955
ACUS03 KWNS 210715
SWODY3
SPC AC 210713
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0113 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
..SYNOPSIS/FCST
VIGOROUS UPR TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CNTRL/NRN ROCKIES
LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL CLOSE OFF INTO A LOW OVER THE CNTRL/SRN
PLNS ON MONDAY. SYSTEM WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE HIGH PLNS
WITH THE LOW DEVELOPING INTO THE MID-MO VLY BY 12Z TUE. TRAILING
THE LOW...A CDFNT WILL SWEEP SEWD ACROSS THE PLNS...REACHING ERN
NEB/KS AND CNTRL OK/TX BY EARLY TUESDAY.
WAVELENGTH BETWEEN THE WEEKEND SYSTEM AND AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE
WILL BE SHORT AND RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT ONLY A PARTIALLY MODIFIED
GULF AIR MASS NWD INTO THE PLNS AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. TSTM POTENTIAL
WILL PROBABLY BE MAXIMIZED ALONG/N OF THE RED RVR VLY WHERE
STRONGEST LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT...NAMELY FROM
PARTS OF THE LWR MO VLY SWD INTO ERN OK. INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK
AND NO SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ATTM.
OTHERWISE...FARTHER S...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY AN
H85-H7 WARM NOSE /OWING TO MEAN WLY FLOW ALONG BASE OF THE TROUGH/
AND LACK OF OVERALL FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD PROVE DETRIMENTAL IN
SUPPORTING DEEP MOIST CONVECTION.
..RACY.. 11/21/2009
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