Extended Range Tornado Activity Forecasts (ERTAF)

Period:

Forecast: Confidence:
Week 2 June 4th - June 10th Average Medium
Week 3 June 11th - June 17th Above Average Low

 

Forecast updated on 28 May 2017 at 9:55 PM CDT

The next forecast is scheduled to post on 4 June 2017 by 9:00 PM CDT.



An information page with explanation of statistics below can be found here.

FCSTDATE

FCST2START

FCST2END

FCST3START

FCST3END

CLIMO2

CLIMO3

ACT2

ACT3

PN2

PN3

ACT2C

ACT3C

FCST2

FCST3

VERF2

VERF3

3/5/2017 3/12/2017 3/18/2017 3/19/2017 3/25/2017 16.1 12.7 1 12 6% 100% BA A A A 0 1
3/12/2017 3/19/2017 3/25/2017 3/26/2017 4/1/2017 12.7 23.7 12 56 100% 236% A AA AA AA 0 1
3/19/2017 3/26/2017 4/1/2017 4/2/2017 4/8/2017 23.7 28.8 56 72 236% 250% AA AA AA AA 1 1
3/26/2017 4/2/2017 4/8/2017 4/9/2017 4/15/2017 28.8 37.3 72 21 250% 56% AA BA AA BA 1 1
4/2/2017 4/9/2017 4/15/2017 4/16/2017 4/22/2017 37.3 35.8 21 11 56% 31% BA BA A BA 0 1
4/9/2017 4/16/2017 4/22/2017 4/23/2017 4/29/2017 35.8 52.9 11 25 31% 25% BA BA BA BA 1 1
4/16/2017 4/23/2017 4/29/2017 4/30/2017 5/6/2017 52.9 50.2 25 62 25% 123% BA A BA A 1 1
4/23/2017 4/30/2017 5/6/2017 5/7/2017 5/13/2017 50.2 60.6 62 40 123% 66% A BA BA A 0 0
4/30/2017 5/7/2017 5/13/2017 5/14/2017 5/20/2017 60.6 49 40 122 66% 249% BA AA BA A 1 0
5/7/2017 5/14/2017 5/20/2017 5/21/2017 5/27/2017 49 59 122 61 249% 103% AA A AA AA 1 0
5/14/2017 5/21/2017 5/27/2017 5/28/2017 6/3/2017 59 63 61 P 103% P A P A A 1 P
5/21/2017 5/28/2017 6/3/2017 6/4/2017 6/10/2017 63 61.7 P P P P P P A AA P P
5/28/2017 6/4/2017 6/10/2017 6/11/2017 6/17/2017 61.7 56.7 P P P P P P A AA P P

 

All tornado report data is from the Storm Prediction Center and should be considered preliminary pending final review.

 

 

Forecast synopsis:

 

Week 2:  The extension and subsequent collapse of the NPJ discussed last week for possible week 3 AA activity now appears it may be delayed into the current week three forecast period. This, in conjunction with the latest suites of dynamical models, suggest severe weather activity may be off to a slow start during the week 2 forecast period. Concerns also exist due to limited moisture return early in the period. Additionally, climatological frequencies are near their annual peak. Will downgrade this period to A conditions.

 

Week 3: Forecasts of AAM and analogs suggest troughing in the western CONUS should be well established by week 3. Questions do remain about the ejection of the trough and number of very favorable severe weather days. Ample moisture will likely be in place, with a northern/high plains bias due to the latitudinal placement of the NPJ. Introducing AA conditions for this period. 


Forecasters:   Gensini | Gold

 

Verification Legend

-1

0

1

More than 50% of Normal Error

No More than 50% of Normal Error

Correct % of Normal Threshold

Forecast Archive : 2015 | 2016 |

An information page with explanation of column headers can be found here.

 

Contributors:  John Allen  |  Brad Barrett  |  Victor Gensini  |  David Gold  |  Alan Marinaro  |  Paul Sirvatka Mike Ventrice

 

© 2015-2017  Victor Gensini