Extended Range Tornado Activity Forecasts (ERTAF)

ERTAF 2017 has concluded!



An information page with explanation of statistics below can be found here.

FCSTDATE

FCST2START

FCST2END

FCST3START

FCST3END

CLIMO2

CLIMO3

ACT2

ACT3

PN2

PN3

ACT2C

ACT3C

FCST2

FCST3

VERF2

VERF3

3/5/2017 3/12/2017 3/18/2017 3/19/2017 3/25/2017 16.1 12.7 1 12 6% 100% BA A A A 0 1
3/12/2017 3/19/2017 3/25/2017 3/26/2017 4/1/2017 12.7 23.7 12 56 100% 236% A AA AA AA 0 1
3/19/2017 3/26/2017 4/1/2017 4/2/2017 4/8/2017 23.7 28.8 56 72 236% 250% AA AA AA AA 1 1
3/26/2017 4/2/2017 4/8/2017 4/9/2017 4/15/2017 28.8 37.3 72 21 250% 56% AA BA AA BA 1 1
4/2/2017 4/9/2017 4/15/2017 4/16/2017 4/22/2017 37.3 35.8 21 11 56% 31% BA BA A BA 0 1
4/9/2017 4/16/2017 4/22/2017 4/23/2017 4/29/2017 35.8 52.9 11 25 31% 25% BA BA BA BA 1 1
4/16/2017 4/23/2017 4/29/2017 4/30/2017 5/6/2017 52.9 50.2 25 62 25% 123% BA A BA A 1 1
4/23/2017 4/30/2017 5/6/2017 5/7/2017 5/13/2017 50.2 60.6 62 40 123% 66% A BA BA A 0 0
4/30/2017 5/7/2017 5/13/2017 5/14/2017 5/20/2017 60.6 49 40 122 66% 249% BA AA BA A 1 0
5/7/2017 5/14/2017 5/20/2017 5/21/2017 5/27/2017 49 59 122 61 249% 103% AA A AA AA 1 0
5/14/2017 5/21/2017 5/27/2017 5/28/2017 6/3/2017 59 63 61 14 103% 14% A BA A A 1 0
5/21/2017 5/28/2017 6/3/2017 6/4/2017 6/10/2017 63 61.7 14 19 14% 19% BA BA A AA 0 -1
5/28/2017 6/4/2017 6/10/2017 6/11/2017 6/17/2017 61.7 56.7 19 P 19% P BA P A AA 0 P
6/4/2017 6/11/2017 6/17/2017 6/18/2017 6/24/2017 56.7 49 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
6/11/2017 6/18/2017 6/24/2017 6/25/2017 7/1/2017 49 46 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

 

All tornado report data is from the Storm Prediction Center and should be considered preliminary pending final review.

 

 

Verification Legend

-1

0

1

More than 50% of Normal Error

No More than 50% of Normal Error

Correct % of Normal Threshold

Forecast Archive : 2015 | 2016 |

An information page with explanation of column headers can be found here.

 

Contributors:  John Allen  |  Brad Barrett  |  Victor Gensini  |  David Gold  |  Alan Marinaro  |  Paul Sirvatka Mike Ventrice

 

© 2015-2017  Victor Gensini