SPC Convective Outlook Day 1

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437
ACUS01 KWNS 071941
SWODY1
SPC AC 071940

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0240 PM CDT Tue Oct 07 2025

Valid 072000Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms with hail and isolated severe wind gusts
will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of central
New Mexico.

...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See discussion
below for more information.

..Thornton.. 10/07/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1104 AM CDT Tue Oct 07 2025/

...NM...
A broad upper trough is present today over much of the CONUS, with
the subtropical jet extending across northern Mexico into the
southern Plains. Model guidance and water vapor loop suggest a weak
shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max over AZ. This
feature will provide weak-but-sufficient lift for scattered
thunderstorm development this afternoon over the higher terrain of
central NM. Forecast soundings suggest steep low/mid-level lapse
rates and pockets of MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. This will support a
risk of hail and gusty winds for a few hours from the strongest
cells.

...Elsewhere...
Elsewhere, scattered thunderstorms will be possible through the
period across much of the US to the east of the MS River.
Widespread cloudiness, weak lapse rates, and weak forcing mechanisms
should limit the risk of severe storms.

$$

The "Convective Outlooks" issued by SPC can be thought of as a detailed discussion of the Severe Thunderstorm threat and it's associated risks nationwide. Risk levels range from Marginal to Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High and are issued based on the likelihood of 3 major severe weather threats; the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. These discussions are often heavily laced meteorological terminology that may be difficult to understand without a background in the field. However understanding these discussions shouldn't be thought of as necessary. Instead, should DuPage county fall under one of these threat levels for severe weather, the response should be to have a heightened level of awareness about the deveoloping weather. Keep an eye on the "Watch County Notification" for any active severe weather watches issued for DuPage county; the "Hazardous Weather Outlook" and "Severe Weather Statement" can also be helpful in explaining the developing risk; additionally, watch for "Active Weather Warnings" and keep an eye on our "Regional Satellite and Radar" products which can be viewed with active watches/warnings or lightning activity.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

See Product Description

163
FLUS43 KLOT 072032
HWOLOT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL
332 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

ILZ003>006-008-010>013-019>021-023-032-033-039-103>108-INZ001-002-
010-011-019-082045-
Winnebago-Boone-McHenry-Lake IL-Ogle-Lee-De Kalb-Kane-DuPage-
La Salle-Kendall-Grundy-Kankakee-Livingston-Iroquois-Ford-
Northern Cook-Central Cook-Southern Cook-Northern Will-
Southern Will-Eastern Will-Lake IN-Porter-Newton-Jasper-Benton-
332 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 /432 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be necessary through tonight.

$$

LMZ740>745-082045-
Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL-
Wilmette Harbor to Northerly Island IL-
Northerly Island to Calumet Harbor IL-
Calumet Harbor IL to Gary IN-Gary to Burns Harbor IN-
Burns Harbor to Michigan City IN-
332 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Illinois
nearshore waters of Lake Michigan and the Indiana nearshore
waters of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

Hazardous conditions for small craft.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Wednesday...
Hazardous conditions for small craft are likely.

$$

Petr

Visit us at www.weather.gov/chicago

The "Hazardous Weather Outlook" contains information regarding any and all weather expected to occur within the region that could be hazardous to travel, life or property. This is one of our most highly recommended products to check on a daily basis, and it some cases multiple times per day should significant weather be expected to affect DuPage county.

SPC Convective Outlook Day 2

See Product Description

168
ACUS02 KWNS 071731
SWODY2
SPC AC 071729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Tue Oct 07 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on
Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
An amplified mid/upper-level trough initially extending from eastern
Canada into the Northeast and Ohio Valley will move eastward through
the period. A cold front will move through New England and the Mid
Atlantic during the day, and reach parts of the Southeast by
evening. In the wake of the trough, an upper-level ridge will begin
to amplify across parts of the southern/central Rockies and High
Plains. West of the amplifying ridge, a mid/upper-level trough will
deepen in place near the Pacific Coast and adjacent eastern Pacific,
as an embedded deep-layer cyclone moves southward off of the Pacific
Northwest coast.

...Northern Mid Atlantic into southern New England...
Low-topped convection will move through parts of the northern Mid
Atlantic and southern New England during the morning, in conjunction
with the cold front. While much of this convection may produce
little or no lightning, strong deep-layer flow and some enlargement
to low-level hodographs could support gusty winds and weak rotation
with the stronger convective elements. At this time, instability
appears too meager to support an organized severe threat.

...GA into the Carolinas and southeast VA...
Isolated to widely scattered storms will be possible during the
afternoon and evening from parts of GA into the Carolinas and
southeast VA, along and ahead of the cold front. Midlevel flow will
initially be modestly enhanced along the southern periphery of the
departing mid/upper-level trough, though may tend to weaken through
the day. With poor midlevel lapse rates, weak buoyancy, and
generally weakening low-level flow with time, organized severe
potential appears low, though locally gusty winds could accompany
the strongest storms.

...Eastern AZ into western NM...
Scattered afternoon/evening storms will be possible from eastern AZ
into western NM on Wednesday, potentially developing as far north as
the Four Corners region. Some warming of midlevel temperatures and
weakening of midlevel flow/deep-layer shear are expected compared to
D1/Tuesday, due to the influence of the building upper ridge. This
should tend to limit storm organization and intensity, though
locally gusty winds and small hail will be possible.

