The following are difax maps and are the 500 mb heights and vorticity
forecast. They are the NGM run and show an impressive shortwave moving
through a zonal flow in the longwave pattern (the jet stream).
The solid black lines are the heights. They are close together, or packed,
which shows a rapid change in heights over a short distance and thus fast
winds. This is the jet stream. One will also notice that the lines run
west to east with little change to the north or south. This is considered
to be a zonal flow.
The dashed black lines are the vorticity with an "x" to depict the center
of maximum vorticity and an "n" to mark the center of minimum voticity.
The values of the vorticity, marked by the dashed lines, decrease with
distance away from the center of maximum vorticity, marked by the "x".
- 12 hour forecast
- The wave, now positively tilted (oriented from northeast to southwest), is
centered in northeast Kansas and has a value of 24. The shortwave extends
southwestward from the center through southeast Colorado, northeast New Mexico
and into southwest New Mexico.
- 24 hour forecast
- The wave is now neutrally tilted (has a north-south alignment) and is centered in southern Missouri. The Maximum value has increased to 26. The
trough associated with the shortwave extends through Arkansas to the
ArkLaTex region (the border of Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas). A piece
of the trough then extends back to the southwest through Texas, also known
as a vort lobe.
- 36 hour forecast
- The wave is now negatively titled (aligned from northwest to southeast)
as it heads through the Ohio Valley. The maximum value, still 26, is located
over the Ohio/Kentucky border. Illinois is for the most part ok as the back
edge of the wave is moving out but a forecaster must be aware of other
waves. Notice a s/wv (shortwave) in northern South Dakota, with a maximum
value of 18 and has vorticity lines wrapped around it. The wave has a
nagative tilt as it extends southeastward through Missouri.
- 48 hour forecast
- The main shortwave is weakening as it heads into New England. It is very
negatively tilted but the value has decreased to 20. The secondary, or
next, shortwave is now centered over southern Minnesota/northern Iowa and
still has a value of 18. The shortwave trough associated with this vorticity
maximum, or vort max, extends through northern Illinois and north central
Indiana.
Forecasting Notes
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