SPC Convective Outlook Day 1

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783
ACUS01 KWNS 061259
SWODY1
SPC AC 061258

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0658 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS/MISSOURI AND
SOUTHERN IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from mid afternoon
through tonight from parts of the southern/central Plains to the
Ozarks and Midwest. The greatest potential for a few strong
tornadoes and very large hail should exist across eastern portions
of Oklahoma/Kansas/Nebraska into western Arkansas/Missouri and
southern Iowa.

...Synopsis...
Upper troughing over the western CONUS this morning will evolve into
more of a split flow pattern through the period, as a lead mid-level
shortwave trough ejects northeastward across the central
Plains/Upper Midwest, and a closed low develops over the southern CA
vicinity. A surface lee cyclone has moved into northwest KS early
this morning, and is forecast to develop towards IA by this evening,
while a secondary low shifts eastward along the KS/OK border. A cold
front attendant to the primary surface low will surge
east-southeastward across the southern/central Plains and adjacent
portions of the Midwest through the period, and will likely provide
a focus for organized severe convection later today. A warm front
will develop northward through tonight across parts of the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes. This boundary should serve as a northern limit
to the severe threat from surface-based convection. A dryline will
also extend southward from the secondary surface low across
western/central OK into TX by late afternoon.

...Central Plains into the Midwest/Great Lakes...
Strong low-level warm/moist advection ahead of the lead mid-level
shortwave trough will continue to support scattered to numerous
thunderstorms this morning across eastern KS/NE into northern MO and
IA/IL. This activity will tend to remain elevated, but could pose an
isolated hail threat. In the wake of this convection, low-level
moisture is expected to continue streaming northward today ahead of
the cold front, with upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints common
by mid afternoon. Cold temperatures aloft and steepened mid-level
lapse rates will support the development of at least 1000-1500 J/kg
of MLCAPE with daytime heating. More instability should exist
farther south into KS where greater low-level moisture will be in
place.

Current expectations are for scattered robust thunderstorms to
develop around mid afternoon (20-22Z) across southeast NE/northern
KS and vicinity, in close proximity to the surface low and ejecting
shortwave trough. Additional convection may also form farther south
into central/eastern KS. Strong deep-layer shear associated with a
50-70+ kt mid-level jet will easily support organized updrafts,
including multiple supercells initially. This activity will pose a
risk for large to very large hail, but fairly quick upscale growth
into one or more bowing clusters with a wind damage threat seems
probable along/ahead of the cold front as convection spreads into
IA/MO through the evening. Some risk for at least isolated
severe/damaging winds may persist late tonight into early Saturday
morning across WI/IL and perhaps even Lower MI if one of these
clusters can maintain intensity, although instability is forecast to
become more limited with eastward extent across these areas.

A few tornadoes may occur with sustained supercells or embedded QLCS
circulations across the central Plains/Midwest along/south of the
warm front given favorable low-level shear and enlarged/curved
hodographs. A strong tornado appears possible with any supercells
this evening as low-level shear strengthens in tandem with a
south-southwesterly low-level jet. The Enhanced Risk has been
expanded a little north/westward in northeast KS, southeast NE, and
southwest IA to account for the very large hail potential with
initial supercell development. Some consideration was also given to
greater severe wind probabilities in IA, but confidence in a more
concentrated corridor of damaging winds is low given the weaker
instability forecast with eastward extent across the Midwest.

...Southern Plains into the Ozarks...
Convective initiation along the length of the dryline in OK/TX
remains highly uncertain this afternoon/evening, as low-level
convergence will be weak and stronger large-scale ascent associated
with the ejecting shortwave trough will remain mostly displaced to
the north of these areas. Still, recent HRRR/RAP/NAM guidance
suggests that MLCIN will be minimal by peak afternoon heating, with
moderate instability in place along/east of the dryline. If any
cells can form and be sustained, they would likely become severe and
pose a threat for very large hail given the presence of steep
mid-level lapse rates noted on the 12Z OUN observed sounding, along
with around 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear aiding updraft
organization. The tornado threat would also increase this evening
with any persistent supercells as low-level shear gradually
strengthens. Regardless, the chance for convective initiation still
appears highly uncertain/conditional this afternoon. A better chance
for robust thunderstorm development remains apparent later this
evening/tonight as the cold front advances southward. Both large
hail and damaging winds may occur with this overnight activity
through the end of the period.

