, and that lapse rates will be steep in the low-levels. This
should be favorable for a wind-damage threat with intense line
segments that form ahead of the front. A few supercells with large
hail and wind damage may also develop further southwest into the
southern Texas Hill Country, where forecast soundings have stronger
deep-layer shear. During the evening, the severe threat should move
offshore from the middle and upper Texas into the Gulf.

...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys/Southern and Central Appalachians...
At mid-levels on Saturday, a shortwave trough will move eastward
across the north-central U.S., as an associated jet streak
translates through the Great Lakes. At the surface, a front will
advance eastward across the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Ahead
of the front, surface dewpoints will range from the 60s F in the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, to the 50s F in the southern and central
Appalachians. Weak instability is forecast to develop in most areas
ahead of the front by afternoon. Forecast soundings in the upper
Ohio Valley show very strong wind fields, with 30 to 40 knots of
southwesterly flow just above the surface. This will contribute to a
wind-damage threat with short line segments that form ahead of the
front in the afternoon. The greatest wind-damage threat will likely
be in the late afternoon as a low-level jet consolidates and
strengthens across the upper Ohio Valley.

..Broyles.. 03/05/2026

$$

The "Convective Outlooks" issued by SPC can be thought of as a detailed discussion of the Severe Thunderstorm threat and it's associated risks nationwide. Risk levels range from Marginal to Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High and are issued based on the likelihood of 3 major severe weather threats; the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. These discussions are often heavily laced meteorological terminology that may be difficult to understand without a background in the field. However understanding these discussions shouldn't be thought of as necessary. Instead, should DuPage county fall under one of these threat levels for severe weather, the response should be to have a heightened level of awareness about the deveoloping weather. Keep an eye on the "Watch County Notification" for any active severe weather watches issued for DuPage county; the "Hazardous Weather Outlook" and "Severe Weather Statement" can also be helpful in explaining the developing risk; additionally, watch for "Active Weather Warnings" and keep an eye on our "Regional Satellite and Radar" products which can be viewed with active watches/warnings or lightning activity.

Special Weather Statement

See Product Description

No active Special Weather Statement for DuPage County.

The "Special Weather Statement" details notable weather either occuring or expected to occur, but does not necessarily have to be considered severe or hazardous. This is a supplementary product issued by the National Weather Service to help describe noteworthy weather. It's terminology should be reasonably easy to understand by the general public.

Watch County Notification

See Product Description

No active Watch County Notification for DuPage County.

The "Watch County Notification" will contain updates regarding active severe weather watches that pertain to DuPage county. This may be for a newly issued watch, or the cancelation of an existing watch. Severe weather watches come in two forms; Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado, and it should be noted that a Severe Thunderstorm Watch does NOT rule out the possibility of tornadoes occuring. It generally means that the tornado threat is minimal while damaging winds and hail are still likely. See our "Watch, Warning, and Advisory Criteria" for more detailed information on the differences and critera for watches, warnings and advisory for all forms of weather.

Winter Weather Statement

See Product Description

No active Winter Weather Statement for DuPage County.

The "Winter Weather Statement" is a product aimed at the general public that will discuss impacts caused by winter weather. This may include information about watches, warnings and advisories as well as details about impactful winter weather that may not warrant the issuance of a watch, warning or advisory.

Severe Weather Statement

See Product Description

No active Severe Weather Statement for DuPage County.

The "Severe Weather Statement" is a product aimed at the general public that will discuss impacts caused by severe thunderstorms. This may include information about watches and warnings as well as details about impactful "sub-severe" weather that may not warrant the issuance of a watch or warning which sometimes may come when a watch or warning has been canceled.

Non-Precip Statement

See Product Description

714
WWUS73 KLOT 050720
NPWLOT

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Chicago IL
120 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

ILZ003-004-008-010-051730-
/O.EXA.KLOT.FG.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-260305T1800Z/
Winnebago-Boone-Ogle-Lee-
Including the cities of Rockford, Rochelle, Oregon, Belvidere,
Byron, and Dixon
120 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY...

* WHAT...Visibility of one quarter mile or less in dense fog
expected.

* WHERE...Boone, Lee, Ogle, and Winnebago Counties.

* WHEN...Until noon CST today.

