571
WTPZ42 KNHC 031428
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122008
800 AM PDT WED SEP 03 2008
KARINA HAS BEEN UNABLE TO GENERATE PERSISTENT ORGANIZED CONVECTION
FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS...AND THE CYCLONE IS NOW ESSENTIALLY A SWIRL OF
LOW CLOUDS. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES THAT THE WINDS HAVE
DECREASED TO AROUND 25 KT AND THIS WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY
ESTIMATE. WITH THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERING COOLER WATERS...STABLE
AIR...AND STRONG SHEAR...SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED...AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/4. NOW A SHALLOW SYSTEM...THE
REMNANT LOW SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW RESULTING IN A
GRADUAL TURN SOUTHWESTWARD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/1500Z 20.2N 114.0W 25 KT
12HR VT 04/0000Z 20.3N 114.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 04/1200Z 20.3N 115.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 05/0000Z 20.0N 116.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER RHOME
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