605
WTNT44 KNHC 081453
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2008
DESPITE IKE'S TRACK OVER LAND DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS OR SO...THE
CYCLONE STILL HAS A GOOD CLOUD SIGNATURE AND RADAR STRUCTURE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS THUS ONLY LOWERED TO 85 KT. A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE IKE THIS AFTERNOON AND DETERMINE HOW MUCH
WEAKENING HAS OCCURRED. EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER
WILL BE BACK OVER WATER SOUTH OF CUBA SOON. IF THIS
MATERIALIZES...IKE MIGHT NOT WEAKEN AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY
SHOWN...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY UPWARD WHILE IKE IS OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN.
IN ABOUT 2 DAYS...IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
WHERE THE WATERS ARE WARM AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LOW...AND
RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.
CUBAN RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT IKE
CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD OR 270/12. TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IKE WILL SOON TURN WEST-NORTHWEST AND TRACK
ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF CUBA FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS
REQUIRES A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD SHIFT TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK THROUGH 36
HOURS. DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE STILL FORECASTING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TO MOVE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IN A COUPLE OF DAYS
RESULTING IN SOME WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF IKE.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE IKE TO TURN TEMPORARILY TO THE NORTHWEST
WITH A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED. ALL MODELS FORECAST THE
SHORTWAVE TO BYPASS IKE TO THE NORTH...AND ARE NOW IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT IKE WILL TURN SLIGHTLY WESTWARD IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.
THIS TURN IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. HOWEVER...MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
WHICH BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE. ACCORDINGLY...IT
IS STILL MUCH TOO SOON TO KNOW WHAT PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST
COULD BE IMPACTED BY IKE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 08/1500Z 21.1N 78.5W 85 KT
12HR VT 09/0000Z 21.5N 80.2W 75 KT
24HR VT 09/1200Z 22.2N 82.2W 75 KT
36HR VT 10/0000Z 23.1N 83.8W 70 KT
48HR VT 10/1200Z 24.0N 85.1W 80 KT
72HR VT 11/1200Z 25.5N 87.5W 95 KT
96HR VT 12/1200Z 27.0N 90.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 13/1200Z 28.5N 93.5W 100 KT
FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA
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