050
FONT11 KNHC 101434
PWSAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1500 UTC TUE NOV 10 2009
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 30.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 4 12 23 NA NA NA NA
TROP DEPRESSION 62 50 44 NA NA NA NA
TROPICAL STORM 34 37 31 NA NA NA NA
HURRICANE X 1 2 NA NA NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 X 1 2 NA NA NA NA
HUR CAT 2 X X X NA NA NA NA
HUR CAT 3 X X X NA NA NA NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X NA NA NA NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X NA NA NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 30KT 30KT 25KT NA NA NA NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
JACKSONVILLE 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
ORLANDO FL 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
TAMPA FL 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 3 15(18) 5(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ST MARKS FL 34 3 14(17) 5(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
ST MARKS FL 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
APALACHICOLA 34 5 14(19) 4(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
APALACHICOLA 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 3 8(11) 4(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 11 16(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29)
PANAMA CITY FL 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
COLUMBUS GA 34 2 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
PENSACOLA FL 34 44 4(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 5 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
MOBILE AL 34 15 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
GULFPORT MS 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
FORECASTER BLAKE
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