572
ACUS48 KWNS 280854
SWOD48
SPC AC 280853
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2009
VALID 011200Z - 061200Z
..DISCUSSION
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY MID TO LATE WEEK
ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ECMWF AND GFS
MAINTAIN RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IN EJECTING UPPER LOW /NOW CLOSING
OFF OVER CA/ ACROSS TX/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY. GFS FORECASTS A MORE RAPID LOSS OF
AMPLIFICATION AND RESULTANT FASTER EJECTION ACROSS THE SRN
APPALACHIANS INTO THE CAROLINAS DAY 5/6...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS
A SLOWER/MORE CLOSED SYSTEM LONGER. REGARDLESS...APPEARS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN WILL OVERSPREAD THE NERN GOM DURING THE MID TO LATE
WEEK AHEAD OF THIS IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE SERN U.S. SHEAR VALUES SHOULD REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION AS BROKEN SQUALL LINE DEVELOPS
AND SPREADS ESEWD AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH ATTENDANT THREATS OF DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED
TORNADOES.
..EVANS.. 11/28/2009
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