Most guidance also continues to show a somewhat separate area of
thunderstorms developing farther east across eastern OK/western AR
and vicinity this afternoon into early evening. This activity might
be aided by a very weak mid-level perturbation moving northeastward
today across central/northeast TX. If this convection develops, then
it would pose a threat for all hazards, including large hail,
damaging winds, and tornadoes (some of which could be strong). No
changes have been made to the Enhanced Risk across the southern
Plains/Ozarks with this update.

..Gleason/Dean.. 03/06/2026

$$

The "Convective Outlooks" issued by SPC can be thought of as a detailed discussion of the Severe Thunderstorm threat and it's associated risks nationwide. Risk levels range from Marginal to Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High and are issued based on the likelihood of 3 major severe weather threats; the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. These discussions are often heavily laced meteorological terminology that may be difficult to understand without a background in the field. However understanding these discussions shouldn't be thought of as necessary. Instead, should DuPage county fall under one of these threat levels for severe weather, the response should be to have a heightened level of awareness about the deveoloping weather. Keep an eye on the "Watch County Notification" for any active severe weather watches issued for DuPage county; the "Hazardous Weather Outlook" and "Severe Weather Statement" can also be helpful in explaining the developing risk; additionally, watch for "Active Weather Warnings" and keep an eye on our "Regional Satellite and Radar" products which can be viewed with active watches/warnings or lightning activity.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

See Product Description

701
FLUS43 KLOT 060904
HWOLOT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL
304 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

ILZ003>006-008-010>013-019>021-023-032-033-039-103>108-INZ001-002-
010-011-019-070915-
Winnebago-Boone-McHenry-Lake IL-Ogle-Lee-De Kalb-Kane-DuPage-
La Salle-Kendall-Grundy-Kankakee-Livingston-Iroquois-Ford-
Northern Cook-Central Cook-Southern Cook-Northern Will-
Southern Will-Eastern Will-Lake IN-Porter-Newton-Jasper-Benton-
304 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026 /404 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

Elevated Thunderstorm Risk...with an associated:
Level 2 of 5 Damaging Wind Risk...up to 60 mph.
Level 2 of 5 Large Hail Risk...up to one inch.
Level 1 of 5 Tornado Risk.
Limited Flooding Risk.
Significant Fog Risk this morning.

DISCUSSION...

Dense fog will slowly improve from south to north this morning.

Periods of thunderstorms are expected this morning, this
afternoon and late tonight. Heavy rain and localized flooding
will be possible with any of these thunderstorms.

Some of these thunderstorms may become severe this afternoon
and late tonight. Large hail and locally damaging winds will be
possible with the strongest storms. There is also a risk for
tornadoes with any thunderstorms that develop this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Saturday...
Limited Thunderstorm Risk.
Tuesday...
Limited Flooding Risk.
Limited Thunderstorm Risk.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed this afternoon and again tonight.

GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY:

Moving toward the east at 35 to 45 mph.

$$

LMZ740>745-070915-
Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL-
Wilmette Harbor to Northerly Island IL-
Northerly Island to Calumet Harbor IL-
Calumet Harbor IL to Gary IN-Gary to Burns Harbor IN-
Burns Harbor to Michigan City IN-
304 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Illinois
nearshore waters of Lake Michigan and the Indiana nearshore
waters of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

Elevated Thunderstorm Risk...with an associated:
Thunderstorm Waterspout Risk
Level 2 of 5 Thunderstorm Wind Gust Risk...up to 40 knots.
Level 1 of 5 Hail Risk...up to one inch.
Significant Fog Risk.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Saturday...
Hazardous conditions for small craft are likely.
Limited Thunderstorm Risk in the morning.
Monday...
Hazardous conditions for small craft are likely.
Tuesday...
Hazardous conditions for small craft are likely.
Limited Thunderstorm Risk
Wednesday and Thursday...
Hazardous conditions for small craft are likely.

$$

Visit us at www.weather.gov/chicago

The "Hazardous Weather Outlook" contains information regarding any and all weather expected to occur within the region that could be hazardous to travel, life or property. This is one of our most highly recommended products to check on a daily basis, and it some cases multiple times per day should significant weather be expected to affect DuPage county.

