838
AGXX40 KNHC 280639 RRA
MIMATS
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
145 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2009
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W
GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRES CENTER WILL MOVE E OVER THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA AROUND
SUNRISE THIS MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW CURRENTLY AT 5
TO 10 KT INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE NW WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND FURTHER INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRES SHIFTS E TO FL PANHANDLE. LITTLE CHANGE TILL NEXT
FRONT MOVES TO TEXAS COAST SUNRISE MON AND ABRUPTLY STALLS FROM
NW FLORIDA TO A FRONTAL WAVE AT 27N95W...WITH FRONT CONTINUING S
TO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE AT SUNRISE TUE. N TO NE FLOW IN WAKE
OF FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH 30 KT MAX AS EARLY AS MON AFTERNOON
WITH SEAS TO PERHAPS 10 FT. MODELS AGREE WITH FRONTAL WAVE
DEEPENING INTO LOW PRES CENTER MON NIGHT...THEN RACING NE ALONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SE LOUISIANA LATE TUE AND OVER SE ALABAMA
SUNRISE WED. LOW WILL THEN DRAG COLD FRONT E AGAIN TO POSITION
FROM FLORIDA BIG BEND TO NW YUCATAN PENINSULA WED AFTERNOON AND
SE OF GULF AROUND SUNRISE THU. EXPECT WINDS TO MAX AT 30 KT BOTH
SIDES OF FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. GUIDANCE CURRENTLY NOT
HINTING AT GALE IN THE CAA BEHIND FRONT BUT IN THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW E OF FRONT OVER NE WATERS WED. LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN
SOUTHERLY WINDS GALE THIS PACKAGE ON DAY 5. MAX SEAS SHOULD BE
11 FT BOTH SIDES OF FRONT.
SW N ATLC...
COLD FRONT FROM 31N60W TO WINDWARD PASSAGE ATTM BEHAVING AS
FORECAST AND SHOULD REACH ALONG LINE 28N55W TO HISPANIOLA LATE
TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERN SEGMENT WEAKENING TO A SHEAR AXIS FROM 20N
TO 23N BETWEEN 72W AND 55W ON SUN. NW WINDS BEHIND FRONT AT
MAX OF 20 KT PER 01Z AND 03Z ASCAT PASSES. SEAS ARE RUNNING 8 TO
13 FT NE OF THE BAHAMIAN CHAIN. EXPECTING 12 FT SEAS TO SHIFT E
OF 65W MIDDAY SUN BUT A 10 TO 12 SECOND NW TO N SWELL TO PUSH S
OVER WATERS E OF 70W THROUGH SUN NIGHT. SEAS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TO ABOUT 8 FT BY THE TIME THEY REACH THE TROPICAL
WATERS ALONG 23N MIDDAY SUN. N TO NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT OVER
BAHAMAS WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT TODAY AND BECOME E 10 KT
OVER NW BAHAMAS SUN FOR COMFORTABLE RETURN PASSAGE TO SE FLORIDA
SUN AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT SE BAHAMAS THROUGH
LATE SUN WITH NORTHERLY SEAS TO 7 FT EXPOSED ATLC PASSAGES.
POST FRONTAL RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO GRAND BAHAMA
SUNRISE MON AND LIE E TO W ALONG 27N MON NIGHT AS NEXT FRONT
MOVES OFF GEORGIA COAST ACCOMPANIED BY A 15 TO 20 KT WIND SHIFT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH ATLC WATERS N OF BAHAMAS TUE AND TUE NIGHT.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY CLOCK BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KT OVER AREA N OF BAHAMAS W OF 75W WED
IN ADVANCE OF STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING OFF GEORGIA WED NIGHT.
GUIDANCE HINTING AT SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE N OF 30N AHEAD OF FRONT
WED BUT LITTLE CONFIDENCE ATTM.
CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
FRONT DISSIPATING FROM WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NE HONDURAS ATTM.
WINDS N OF THE FRONT STILL AT 20 TO 25 KT PER 03Z ASCAT PASS.
SEEMS LIKE N SEGMENT OF FRONT WILL SOON BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MAY
NOT REACH MONA PASSAGE...BUT MEANDER ALONG 20N INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT NW
CARIBBEAN EARLY TONIGHT. GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT 20 OCCASIONALLY
25 KT...ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH EXTENDED PERIOD. 9 TO 11
SECOND N SWELLS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT WILL REACH ALONG 22N AROUND
SUNSET SUN CONTINUING S TO ALONG 15N E OF THE CARIBBEAN MON
NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP NW CARIBBEAN MON...AND INCREASES
TO 15 TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT FRONT IN YUCATAN
CHANNEL WED NIGHT. NE TO E TRADES AT A5 TO 20 KT ELSEWHERE.
WARNINGS...
ATLC...
.NONE.
CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.
GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.
FORECASTER NELSON
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