* IMPACTS...Low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of
distance ahead of you.

&&

$$

ILZ005-011-012-019>021-023-106>108-051730-
/O.CON.KLOT.FG.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-260305T1800Z/
McHenry-De Kalb-Kane-La Salle-Kendall-Grundy-Kankakee-Northern
Will-Southern Will-Eastern Will-
Including the cities of Algonquin, Wilmington, Plainfield,
Oswego, Mendota, Joliet, Marseilles, Streator, Plano, Ottawa,
Coal City, Sycamore, Elgin, Bradley, Manhattan, Crystal Lake,
Beecher, Bolingbrook, Crete, McHenry, Bourbonnais, Aurora,
Morris, Kankakee, Mokena, Yorkville, DeKalb, La Salle, Channahon,
Woodstock, Peotone, and Minooka
120 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY...

* WHAT...Visibility of one quarter mile or less in dense fog
expected.

* WHERE...De Kalb, La Salle, Eastern Will, Grundy, Kane, Kankakee,
Kendall, McHenry, Northern Will, and Southern Will Counties.

* WHEN...Until noon CST today.

* IMPACTS...Low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of
distance ahead of you.

&&

$$

ILZ006-013-103>105-INZ001-002-051730-
/O.CON.KLOT.FG.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-260305T2100Z/
Lake IL-DuPage-Northern Cook-Central Cook-Southern Cook-Lake IN-
Porter-
Including the cities of Des Plaines, Buffalo Grove, Park Forest,
La Grange, Mundelein, Naperville, Valparaiso, Oak Forest, Lemont,
Oak Park, Calumet City, Lombard, Evanston, Orland Park, Gurnee,
Chesterton, Merrillville, Hammond, Portage, Palatine, Oak Lawn,
Downers Grove, Waukegan, Gary, Chicago, Cicero, Northbrook, Carol
Stream, Schaumburg, and Wheaton
120 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Visibility of one quarter mile or less in dense fog
expected.

* WHERE...In Illinois, Central Cook, DuPage, Lake IL, Northern Cook,
and Southern Cook Counties. In Indiana, Lake IN and Porter
Counties.

* WHEN...Until 3 PM CST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of
distance ahead of you.

&&

$$

ILZ032-033-039-INZ010-011-019-051500-
/O.CON.KLOT.FG.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-260305T1500Z/
Livingston-Iroquois-Ford-Newton-Jasper-Benton-
Including the cities of Rensselaer, Gibson City, DeMotte, Paxton,
Gilman, Fowler, Oxford, Kentland, Dwight, Morocco, Watseka,
Roselawn, Pontiac, and Fairbury
120 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026 /220 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026/

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST /10 AM EST/
THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Visibility of one quarter mile or less in dense fog
expected.

* WHERE...In Illinois, Livingston, Ford, and Iroquois Counties. In
Indiana, Benton, Jasper, and Newton Counties.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM CST /10 AM EST/ this morning.

* IMPACTS...Low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of
distance ahead of you.

&&

$$

Petr

The "Non-Precip Statement" is aimed at the general public and will detail notable weather that is either occuring or expected to occur, but does not relate to any form of precipitation. These would include but are not limited to high winds, reduced visibility or extreme temperatures.

Active Weather Warnings

Tornado Warnings

No active Tornado Warnings.

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings

No active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings.

Flood Warnings

No active Flood Warnings.

General Tornado/Severe Weather Safety

1. A Tornado or Severe Thunderstorm Warning is issued when it has been reported, or when it has been detected via National Weather Service radar. It is to be interpreted that this event is occuring and is expected to affect all warned areas. Those within the warning need to take action immediately.
2. If under a warning remain calm and if it is necessary to seek shelter. Students and Employees should head to their nearest designated shelter area. The route to these shelter areas are posted in all rooms on campus and signs are placed in the hallways to direct you to the nearest shelter area. Review these instructions and be familiar with where your nearest shelter is. Stay indoors, away from windows and large unsupported ceilings. Faculty should account for their students and Supervisors should account for their areas employees.
3. If outside, take shelter in the nearest building.
4. After the storm has passed, dial Police at 911 to report any injuries or damage to buildings.
5. If the building is severely damaged, evacuate the building as soon as possible after the storm has passed.