SPC Convective Outlook Day 2

See Product Description

919
ACUS02 KWNS 060655
SWODY2
SPC AC 060653

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS
TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO LOWER
GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from
Saturday morning into the evening across a broad swath of the
southern Great Plains to the Lower Great Lakes. Isolated very large
hail may occur in parts of Texas.

...Synopsis...

An upper shortwave trough, with multiple embedded shortwave
impulses, will migrate east across the Midwest and Great Lakes
regions on Saturday. Meanwhile, an upper low over the
Southwest/Lower CO Valley will continue to retrograde, becoming
positioned offshore from Baja CA by Sunday morning. At the surface,
low pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will deepen as it shifts
northeast across Ontario and Quebec. A trailing cold front will
extend south/southwest from the low toward the Lower MO Valley and
into north and central TX at the beginning of the period. This front
will sweep east/southeast across the Midwest and Mid-South/TN Valley
vicinity, while the Plains portion of the front develops southward
across TX.

...Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes vicinity...

Convection will be ongoing across portions of the region Saturday
morning along outflow positioned well ahead of the synoptic cold
front. Southwesterly low-level flow and the deepening surface
cyclone over the Great Lakes will maintain upper 50s to low 60s F
dewpoints across the region. Cloudiness and ongoing convection will
limit surface heating. However, strong deep-layer southwesterly flow
and modest destabilization (MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg) will support
sustained thunderstorm development into the afternoon/evening.

The greatest risk for severe appears to be across the Upper Ohio
Valley where some stronger heating is possible. Sufficient low-level
speed shear will be present to enlarge low-level hodographs.
Furthermore, 0-1 km SRH values near 150 m2/s2 are noted in some
forecast soundings. However, linear convection is expected to be the
main storm mode given boundary-parallel deep-layer southwesterly
flow, promoting mainly a damaging wind risk. However, if any
cellular convection develops, an isolated risk for marginally severe
hail and a tornado or two also will be possible.

...TX into the Mid-South and Lower MS/TN Valleys...

Convection is expected to be ongoing near the surface front Saturday
morning. Some of this convection may be elevated as it quickly
becomes undercut by the cold front, especially near the Red River
into portions of AR. This activity may pose a risk for severe hail
early in the period across north TX into southeast OK and parts of
AR. Convection is expected to develop south and east along the front
through the day. The downstream warm sector will be characterized by
low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates,
supporting MLCAPE in the 500-1500 J/kg range. Linear convection will
be most predominant across the Mid-South into the TN valley where a
risk for isolated to scattered wind damage and marginal hail will
exist through the afternoon before a weakening trend ensues after
sunset across the Deep South.

Across TX, steeper midlevel lapse rates are forecast. Low level flow
is expected to remain modest further removed from the upper
shortwave trough and surface cyclone across the Midwest/Great Lakes.
However, stronger heating, steeper low and midlevel lapse rates, and
favorable wind profiles for organized supercells will support a
corridor of severe hail potential from central TX toward southwest
AR/northwest LA near the undercutting cold front. The strongest
storms could produce hail in the 1.5-2 inch range.

