Extended Range Tornado Activity Forecasts (ERTAF)

Latest Forecast Issued: Sunday 5 June 2016 9:45 PM CDT

Week 2 Forecast

12 June - 18 June

Average (A)

Medium Confidence

Week 3 Forecast

19 June - 25 June

Above Average (AA)

Low Confidence


The next forecast is due by 12 June 2016 at 9:00 PM CDT

An information page with explanation of statistics below can be found here.

FCSTDATE

FCST2START

FCST2END

FCST3START

FCST3END

CLIMO2

CLIMO3

ACT2

ACT3

PN2

PN3

ACT2C

ACT3C

FCST2

FCST3

VERF2

VERF3

2/28/2016

3/6/2016

3/12/2016

3/13/2016

3/19/2016

14.6

13.9

7

31

48%

223%

BA

AA

AA

AA

-1

1

3/6/2016

3/13/2016

3/19/2016

3/20/2016

3/26/2016

13.9

13.5

31

8

223%

59%

AA

BA

AA

A

1

0

3/13/2016

3/20/2016

3/26/2016

3/27/2016

4/2/2016

13.5

25.0

8

30

59%

120%

BA

A

A

A

0

1

3/20/2016

3/27/2016

4/2/2016

4/3/2016

4/9/2016

25.0

30.0

30

14

120%

 47%

A

BA

BA

A

0

0

3/27/2016

4/3/2016

4/9/2016

4/10/2016

4/16/2016

30.0

38.2

14

16

47%

 42%

BA

BA

BA

BA

1

1

4/3/2016

4/10/2016

4/16/2016

4/17/2016

4/23/2016

38.2

36.3

16

3

42%

8%

BA

 BA

BA

AA

1

-1

 4/10/2016

4/17/2016 

4/23/2016

4/24/2016

4/30/2016

36.3

53,2

 3

68

8%

127%

BA

AA

AA

A

-1

0

4/17/2016

4/24/2016

4/30/2016

5/1/2016

5/7/2016

53.2

52.9

 68

15

127%

28%

AA

BA

AA

AA

1

-1

 4/24/2016

5/1/2016 

5/7/2016

5/8/2016

5/14/2016

52.9

56.5

15

65

28%

115%

BA

A

BA

A

1

1

 5/1/2016 

5/8/2016

5/14/2016

5/15/2016

5/21/2016

 56.5

48.6

65

21

115%

43% A BA BA A

0

0

 5/8/2016

5/15/2016 

5/21/2016

5/22/2016

5/28/2016

48.6

59.9

21

124

43%

212%

BA

AA

A

A

0

0

 5/15/2016 

5/22/2016

5/28/2016

5/29/2016

6/4/2016

59.9

67.3

124

14

212%

21% AA  BA A BA 0 1

 5/22/2016

5/29/2016 

6/4/2016

6/5/2016

6/11/2016

67.3

62

14

 

21%

 

BA

 

BA

A

1

 

 5/29/2016 

6/5/2016

6/11/2016

6/12/2016

6/18/2016

62

52.5

 

 

 

     

BA

A

   

 6/5/2016

6/12/2016 

6/18/2016

6/19/2016

6/25/2016

52.5

43.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

A

AA

 

 

                                 

All tornado report data is from the Storm Prediction Center and should be considered preliminary pending final review.

 

Forecast synopsis:

Breakdown/retrogression of the west CONUS ridge from week 1 will lead to a more active severe weather regime (biased to the central and northern Great Plains) by the beginning of week 2. Some uncertainty exists regarding the exact placement of the polar jet, and if a majority of the most favorable tornado environments will reside in the US or Canada. By week 3, continued retrogression of the west North America anticyclone and longwave troughs digging into the western CONUS should allow for favorable severe weather environments through the end of June, generally in the climatologically favored areas. This is still a Low confidence forecast, however, due to the slowly waning nature of the atmospheric ENSO signal.


Forecasters: Marinaro  |  Gold  |  Sirvatka  |  Gensini  |  Allen

 

Verification Legend

-1

0

1

More than 50% of Normal Error

No More than 50% of Normal Error

Correct % of Normal Threshold

Forecast Archive : 2015 |

An information page with explanation of column headers can be found here.

 

Contributors:  John Allen  |  Brad Barrett  |  Victor Gensini  |  David Gold  |  Alan Marinaro  |  Paul Sirvatka

 

© 2016  Victor Gensini