Extended Range Tornado Activity Forecasts (ERTAF)

Latest Forecast Issued: Sunday 22 May 2016 11:15 PM CDT

Week 2 Forecast

29 May - 4 June

Below Average (BA)

Medium Confidence

Week 3 Forecast

5 June - 11 June

Average (A)

Low Confidence


The next forecast is due by 29 May 2016 at 9:00 PM CDT

An information page with explanation of statistics below can be found here.

FCSTDATE

FCST2START

FCST2END

FCST3START

FCST3END

CLIMO2

CLIMO3

ACT2

ACT3

PN2

PN3

ACT2C

ACT3C

FCST2

FCST3

VERF2

VERF3

2/28/2016

3/6/2016

3/12/2016

3/13/2016

3/19/2016

14.6

13.9

7

31

48%

223%

BA

AA

AA

AA

-1

1

3/6/2016

3/13/2016

3/19/2016

3/20/2016

3/26/2016

13.9

13.5

31

8

223%

59%

AA

BA

AA

A

1

0

3/13/2016

3/20/2016

3/26/2016

3/27/2016

4/2/2016

13.5

25.0

8

30

59%

120%

BA

A

A

A

0

1

3/20/2016

3/27/2016

4/2/2016

4/3/2016

4/9/2016

25.0

30.0

30

14

120%

 47%

A

BA

BA

A

0

0

3/27/2016

4/3/2016

4/9/2016

4/10/2016

4/16/2016

30.0

38.2

14

16

47%

 42%

BA

BA

BA

BA

1

1

4/3/2016

4/10/2016

4/16/2016

4/17/2016

4/23/2016

38.2

36.3

16

3

42%

8%

BA

 BA

BA

AA

1

-1

 4/10/2016

4/17/2016 

4/23/2016

4/24/2016

4/30/2016

36.3

53,2

 3

68

8%

127%

BA

AA

AA

A

-1

0

4/17/2016

4/24/2016

4/30/2016

5/1/2016

5/7/2016

53.2

52.9

 68

15

127%

28%

AA

BA

AA

AA

1

-1

 4/24/2016

5/1/2016 

5/7/2016

5/8/2016

5/14/2016

52.9

56.5

15

P

28%

P

BA

A

BA

A

1

1

 5/1/2016 

5/8/2016

5/14/2016

5/15/2016

5/21/2016

 56.5

48.6

P

P

P

P A P BA A 0 P

 5/8/2016

5/15/2016 

5/21/2016

5/22/2016

5/28/2016

48.6

59.9

P

P

P

P

P

P

A

A

P

P

 5/15/2016 

5/22/2016

5/28/2016

5/29/2016

6/4/2016

59.9

 

P

P

P

P P P A BA P P

 5/22/2016

5/29/2016 

6/4/2016

6/5/2016

6/11/2016

 

 

P

P

P

P

P

P

BA

A

P

P

                                 
                                 

All tornado report data is from the Storm Prediction Center and should be considered preliminary pending final review.

 

Forecast synopsis:

No formal forecast discussion occurred due to field work.


Forecasters: Gensini

 

Verification Legend

-1

0

1

More than 50% of Normal Error

No More than 50% of Normal Error

Correct % of Normal Threshold

Forecast Archive : 2015 |

An information page with explanation of column headers can be found here.

 

Contributors:  John Allen  |  Brad Barrett  |  Victor Gensini  |  David Gold  |  Alan Marinaro  |  Paul Sirvatka

 

© 2016  Victor Gensini