..Leitman.. 03/06/2026

$$

The "Convective Outlooks" issued by SPC can be thought of as a detailed discussion of the Severe Thunderstorm threat and it's associated risks nationwide. Risk levels range from Marginal to Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High and are issued based on the likelihood of 3 major severe weather threats; the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. These discussions are often heavily laced meteorological terminology that may be difficult to understand without a background in the field. However understanding these discussions shouldn't be thought of as necessary. Instead, should DuPage county fall under one of these threat levels for severe weather, the response should be to have a heightened level of awareness about the deveoloping weather. Keep an eye on the "Watch County Notification" for any active severe weather watches issued for DuPage county; the "Hazardous Weather Outlook" and "Severe Weather Statement" can also be helpful in explaining the developing risk; additionally, watch for "Active Weather Warnings" and keep an eye on our "Regional Satellite and Radar" products which can be viewed with active watches/warnings or lightning activity.

SPC Convective Outlook Day 3

See Product Description

827
ACUS03 KWNS 060801
SWODY3
SPC AC 060800

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms potential is low on Sunday.

...Synopsis...

A lower-amplitude upper-level pattern defined by westerly flow aloft
east of the Rockies will overspread the central and eastern U.S. on
Sunday. Meanwhile, an upper low will persist offshore from Baja CA.
At the surface, a cold front will move offshore the Northeast coast
by late afternoon. The southern extension of this boundary will
stall from the Mid-Atlantic into the TN Valley. Meanwhile, the
western portion of the boundary across eastern and southern TX will
lift northward late in the period. Gulf moisture will remain in
place across the southeast U.S. into TX, but limited large-scale
ascent and lack of height falls within the quasi-zonal regime will
limit severe potential. Nevertheless, isolated thunderstorms may be
ongoing across parts of the Lower MS Valley along remnant outflow
from the Day 2/Sat period. The warm advection regime across TX also
may support isolated thunderstorms through the period. Overall,
severe thunderstorm potential appears low.

..Leitman.. 03/06/2026

$$

The "Convective Outlooks" issued by SPC can be thought of as a detailed discussion of the Severe Thunderstorm threat and it's associated risks nationwide. Risk levels range from Marginal to Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High and are issued based on the likelihood of 3 major severe weather threats; the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. These discussions are often heavily laced meteorological terminology that may be difficult to understand without a background in the field. However understanding these discussions shouldn't be thought of as necessary. Instead, should DuPage county fall under one of these threat levels for severe weather, the response should be to have a heightened level of awareness about the deveoloping weather. Keep an eye on the "Watch County Notification" for any active severe weather watches issued for DuPage county; the "Hazardous Weather Outlook" and "Severe Weather Statement" can also be helpful in explaining the developing risk; additionally, watch for "Active Weather Warnings" and keep an eye on our "Regional Satellite and Radar" products which can be viewed with active watches/warnings or lightning activity.

Special Weather Statement

See Product Description

No active Special Weather Statement for DuPage County.

The "Special Weather Statement" details notable weather either occuring or expected to occur, but does not necessarily have to be considered severe or hazardous. This is a supplementary product issued by the National Weather Service to help describe noteworthy weather. It's terminology should be reasonably easy to understand by the general public.

Watch County Notification

See Product Description

No active Watch County Notification for DuPage County.

The "Watch County Notification" will contain updates regarding active severe weather watches that pertain to DuPage county. This may be for a newly issued watch, or the cancelation of an existing watch. Severe weather watches come in two forms; Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado, and it should be noted that a Severe Thunderstorm Watch does NOT rule out the possibility of tornadoes occuring. It generally means that the tornado threat is minimal while damaging winds and hail are still likely. See our "Watch, Warning, and Advisory Criteria" for more detailed information on the differences and critera for watches, warnings and advisory for all forms of weather.

Winter Weather Statement

See Product Description

No active Winter Weather Statement for DuPage County.

The "Winter Weather Statement" is a product aimed at the general public that will discuss impacts caused by winter weather. This may include information about watches, warnings and advisories as well as details about impactful winter weather that may not warrant the issuance of a watch, warning or advisory.

Severe Weather Statement

See Product Description

No active Severe Weather Statement for DuPage County.

The "Severe Weather Statement" is a product aimed at the general public that will discuss impacts caused by severe thunderstorms. This may include information about watches and warnings as well as details about impactful "sub-severe" weather that may not warrant the issuance of a watch or warning which sometimes may come when a watch or warning has been canceled.

