775
WTPZ41 KNHC 192043
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162009
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 19 2009
MARTY HAS BEEN VOID OF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION SINCE AROUND 0500
UTC...AND THEREFORE IS BEING DECLARED A REMNANT LOW. MARTY STILL HAS
A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT SHOULD PERSIST FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND MAY PRODUCE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 25 KT...AND A SLOW WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED THROUGH DISSIPATION.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10. AS MARTY MOVES TO THE SOUTH
OF THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE LOW
DISSIPATES. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND THE TVCN MODEL CONSENSUS.
THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
MARTY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/2100Z 22.9N 119.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
12HR VT 20/0600Z 23.1N 120.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 20/1800Z 23.2N 122.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 21/0600Z 23.1N 124.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 21/1800Z 22.8N 127.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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