Extended Range Tornado Activity Forecasts (ERTAF)

Period:

Forecast: Confidence:
Week 2 April 22nd - April 29th Below Average  Medium
Week 3 April 30th - May 6th Average Low

 

Forecast updated on 16 April 2017 at 8:00 PM CDT

The next forecast is scheduled to post on 23 April 2017 by 9:00 PM CST.



An information page with explanation of statistics below can be found here.

FCSTDATE

FCST2START

FCST2END

FCST3START

FCST3END

CLIMO2

CLIMO3

ACT2

ACT3

PN2

PN3

ACT2C

ACT3C

FCST2

FCST3

VERF2

VERF3

3/5/2017 3/12/2017 3/18/2017 3/19/2017 3/25/2017 16.1 12.7 1 12 6% 100% BA A A A 0 1
3/12/2017 3/19/2017 3/25/2017 3/26/2017 4/1/2017 12.7 23.7 12 56 100% 236% A AA AA AA 0 1
3/19/2017 3/26/2017 4/1/2017 4/2/2017 4/8/2017 23.7 28.8 56 72 236% 250% AA AA AA AA 1 1
3/26/2017 4/2/2017 4/8/2017 4/9/2017 4/15/2017 28.8 37.3 72 21 250% 56% AA BA AA BA 1 1
4/2/2017 4/9/2017 4/15/2017 4/16/2017 4/22/2017 37.3 35.8 21 P 56% P BA P A BA 0 P
4/9/2017 4/16/2017 4/22/2017 4/23/2017 4/29/2017 35.8 52.9 P P P P P P BA BA P P
4/16/2017 4/23/2017 4/29/2017 4/30/2017 5/6/2017 52.9 50.2 P P P P P P BA A P P

 

All tornado report data is from the Storm Prediction Center and should be considered preliminary pending final review.

 

 

Forecast synopsis:

 

Week 2:  Global relative AAM is forecast to remain high for the week two period, and northwesterly flow / moisture scouring should be occurring across the Great Plains during a portion of the period.

 

Week 3:  This period could feature a return back to AA severe weather conditions based on dynamical forecasts of CFSv2 global relative AAM. AA SSTs are still being recorded across the Gulf of Mexico. We will leave at A thresholds right now (low confidence) and wait to upgrade until next week if conditions still appear favorable.


Forecasters:   Gensini | Barrett | Marinaro | Sirvatka | Allen

 

Verification Legend

-1

0

1

More than 50% of Normal Error

No More than 50% of Normal Error

Correct % of Normal Threshold

Forecast Archive : 2015 | 2016 |

An information page with explanation of column headers can be found here.

 

Contributors:  John Allen  |  Brad Barrett  |  Victor Gensini  |  David Gold  |  Alan Marinaro  |  Paul Sirvatka

 

© 2015-2017  Victor Gensini