Non-Precip Statement

See Product Description

339
WWUS73 KLOT 061505
NPWLOT

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Chicago IL
905 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

ILZ003>005-008-010>013-019>021-023-032-033-039-105>108-INZ010-011-
019-061615-
/O.CAN.KLOT.FG.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-260306T1600Z/
Winnebago-Boone-McHenry-Ogle-Lee-De Kalb-Kane-DuPage-La Salle-
Kendall-Grundy-Kankakee-Livingston-Iroquois-Ford-Southern Cook-
Northern Will-Southern Will-Eastern Will-Newton-Jasper-Benton-
Including the cities of Gilman, Algonquin, Joliet, Kentland,
Fowler, Rochelle, Oswego, Aurora, Pontiac, Rockford, Belvidere,
Elgin, Gibson City, Peotone, Rensselaer, Paxton, Morocco, Carol
Stream, Streator, Fairbury, Yorkville, Dixon, Orland Park,
Mokena, Oxford, Bourbonnais, La Salle, Watseka, Minooka,
Kankakee, Oregon, Lombard, Park Forest, Channahon, Bolingbrook,
Crystal Lake, Ottawa, Coal City, Plainfield, Crete, Morris,
Bradley, Oak Forest, Roselawn, Wilmington, Lemont, Calumet City,
Plano, Mendota, McHenry, Wheaton, DeKalb, Sycamore, Downers
Grove, Byron, DeMotte, Dwight, Naperville, Beecher, Woodstock,
Marseilles, and Manhattan
905 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026 /1005 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2026/

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Visibility has improved to over one quarter mile this morning, and
will continue to improve through this afternoon. Therefore, the
Dense Fog Advisory has been canceled.

$$

ILZ006-103-104-061615-
/O.CON.KLOT.FG.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-260306T1600Z/
Lake IL-Northern Cook-Central Cook-
Including the cities of Oak Park, Mundelein, Oak Lawn, Buffalo
Grove, Schaumburg, Gurnee, Evanston, Northbrook, Cicero,
Palatine, La Grange, Des Plaines, Waukegan, and Chicago
905 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Visibility of one quarter mile or less in dense fog near
Lake Michigan.

* WHERE...Central Cook, Lake IL, and Northern Cook Counties.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM CST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of
distance ahead of you.

&&

$$

INZ001-002-061615-
/O.CON.KLOT.FG.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-260306T1600Z/
Lake IN-Porter-
Including the cities of Hammond, Merrillville, Gary, Portage,
Valparaiso, and Chesterton
905 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Visibility one quarter mile or less in dense fog.

* WHERE...Lake IN and Porter Counties.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM CST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of
distance ahead of you.

&&

$$

Kluber

The "Non-Precip Statement" is aimed at the general public and will detail notable weather that is either occuring or expected to occur, but does not relate to any form of precipitation. These would include but are not limited to high winds, reduced visibility or extreme temperatures.

Active Weather Warnings

Tornado Warnings

No active Tornado Warnings.

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings

No active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings.

Flood Warnings

No active Flood Warnings.

General Tornado/Severe Weather Safety

1. A Tornado or Severe Thunderstorm Warning is issued when it has been reported, or when it has been detected via National Weather Service radar. It is to be interpreted that this event is occuring and is expected to affect all warned areas. Those within the warning need to take action immediately.
2. If under a warning remain calm and if it is necessary to seek shelter. Students and Employees should head to their nearest designated shelter area. The route to these shelter areas are posted in all rooms on campus and signs are placed in the hallways to direct you to the nearest shelter area. Review these instructions and be familiar with where your nearest shelter is. Stay indoors, away from windows and large unsupported ceilings. Faculty should account for their students and Supervisors should account for their areas employees.
3. If outside, take shelter in the nearest building.
4. After the storm has passed, dial Police at 911 to report any injuries or damage to buildings.
5. If the building is severely damaged, evacuate the building as soon as possible after the storm has passed.