..Dean.. 10/07/2025

$$

The "Convective Outlooks" issued by SPC can be thought of as a detailed discussion of the Severe Thunderstorm threat and it's associated risks nationwide. Risk levels range from Marginal to Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High and are issued based on the likelihood of 3 major severe weather threats; the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. These discussions are often heavily laced meteorological terminology that may be difficult to understand without a background in the field. However understanding these discussions shouldn't be thought of as necessary. Instead, should DuPage county fall under one of these threat levels for severe weather, the response should be to have a heightened level of awareness about the deveoloping weather. Keep an eye on the "Watch County Notification" for any active severe weather watches issued for DuPage county; the "Hazardous Weather Outlook" and "Severe Weather Statement" can also be helpful in explaining the developing risk; additionally, watch for "Active Weather Warnings" and keep an eye on our "Regional Satellite and Radar" products which can be viewed with active watches/warnings or lightning activity.

SPC Convective Outlook Day 3

See Product Description

496
ACUS03 KWNS 071926
SWODY3
SPC AC 071925

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Tue Oct 07 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
A deep mid/upper-level trough will remain in place across the
Pacific Coast and adjacent eastern Pacific on Thursday. Hurricane
Priscilla is forecast by NHC to move north-northwestward off of the
Baja California coast, as it begins to be influenced by the deep
western trough. Moisture associated with Priscilla will advance
northward across parts of the Southwest, Great Basin, and eventually
the interior Northwest, and will aid in the development of isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorms across the region.

Across the Southeast, a cold front will continue moving southward
toward the Gulf Coast and Florida Peninsula. Generally disorganized
storms will be possible near the front, within a modestly unstable
and weakly sheared environment.

In parts of the Midwest and Upper Great Lakes, weak moistening is
expected later in the day into Thursday night, in response to a
vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough moving southeastward out
of northwest Ontario. Buoyancy may become sufficient to support
sporadic elevated convection within a low-level warm-advection
regime Thursday night.

..Dean.. 10/07/2025

$$

The "Convective Outlooks" issued by SPC can be thought of as a detailed discussion of the Severe Thunderstorm threat and it's associated risks nationwide. Risk levels range from Marginal to Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High and are issued based on the likelihood of 3 major severe weather threats; the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. These discussions are often heavily laced meteorological terminology that may be difficult to understand without a background in the field. However understanding these discussions shouldn't be thought of as necessary. Instead, should DuPage county fall under one of these threat levels for severe weather, the response should be to have a heightened level of awareness about the deveoloping weather. Keep an eye on the "Watch County Notification" for any active severe weather watches issued for DuPage county; the "Hazardous Weather Outlook" and "Severe Weather Statement" can also be helpful in explaining the developing risk; additionally, watch for "Active Weather Warnings" and keep an eye on our "Regional Satellite and Radar" products which can be viewed with active watches/warnings or lightning activity.

Special Weather Statement

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No active Special Weather Statement for DuPage County.

The "Special Weather Statement" details notable weather either occuring or expected to occur, but does not necessarily have to be considered severe or hazardous. This is a supplementary product issued by the National Weather Service to help describe noteworthy weather. It's terminology should be reasonably easy to understand by the general public.

Watch County Notification

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No active Watch County Notification for DuPage County.

The "Watch County Notification" will contain updates regarding active severe weather watches that pertain to DuPage county. This may be for a newly issued watch, or the cancelation of an existing watch. Severe weather watches come in two forms; Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado, and it should be noted that a Severe Thunderstorm Watch does NOT rule out the possibility of tornadoes occuring. It generally means that the tornado threat is minimal while damaging winds and hail are still likely. See our "Watch, Warning, and Advisory Criteria" for more detailed information on the differences and critera for watches, warnings and advisory for all forms of weather.

Winter Weather Statement

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No active Winter Weather Statement for DuPage County.

The "Winter Weather Statement" is a product aimed at the general public that will discuss impacts caused by winter weather. This may include information about watches, warnings and advisories as well as details about impactful winter weather that may not warrant the issuance of a watch, warning or advisory.

Severe Weather Statement

See Product Description

No active Severe Weather Statement for DuPage County.

The "Severe Weather Statement" is a product aimed at the general public that will discuss impacts caused by severe thunderstorms. This may include information about watches and warnings as well as details about impactful "sub-severe" weather that may not warrant the issuance of a watch or warning which sometimes may come when a watch or warning has been canceled.

Non-Precip Statement

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No active Non-Precip Statement for DuPage County.

The "Non-Precip Statement" is aimed at the general public and will detail notable weather that is either occuring or expected to occur, but does not relate to any form of precipitation. These would include but are not limited to high winds, reduced visibility or extreme temperatures.

Active Weather Warnings

Tornado Warnings

No active Tornado Warnings.

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings

No active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings.

Flood Warnings

No active Flood Warnings.

General Tornado/Severe Weather Safety

1. A Tornado or Severe Thunderstorm Warning is issued when it has been reported, or when it has been detected via National Weather Service radar. It is to be interpreted that this event is occuring and is expected to affect all warned areas. Those within the warning need to take action immediately.
2. If under a warning remain calm and if it is necessary to seek shelter. Students and Employees should head to their nearest designated shelter area. The route to these shelter areas are posted in all rooms on campus and signs are placed in the hallways to direct you to the nearest shelter area. Review these instructions and be familiar with where your nearest shelter is. Stay indoors, away from windows and large unsupported ceilings. Faculty should account for their students and Supervisors should account for their areas employees.
3. If outside, take shelter in the nearest building.
4. After the storm has passed, dial Police at 911 to report any injuries or damage to buildings.
5. If the building is severely damaged, evacuate the building as soon as possible after the storm has passed.