119
FOPZ15 KNHC 112035
PWSEP5
HURRICANE NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
2100 UTC SAT OCT 11 2008
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
85 KTS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 56 NA NA NA NA NA
TROP DEPRESSION X 39 NA NA NA NA NA
TROPICAL STORM 70 6 NA NA NA NA NA
HURRICANE 30 X NA NA NA NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 30 X NA NA NA NA NA
HUR CAT 2 1 X NA NA NA NA NA
HUR CAT 3 X X NA NA NA NA NA
HUR CAT 4 X X NA NA NA NA NA
HUR CAT 5 X X NA NA NA NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 65KT 25KT NA NA NA NA NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P ABREOJOS 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
LA PAZ 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
LORETO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
LORETO 50 12 X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
HERMOSILLO 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
BAHIA KINO 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GUAYMAS 34 38 X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38)
HUATABAMPO 34 98 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
HUATABAMPO 50 75 1(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76)
HUATABAMPO 64 26 X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26)
LOS MOCHIS 34 80 X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80)
LOS MOCHIS 50 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
CULICAN 34 26 X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26)
FORECASTER BROWN
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