094
AGXX40 KNHC 050709
MIMATS
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
215 AM EST THU NOV 05 2009
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH (THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT) REMAINS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF FROM 25N81W TO 23N86W TO NEAR CAROCOL
MEXICO ON THE N YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY THEN WILL DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRI. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAS WEAKENED WITH
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS NOW OCCURRING. EARLIER QUIKSCAT
PASS INDICATED 25 TO 30 KT NW-N WINDS IN THE FAR SW GULF WITH
20-25 KT N-NE WINDS COVERING THE MAJORITY OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF WATERS EXCEPT NEAR THE TX COAST WHERE WINDS ARE 10-15
KT. HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD DOWN FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES TODAY THEN WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE E OVER THE SE U.S.
STATES. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW PRES TO
THE SE-S WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GULF THROUGH FRI. LATEST
GFS AND NAM MODEL RUNS DEVELOP A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI WITH NE-N WINDS ON THE W SIDE OF THE LOW
INCREASING TO GALE FORCE BY 12 UTC FRI AND CONTINUING THROUGH 00
UTC SUN. WINDS THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE LOW SHIFTS TO THE
N-NW AND THE HIGH OVER THE SE U.S. SHIFTS EASTWARD TO A POSITION
NEAR BERMUDA WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT. MEANWHILE...03 UTC NHC
TRACK BRINGS T.S. IDA TO 21.5N 86.5W IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY
00 UTC TUE.
SW N ATLC S OF 31N AND W OF 55W...
A WEAK AND SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS IN PLACE OVER THE NE
PORTION OF THE AREA FROM 29N65W TO 28N70W WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THERE TO NEAR NASSAU BAHAMAS. THIS FRONT
WILL BECOME DIFFUSE AND DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THIS MORNING WHICH WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST
COAST OF THE U.S. TODAY. A STRONG NORTHERLY WIND SURGE SETS UP
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH SUN AS THE COMBINATION OF HIGH
PRES BUILDING OVER THE SE U.S. STATES AND A LOW DEEPENING OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST RESULTS IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.
NORTHERLY SWELL GENERATED BY THESE WINDS WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH
THE AREA BUILDING SEAS UP TO 12 FT OVER THE N PORTION FRI NIGHT
THROUGH SUN. THE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT PERSISTENT
20-25 KT EASTERLY WINDS...AND 8 TO 12 FT SEAS CONTINUING.
CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC W OF 55W...
T.S. IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 83.2W EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SATELLITE ESTIMATED WINDS OF 55 KT. IDA IS FORECAST TO MAKE
LANDFALL ALONG THE E COAST OF NICARAGUA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
IT CONTINUES MOVING TO THE NW NEAR 6 KT. SHORT PERIOD WAVES OF 8
TO 12 FT (WITH MAX SEAS OF 19 FT) WILL AFFECT THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS S OF 18N W OF 80W. OTHERWISE...SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES
REMAINS CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUING TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN RESULTING IN
PERSISTENT RARE LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN
CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR THE WEAK GRADIENT TO CONTINUE. NORTHERLY
SWELL OF UP TO 8 FT WILL ATTEMPT TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGES BY MON.
WARNINGS...
ATLC...
.NONE.
CARIBBEAN...
AMZ084
TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 11N W OF 82W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.
FORECASTER LEWITSKY
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